Trades & SC 2016

[M4TT B8S]

I can't get my head around paying for Shaw this year and this may just bite my arse, also feeling that this year may just not be Jimmy's year another decision that may come back to haunt me, I really think that he will be nursed through the year. Smith should be in for a good year.

I'm looking at injecting players that are going to be hungry and wont be rested.
Looking at Houli, and seriously thinking Seedsman instead of Smith, Seedsman been talked up for a role on the wing.
Aish is another that currently sits in my side at R5, I think the change will do him good and will get a lot of TOG, and will be a quick stepping stone or maybe even a R6 keeper.

Remember Ramadan, 4 weeks that Houli will starve himself and score crap. I'll pick him up after that when he's nice and cheap then he can average 95-100 after that for me won't pick him (not because I don't think he'll average well, just because he'll have a bad patch so we can pick him up super cheap later, straight swap from a good rookie like Francis)

 

[M4TT B8S]

The addition of Crowley to the Dons may make it interesting for the Captain choice in R1!

Well R3 Collingwood Wyatt/Cox won't play Round 1, VC Ablett (plays before Collingwood) then C on Rockliff I think (against Eagles) or loophole the Ablett score using Collingwood R3 options

 

[doddy2731]

Well R3 Collingwood Wyatt/Cox won't play Round 1, VC Ablett (plays before Collingwood) then C on Rockliff I think (against Eagles) or loophole the Ablett score using Collingwood R3 options

What are you going to do when there's 2 weeks to go before the bounce mate? With so much planning you could take a holiday!

 

[doddy2731]

Remember Ramadan, 4 weeks that Houli will starve himself and score crap. I'll pick him up after that when he's nice and cheap then he can average 95-100 after that for me won't pick him (not because I don't think he'll average well, just because he'll have a bad patch so we can pick him up super cheap later, straight swap from a good rookie like Francis)

I was just looking at when Ramadan starts and it falls well with the Tigs Bye too. Ramadan starts June 6th (end of R11) then plays R12, sits out R13, then back R14 and R15 they play Port in Adelaide, so like you said could fall a bit and could be a cheap get.
Saying that though last year his scores didn't suffer to much with scores of 97, 61, 117, 65. So basically scored like every other back man last year. He played the entire 4 weeks of Ramadan last season, this year will only have 3.

 

[M4TT B8S]

I was having a closer look at Lobbe, don't think he's worth touching, I'd rather a midpricer up forward like Bird than the Lobbe pick, in 2014 Lobbe averaged 31.7 hitouts (10.5 disposals), and ~100 supercoaach, 2015 although Ryder was in the team he averaged 30.4 hitouts (8.3 disposals)

Without Ryder in the team for 4 games Lobbe averaged 90.75 this year (seems good for 390k but only one score over 85, so don't expect that every week)

I know Port's midfield wasn't great this year, and I do expect Lobbe to improve to maybe 85-90 avg, but I think his scoring drop was mostly down to the new ruck scoring system in 2015 not the fact that Ryder was there... Bird I expect him to average 100-105 so for 40k cheaper than Lobbe seems a no brainer

I also think Nic Nat and Stefan Martin are more likely to average 115 than any 550k-600k forwards, [Relevant because if I got Lobbe instead of one of them I'd be replacing Bird with someone like Bennell or Dahlhaus]

 

[M4TT B8S]

Probably mainly down to how Port's midfield will go.

 

[doddy2731]

Lobbe is not worth it. Just not enough upside to him at all.

 

[Tono]

I was having a closer look at Lobbe, don't think he's worth touching, I'd rather a midpricer up forward like Bird than the Lobbe pick, in 2014 Lobbe averaged 31.7 hitouts (10.5 disposals), and ~100 supercoaach, 2015 although Ryder was in the team he averaged 30.4 hitouts (8.3 disposals)

Without Ryder in the team for 4 games Lobbe averaged 90.75 this year (seems good for 390k but only one score over 85, so don't expect that every week)

I know Port's midfield wasn't great this year, and I do expect Lobbe to improve to maybe 85-90 avg, but I think his scoring drop was mostly down to the new ruck scoring system in 2015 not the fact that Ryder was there... Bird I expect him to average 100-105 so for 40k cheaper than Lobbe seems a no brainer

I also think Nic Nat and Stefan Martin are more likely to average 115 than any 550k-600k forwards, [Relevant because if I got Lobbe instead of one of them I'd be replacing Bird with someone like Bennell or Dahlhaus]

Looking at both Bird and Lobbe also.

Not 100% against Lobbe. No competition, Dixon is the only other candidate and he can't stay on the park.

