Round 11 Trades

[Lowrider]

Stef Martin is killing me. Will be under 400K next week. WTF do I do. Was planning on Hewett > Mathieson and Kerridge > Hanners. Need a few nights sleep to think about it.

Here's my take on Stef. Bear in mind I've never been a fan of picking him in SC... he's more of an AF/DT scorer. I argued preseason that he couldn't score any better than he has, at best he could maintain his average but wasn't going to go any higher. Unfortunately for those that backed him in he's gone down.
- He is seen as a uber-premium ruck. My concern with this is he has only shown 18 months of uber scoring which started when he was 28yo. Before that he was a spud. At the Demons he couldn't get a game in the ruck and whenever he did he played forward and couldn't get near it. It was only at the Lions when he was essentially the last option after Leuy and West got injured that he got a game and exploded with form. History says guys like this who explode so late in their career or completely out of the blue rarely maintain it for multiple seasons.
- He is not great in the ruck contests. If West is fit and performing well in the ruck contests (like he is currently) I can see him continuing to get games. Problem is Martin won't score well if he isn't the sole ruck.
- The May hit probably made things worse, but he wasn't flying up until that point in the year either. He didn't have an AF/DT ton up to that point (probably the best guide to his form) and was averaging about 104 in SC. His kick/handball ratio has plummeted as well which will affect his scoring, that is possibly as a consequence of him getting less marks around the ground which is another concern.
- He's nearly 30yo, as I've said before sometimes these big blokes hit the wall at this age (e.g. Maric, Minson) so I can't be confident he will bounce back from here.

Ultimately I think you have no option but to hold him and hope he comes good or West gets injured. If you have no other concerns and the cash to spend then a trade is an option, but only if you're going to go up to one of the top 3 which will cost you ~$150k. If you're going to make that call you have to do it now because he'll be down around $375k next week, if you hold him beyond this week you've committed for the season in my book.

 

[Dino]

Here's my take on Stef. Bear in mind I've never been a fan of picking him in SC... he's more of an AF/DT scorer. I argued preseason that he couldn't score any better than he has, at best he could maintain his average but wasn't going to go any higher. Unfortunately for those that backed him in he's gone down.
- He is seen as a uber-premium ruck. My concern with this is he has only shown 18 months of uber scoring which started when he was 28yo. Before that he was a spud. At the Demons he couldn't get a game in the ruck and whenever he did he played forward and couldn't get near it. It was only at the Lions when he was essentially the last option after Leuy and West got injured that he got a game and exploded with form. History says guys like this who explode so late in their career or completely out of the blue rarely maintain it for multiple seasons.
- He is not great in the ruck contests. If West is fit and performing well in the ruck contests (like he is currently) I can see him continuing to get games. Problem is Martin won't score well if he isn't the sole ruck.
- The May hit probably made things worse, but he wasn't flying up until that point in the year either. He didn't have an AF/DT ton up to that point (probably the best guide to his form) and was averaging about 104 in SC. His kick/handball ratio has plummeted as well which will affect his scoring, that is possibly as a consequence of him getting less marks around the ground which is another concern.
- He's nearly 30yo, as I've said before sometimes these big blokes hit the wall at this age (e.g. Maric, Minson) so I can't be confident he will bounce back from here.

Ultimately I think you have no option but to hold him and hope he comes good or West gets injured. If you have no other concerns and the cash to spend then a trade is an option, but only if you're going to go up to one of the top 3 which will cost you ~$150k. If you're going to make that call you have to do it now because he'll be down around $375k next week, if you hold him beyond this week you've committed for the season in my book.

Appreciate the effort and detail you put into your post. All your points are pretty much spot on. Hind sight is a wonderful thing. I wouldn't contemplate anything less than trading to 1 of the top 3. Holding him would be a nail in my coffin in my cash league so I am putting him out to pasture. The decision is a little easier as the only forced trades I have made are Fyfe and Rocky so I have a decent amount of trades left, nice amount in the bank and no other issues.

