Trades & SC 2016

[M4TT B8S]

I won't be touching Malceski unless he has a preseason of like 100+ score after 100+ after 100+, if you look at his history before 2014 and 2013 his average of 71 isn't that uncharacteristic for him, Bartel we just need him to average 95+ not 100+ like if we had him in the forwardline, and although he's old I think his history suggests that's below par for him. So should manage 95 avg

I had Bennell last year then got rid of him during the cocaine shit and he came back and killed it, so I know what it's like to be burned by him, just hoping lightning doesn't strike twice... Will consider Dahlhaus ahead of Bennell though, I won't hesitate to smack in another Bulldog

If I don't get Shaw I'll have to get Boyd, and well, as much as I hate to say it, don't think he can average 105+, especially without getting rested (effectively costing me a couple points in those weeks when I have to field a bench player)... Big risk not getting Shaw because he's so far ahead of the pack and other options are limited. [Even if he doesn't score that well I'd rather have him than not have him and he do well, if that makes sense]

I really like the potential of Sinclair, very happy to have him R2, then transfer him to forwardline when I'm upgrading rookies (and bring in someone like Goldy or Jacobs)

 

[M4TT B8S]

I know Malceski scored better when Ablett was in the side, 91 and 94 in round 15 and 16... But he scores well again in rounds 22 and 23 (But Ablett didn't play 22 and 23) Ablett was probably a contributing factor but my theory is in round 15 and 16 Saad didn't play, and again in round 22 and 23 Saad didn't play.

Just a theory, and I didn't go to any GC games, and didn't watch them every week so just a stats theory but I think it makes sense

 

[doddy2731]

I know Malceski scored better when Ablett was in the side, 91 and 94 in round 15 and 16... But he scores well again in rounds 22 and 23 (But Ablett didn't play 22 and 23) Ablett was probably a contributing factor but my theory is in round 15 and 16 Saad didn't play, and again in round 22 and 23 Saad didn't play.

Just a theory, and I didn't go to any GC games, and didn't watch them every week so just a stats theory but I think it makes sense

For sure, but he is one to watch and at that price you have to. If all my backman can average 85-90 with maybe one or two around the 100 mark i'll be happy.
Another one to watch is Doherty i had him last year and was happy with his consistency he will improve again this year i think.

 

[M4TT B8S]

Nic Nat vs Stefan Martin for number 1 ruck?
Nic Nat (560k) averaged 115 after round 7 (would price him at 620k)
Stefan (597k) could potentially rise value with Leue leaving

your thoughts?

 

[jazz]

Gee I like both Martin and NicNat.

At this stage I will be rolling with Goldstein and Jacobs. They missed 4 and 2 matches over the last 4 seasons respectively. Combine that with top tier scoring capacity and I really can't say no.

If there are 2 legit rookie rucks I can see myself going with premo/rook/rook at the rucks. I am not familiar with the rookies yet however.

 

[jazz]

My question to you is will you start Shaw?
I'm not I think being full price he can be picked up cheaper into the season, he is know for slow starts, and in his last few seasons struggled to average 100 early let alone 110+ or there abouts.

Your thought?

As someone who didn't have Shaw in my team last year I could pick him up this year. He's gonna cost a heap for a guy who ALMOST ALWAYS FAILS TO PLAY 20 GAMES PER SEASON (my motto last year fyi).

But the guy might have found his niche at GWS. And I coulda said something similar about Gray last season but he churned out another 100ppg. I will need to think on this choice harder over the PS to say lock or not, and also consider the scoring power of the other premos in the backs. 110ppg back there is valuable.

 

[doddy2731]

At the moment i'm running with Blics and Nic Nat in the Rucks. This year these two will be huge, and both around $560k is very juicy.

 

[The Kraken]

Nic Nat vs Stefan Martin for number 1 ruck?
Nic Nat (560k) averaged 115 after round 7 (would price him at 620k)
Stefan (597k) could potentially rise value with Leue leaving

your thoughts?

Martin averaged 118 in the games without Leuenberger - so while he's pricey there is upside to his price (priced at 2015 avg of 111).. Personally leaning towards a Martin/Goldy combo - Goldy also expensive but averaged 142 over last 14 games - so IMO he can arguably justify his price tag (priced at 129). Don't mind NicNat - priced at 104 and averaged 115 over last 13 games..

 

[The Kraken]

As someone who didn't have Shaw in my team last year I could pick him up this year. He's gonna cost a heap for a guy who ALMOST ALWAYS FAILS TO PLAY 20 GAMES PER SEASON (my motto last year fyi).

But the guy might have found his niche at GWS. And I coulda said something similar about Gray last season but he churned out another 100ppg. I will need to think on this choice harder over the PS to say lock or not, and also consider the scoring power of the other premos in the backs. 110ppg back there is valuable.

Personally i don't think i can start with Heater - personally prefer to upgrade to him instead. Last year (112 avg) was a big jump over his 92-101 average from 2011-2014.. and because the Magic Number decreases during the year (**), Heater will have to increase his average to 115/116 just to HOLD his price (in a "normal" year, see below). While Heater might again be the clear #1 defender and could increase his average again, given last year was the first time since 2007 that he's averaged >101, i don't think he's tremendous value. But happy to be wrong on this one!


** Magic Number (which starts off being a player's 2016 price divided by his 2015 average (so for 2016 the MN is 5,396)) decreases during the season in order to factor in scoring from basement-priced rookies. Normally the MN decrease is ~3-4% over a season, but this year with the Bombers debacle the fall might end up being closer to the 6-7% decrease we saw with GC and GWS's first years))

 

[doddy2731]

Personally i don't think i can start with Heater - personally prefer to upgrade to him instead. Last year (112 avg) was a big jump over his 92-101 average from 2011-2014.. and because the Magic Number decreases during the year (**), Heater will have to increase his average to 115/116 just to HOLD his price (in a "normal" year, see below). While Heater might again be the clear #1 defender and could increase his average again, given last year was the first time since 2007 that he's averaged >101, i don't think he's tremendous value. But happy to be wrong on this one!