Agree that he didn't look great last year, clearly didn't gel with Ryder - surprised by the stats you've referenced, they're quite similar yet the scoring is wildly different... Your point about the ruck scoring system makes a lot of sense, wonder if those ruckmen affected last season will regain some of the ground they lost due to the big men spending more time on field this year (interchange cap changes).

'If' he looks strong in the PS he will be high on my radar. Reckon he could comfortably hit 95ppg and at $390k that would work. The ideal plan would most likely be gain some value out of him and pick a top-liner up on the way down (assuming Goldy, Martin, Jacobs come down of course).

As a Don fan I'm keen for Bird to do well and think he'll get plenty of opportunities but the fact we will get steamrolled every week rings some alarm bells. Mark Murphy springs to mind - he's averaged 110+ 4 times before, only mustered 103 last year in a pretty solid year... He is clearly a better player than Bird with a scoring history and barely broke 100, makes me think at best Bird will hit 90ppg - 80ppg would be my best guess.

 

[M4TT B8S]

Looking at both Bird and Lobbe also.

As a Don fan I'm keen for Bird to do well and think he'll get plenty of opportunities but the fact we will get steamrolled every week rings some alarm bells. Mark Murphy springs to mind - he's averaged 110+ 4 times before, only mustered 103 last year in a pretty solid year... He is clearly a better player than Bird with a scoring history and barely broke 100, makes me think at best Bird will hit 90ppg - 80ppg would be my best guess.

Bird played as a tagger in Sydney, and a huge disposal getter in the NEAFL (and was able to break close tags and still get 30-35 touches) but Sydney's deep midfield meant when he came in he had to play a role, compare him to Tom Mitchell when he came in and got a genuine opportunity... Maybe not 100-105 but if not that I definitely think he'll average 95-100 at a minimum

 

[M4TT B8S]

Murphy will have obviously also suffered as Judd tapered off, and probably a little due to the team, but he also didn't seem to like the way Mick coached. After he 'left' this year Murphy averaged 112 over 11 weeks.

[didn't count the last game because he got injured in the 3rd quarter, but it was going to be a big one anyway]

 

[M4TT B8S]

Picken is another example of a tagger being set free, once he started getting the ball he went from 60-70 averages up above 108 (after round 3 this year) I know Dogs were flying, but even in a lesser team, don't think Bird will suffer that much, if Picken can go up to 108 I think Bird reaches 95-105

Also Crowley being with him now takes that risk away of him ever having to do it again if there ever was that risk

+If you take out Bird's sub game in 2014 he actually averaged 91-92 that year... And after that his Heat Map still had him forward often enough to be dpp again in 2015, wasn't getting a full go in the midfield like he will this year at the Dons

 

[Tono]

Nice work! Hope you're right, if he averages 95+ he'll turn out to be a must have with his starting price.

Looking at Murphy's stats you've quoted he presents some value and will surely be a POD

 

[M4TT B8S]

Nice work! Hope you're right, if he averages 95+ he'll turn out to be a must have with his starting price.

Looking at Murphy's stats you've quoted he presents some value and will surely be a POD

thanks haha, I hope I'm right too... Otherwise I'll have convinced everyone to get him and if he flops it's on me

 

[M4TT B8S]

My current structure I'm looking at has a potential to have another value premium in the middle 560k or less (Pendles, Ablett, Selwood, Rockliff already have) current guys I'm looking at are Marc Murphy, Dion Prestia, Dylan Shiel or Ollie Wines, your thoughts?

 

[Tono]

Hard to go wrong with any of those. Ollie Wines only because I love how hard at it he is - don't see those 4 being separated by much at all.

You could put Luke Parker in also, feel a changing of the guard coming on at Sydney.

 

[M4TT B8S]

Hard to go wrong with any of those. Ollie Wines only because I love how hard at it he is - don't see those 4 being separated by much at all.

You could put Luke Parker in also, feel a changing of the guard coming on at Sydney.

I think Sydney premiers this year (maybe dogs? hahaha)... Very good point bringing up Parker, will look into him

 

[M4TT B8S]

Murphy thinks Suckling is much better than he expected, one of the dogs best so far in the preseason... Don't think I'll pick him but ofcourse will be watching him closely

 

[Steve]

Selwood looks like missing the entire NAB cup with a plantar fascia issue and may even be in doubt for round 1. I've had him locked since prices came out. Not sure I can risk it now.

 

[TomCat]

Agree with you @Steve. With the news of Selwood's injury today I can't see him in my starting team.

He had been a lock for me as well.

 

[doddy2731]

Selwood to risky now, been on light duties for over a month. Bit like Fyfe and his back, just can't be careful enough with those types of injuries. Definitely to risky to pick to start with now surely.