Now just have to decide out of NN or Gawn.

 

[Steve]

Appreciate the effort and detail you put into your post. All your points are pretty much spot on. Hind sight is a wonderful thing. I wouldn't contemplate anything less than trading to 1 of the top 3. Holding him would be a nail in my coffin in my cash league so I am putting him out to pasture. The decision is a little easier as the only forced trades I have made are Fyfe and Rocky so I have a decent amount of trades left, nice amount in the bank and no other issues.

Now just have to decide out of NN or Gawn.

Gawn is just getting off one rollercoaster and onto another. Sure it's great to see 160 every 3rd week but when that is broken up with 40s and 70s, you're no better off. Go with Nicnat.

 

[Tevez17]

So Robbie Gray has never had s SC ton at the MCG and averages high 60's SC against Collingwood, maybe wait another week...?

 

[GeoffMack]

Stef Martin is killing me. Will be under 400K next week. WTF do I do. Was planning on Hewett > Mathieson and Kerridge > Hanners. Need a few nights sleep to think about it.

I hear ya!! I think now u just have to hold and hope his form will turn. Or craazy downgrade Stef to Cox free up cash, cox is scoring pretty much the same as Stef.

 

[GeoffMack]

So Robbie Gray has never had s SC ton at the MCG and averages high 60's SC against Collingwood, maybe wait another week...?

Yeah my thoughts exactly, Im thinking Greenwood will take Gray as the tag.

 

[GeoffMack]

A bit stuck for compatible out and in positions this week so going a bit riskier. Libba down to Mathison then BenKen to Zorko. Would have liked to strengthen the mids this week but just nothing on offer I'm happy to go down to on other lines. Gray coming in next week and SCollins too if he puts in an OK game this week and we don't get an FURL the following week.

Libba just not quite up to mid keeper the rate he is going.

Hold Libba. Noithing gained by trading his down to Mathison only wasting a trade. BenKen to Zork good.

 

[Lowrider]

Appreciate the effort and detail you put into your post. All your points are pretty much spot on. Hind sight is a wonderful thing. I wouldn't contemplate anything less than trading to 1 of the top 3. Holding him would be a nail in my coffin in my cash league so I am putting him out to pasture. The decision is a little easier as the only forced trades I have made are Fyfe and Rocky so I have a decent amount of trades left, nice amount in the bank and no other issues.

Now just have to decide out of NN or Gawn.

I don't think anyone would have predicted he would be going at 80 preseason.

Out of NN or Gawn - Gawn is a rollercoaster, but a great captaincy option. NN is very consistent this year, but doesn't go really big as often as Gawn. I think NN gets managed within games a lot more which limits his scoring, particularly when playing weak ruck combos or in games that are over by 3QT. Lycett has really emerged this season as well as a guy who will always be second fiddle but will be relied on to give NN a rest more often. Can't go wrong either way.... flip a coin!!

 

[kinggo]

Hold Libba. Noithing gained by trading his down to Mathison only wasting a trade. BenKen to Zork good.

I'd have to say everything to be gained by trading him. He isn't a keeper so will be a trade at some point. Is most likely at his highest point in price. Without using him to bring in Mathison with a view to then upgrade Mathison around the round 15 bye means that I'd be stuck looking for rookies to bring in on other lines - which I'm not keen on based off 1 week.

 

[tabs]

I'd have to say everything to be gained by trading him. He isn't a keeper so will be a trade at some point. Is most likely at his highest point in price. Without using him to bring in Mathison with a view to then upgrade Mathison around the round 15 bye means that I'd be stuck looking for rookies to bring in on other lines - which I'm not keen on based off 1 week.

Does it help or hinder your bye structure though?

 

[smirski]

im going M.brown to Paine and S.Martin to Goldy this week. It may change if west gets dropped though.