That's exactly what I'm thinking, this and a known slow starter has me concerned with paying top $.

 

[jazz]

Personally i don't think i can start with Heater - personally prefer to upgrade to him instead. Last year (112 avg) was a big jump over his 92-101 average from 2011-2014.. and because the Magic Number decreases during the year (**), Heater will have to increase his average to 115/116 just to HOLD his price (in a "normal" year, see below). While Heater might again be the clear #1 defender and could increase his average again, given last year was the first time since 2007 that he's averaged >101, i don't think he's tremendous value. But happy to be wrong on this one!


** Magic Number (which starts off being a player's 2016 price divided by his 2015 average (so for 2016 the MN is 5,396)) decreases during the season in order to factor in scoring from basement-priced rookies. Normally the MN decrease is ~3-4% over a season, but this year with the Bombers debacle the fall might end up being closer to the 6-7% decrease we saw with GC and GWS's first years))

Yea I'm not really sold because of the fact he misses games. I don't really see any reason he should score higher, he scored 112ppg last year! But if I knew he could scored 110ppg this year I would start him. At this stage I won't be though.

 

[M4TT B8S]

Thoughts on Elliot Yeo in defense 443k dpp mid/def? My mate's trying to convince me he's a lock, I'm not yet sold, but there were 6 games Yeo played midfield... His scores were 119, 146, 111, 118, 129 and 92... if he does anything similar to that I can't afford not to have him, your thoughts? and who do I drop out of Shaw, McVeigh, Bartel and Smith to get him, I'm thinking Bartel at the moment because I think Geelong will be trying to fade him out of the midfield

Adam Simpson also apparently sees him as a fulltime midfielder floating forward

 

[Tono]

Can see the potential in Yeo but he's far from a lock at $443k. Sure he had some solid scores but he also bombed hard in the last 6 or 7 rounds.

If he played pure mid you would think he could ave 100 possibly, but with the additions of Redden and Jetta on top of Priddis, Shuey, Masten and Gaff just don't see him getting the time. Add Hutchings to that list also, really emerged late.

Besides Priddis think I'll leave the Eagles largely alone. Simpson seems to very much be building a Hawthorn type list where players will fill a variety of roles on a needs basis - as we've seen with the Hawks that doesn't translate into top end SC scoring

 

[M4TT B8S]

Can see the potential in Yeo but he's far from a lock at $443k. Sure he had some solid scores but he also bombed hard in the last 6 or 7 rounds.

If he played pure mid you would think he could ave 100 possibly, but with the additions of Redden and Jetta on top of Priddis, Shuey, Masten and Gaff just don't see him getting the time. Add Hutchings to that list also, really emerged late.

Besides Priddis think I'll leave the Eagles largely alone. Simpson seems to very much be building a Hawthorn type list where players will fill a variety of roles on a needs basis - as we've seen with the Hawks that doesn't translate into top end SC scoring

100% agree with you over what my mate was saying, good to know thanks mate

 

[Tono]

100% agree with you over what my mate was saying, good to know thanks mate

Haha don't thank me yet. If Yeo comes out and pulls big no's you'll be spewing and have your mate ribbing you for eternity. Just think there's enough there to discount him as a lock. $440k has the markings of the classic mid price trap - 20% of them work out, can set up your season if you get them right though.

 

[Tono]

Think I saw you guys discussing Rosa earlier in the thread. Player for player I'd have him ahead of Yeo - purely based on the opportunities he should get. Smith looks like he will be popular at the same price point - not sure how many of these types you would want to be risking on the defensive line.

 

[doddy2731]

Don't think Yeo is worth to much thought as Tono has touched on, also that guy is just so inconstant he would drive me insane. As for role I suppose we have to just watch over pre-season to see how he maybe used.
I've really moved away from Rosa at the moment he just raises to many what if's and I just can't see him moving out of that 75-85 avg anytime soon.
I starting to lean more toward Docherty, super consistent and each year improving on his avg. I can see him doing the same this year and moving into the mid 90's.

 

[M4TT B8S]

As it is Shaw, McVeigh, Bartel and Smith is my set up, it's very hard to persuade me away from that set up... Potentially dropping Shaw to Rance if I decide Shaw is well overpriced or dropping Bartel to Yeo if Yeo kills the preseason, I'm also a big Yarran believer but won't start him with how many other strong options there are

 

[doddy2731]

The addition of Crowley to the Dons may make it interesting for the Captain choice in R1!

 

[doddy2731]

As it is Shaw, McVeigh, Bartel and Smith is my set up, it's very hard to persuade me away from that set up... Potentially dropping Shaw to Rance if I decide Shaw is well overpriced or dropping Bartel to Yeo if Yeo kills the preseason, I'm also a big Yarran believer but won't start him with how many other strong options there are

I can't get my head around paying for Shaw this year and this may just bite my arse, also feeling that this year may just not be Jimmy's year another decision that may come back to haunt me, I really think that he will be nursed through the year. Smith should be in for a good year.

I'm looking at injecting players that are going to be hungry and wont be rested.
Looking at Houli, and seriously thinking Seedsman instead of Smith, Seedsman been talked up for a role on the wing.
Aish is another that currently sits in my side at R5, I think the change will do him good and will get a lot of TOG, and will be a quick stepping stone or maybe even a R6 keeper.