 

[tabs]

im going M.brown to Paine and S.Martin to Goldy this week. It may change if west gets dropped though.

reports Goldy may miss though

 

[Alex_25]

Need some help guys
This is what my team looks like at the moment

Currently have $31,900 in the bank

Def: Doherty, Simpson, Boyd, Smith, Birchall, KK (DBJ, Hartley)

Mid: Dangerfield, Parker, Ablett, Libba, S Mitchell, J Smith, Dunkley, McPherson (Davis, Gresham, Keays)

Ruck: Goldstien, Gawn (Chol)

Fwd: Dahlhaus, Martin, Zorko, Betts, Kerridge, Adams (Pertracca, Kommer)

I'm looking at getting in Rhys Mathieson and Robbie Gray in but it means I would have to trade libba and a rookie to do it.

Should I trade libba or is there someone else i should be looking at as a trade target

 

[tiltraise]

Need some help guys
This is what my team looks like at the moment

Currently have $31,900 in the bank

Def: Doherty, Simpson, Boyd, Smith, Birchall, KK (DBJ, Hartley)

Mid: Dangerfield, Parker, Ablett, Libba, S Mitchell, J Smith, Dunkley, McPherson (Davis, Gresham, Keays)

Ruck: Goldstien, Gawn (Chol)

Fwd: Dahlhaus, Martin, Zorko, Betts, Kerridge, Adams (Pertracca, Kommer)

I'm looking at getting in Rhys Mathieson and Robbie Gray in but it means I would have to trade libba and a rookie to do it.

Should I trade libba or is there someone else i should be looking at as a trade target

You could free up some cash for an upgrade via Hartley > Collins.

 

[GeoffMack]

reports Goldy may miss though

I read today North have said Goldy a certain starter this Friday.

 

[GeoffMack]

I'd have to say everything to be gained by trading him. He isn't a keeper so will be a trade at some point. Is most likely at his highest point in price. Without using him to bring in Mathison with a view to then upgrade Mathison around the round 15 bye means that I'd be stuck looking for rookies to bring in on other lines - which I'm not keen on based off 1 week.

Libba not a keeper?? Why u say that? He is a tackling beast and is returning from a year out. Has been playing some good football without staring. Handy M8 or M9. But it's ur team u do what u feel is right.

 

[tabs]

I'd have to say everything to be gained by trading him. He isn't a keeper so will be a trade at some point. Is most likely at his highest point in price. Without using him to bring in Mathison with a view to then upgrade Mathison around the round 15 bye means that I'd be stuck looking for rookies to bring in on other lines - which I'm not keen on based off 1 week.

So you are trading liba for mathieson for him to maybe make $100k in 4 games and then trade him out?

 

[smirski]

Libba not a keeper?? Why u say that? He is a tackling beast and is returning from a year out. Has been playing some good football without staring. Handy M8 or M9. But it's ur team u do what u feel is right.

cause libba is averaging less 20 per game points less than someone else

 

[cactus]

Need some help guys
This is what my team looks like at the moment

Currently have $31,900 in the bank

Def: Doherty, Simpson, Boyd, Smith, Birchall, KK (DBJ, Hartley)

Mid: Dangerfield, Parker, Ablett, Libba, S Mitchell, J Smith, Dunkley, McPherson (Davis, Gresham, Keays)

Ruck: Goldstien, Gawn (Chol)

Fwd: Dahlhaus, Martin, Zorko, Betts, Kerridge, Adams (Pertracca, Kommer)

I'm looking at getting in Rhys Mathieson and Robbie Gray in but it means I would have to trade libba and a rookie to do it.

Should I trade libba or is there someone else i should be looking at as a trade target

Basically none of your rookies are ready to cull right? Especially the midfield ones. And McPherson is out for ages. I'd probably recommend getting Mathieson for McPherson and then just Waiting for the rest of the rookies to make some proper money and cull them during the bye rounds.

 

[captainchardonnay]

reports Goldy may miss though

Liking these reports. My ruck/fwd planning will finally pay off.