Rucks 2016
- Thread starter Fbdonkey
- Start date
Nicholls/Currie aside do we really know what the impact of rotations and 4 bench players will be.
There's been talk that the second ruck would get phased out as they can't sub them for a runner anymore. Eade on the other hand seems to think it could be an opportunity to play 2 rucks.
There's a bit of unknown in regards to how it will pan out.
There's been talk that the second ruck would get phased out as they can't sub them for a runner anymore. Eade on the other hand seems to think it could be an opportunity to play 2 rucks.
There's a bit of unknown in regards to how it will pan out.
Bevo even suggested still using it kinda like a sub, leaving him there until 3rd-4th quarter so they have a fresh young guy with heaps of energy
Like when the sub came in, there will be a feeling out stage. Some clubs will take a look at a more traditional two-ruck setup, others will stick to a ruck and a fwd/ruck. I think the safest ploy will be to go with a Goldy/Sauce type setup - costly, but at least you know that they'll ruck a very high % of game time. Don't think I'll try and re-invent the wheel with my ruck combo or get too funky.
It willbe 50/50 imo but dont expect Tippett or Sinclair to ruck in the backline
(Sorry I'm late to the discussion, been offline for a bit..)
Personally I'm starting with Goldy and probably Stef Martin at this stage - yep, the 2 most expensive rucks but I think given their endurance etc they're likely to benefit from the drop in rotations, and I'm personally leaning towards Set & Forget this year. My thoughts FWIW:
Goldy - true he's expensive priced at his ~129SC average - but he came home like a TRAIN last year - averaged 143SC over his last 14 games - gives me some comfort he could at least go close to backing up in 2016. "Only" 27yo and still in his prime..
Stef - also on the expensive side (naturally) priced at his ~111SC average - but he averaged 118SC in the games he played without Leuenberger, and given Trent West is injured as usual (though haven't seen an estimated recovery timeframe anywhere), Stef might be solo for a large chunk of the season this year..
Mummy - I just can't go there myself - never played more than 19 games in a season, missed on average 5.6 games over the last 7 years. Huge potential, could average 120 potentially but just can't trust his body, or that he won't get reported the way he throws himself around..
Leuenberger - same thesis as Mummy (though Leuenberger is nowhere near as good) - missed 46 games in last 4 years. Glad to see his ownership is down to 16% (from 21% a couple weeks back). Best is only 102 average way back in 2011 - priced at 58 I can't see him averaging more than 90 - which was the 10th best ruck in 2016, or only the 23rd best FWD (for those considering him for the FWD line). Leuenberger probably won't ruck solo, while TBC (*shudders at memory of him stinking up my FWD line in the abysmal R/F experiment of 2015*) is out, McKernan (handy over his 9 games last year) is still there - and the fact the Bombers picked up Grimley (seems likely to play) and Jamar (probably insurance only) suggests they don't think Leuey can hold up and/or ruck by himself. Would much rather invest in a FWD rookie instead who should give a much better value return - a $124k FWD rookie (priced to average 23) only needs to average 55 to give the same return as Leuenberger averaging 90 at his price..
Lobbe - would be keen to understand what Lobbe's career best ~101SC average from 2014 translates to in the new rucks scoring system (??).. but personally just don't rate him - seemed to struggle big time to outmuscle Jarrad Redden in Port's side a few years back, and if Redden wasn't so injury prone Lobbe might not be Port's #1. Reasonably favourable draw to start the season though for those looking to use him as a stepping stone..
Jacobs & NicNat - the other 2 rucks i'd seriously consider.. Sauce: "reliable" from a year-on-year viewpoint and has averaged 115 before (2014) but can put in stinkers - evidenced by 6x scoring 73 or lower last year.. NicNat is cheap if he can average 114 again (2012)..
Sandilands - can't go there given he's 33yo now - bad memories of Dean Cox's fall away in his last year (2014), and saw speculation in the offseason this could be Sandi's last year..
Blicavs - love him as a player but difficult at that price given plethora of rucks now at the cattery - higher risk/high reward play IMO..
Personally I'm starting with Goldy and probably Stef Martin at this stage - yep, the 2 most expensive rucks but I think given their endurance etc they're likely to benefit from the drop in rotations, and I'm personally leaning towards Set & Forget this year. My thoughts FWIW:
Goldy - true he's expensive priced at his ~129SC average - but he came home like a TRAIN last year - averaged 143SC over his last 14 games - gives me some comfort he could at least go close to backing up in 2016. "Only" 27yo and still in his prime..
Stef - also on the expensive side (naturally) priced at his ~111SC average - but he averaged 118SC in the games he played without Leuenberger, and given Trent West is injured as usual (though haven't seen an estimated recovery timeframe anywhere), Stef might be solo for a large chunk of the season this year..
Mummy - I just can't go there myself - never played more than 19 games in a season, missed on average 5.6 games over the last 7 years. Huge potential, could average 120 potentially but just can't trust his body, or that he won't get reported the way he throws himself around..
Leuenberger - same thesis as Mummy (though Leuenberger is nowhere near as good) - missed 46 games in last 4 years. Glad to see his ownership is down to 16% (from 21% a couple weeks back). Best is only 102 average way back in 2011 - priced at 58 I can't see him averaging more than 90 - which was the 10th best ruck in 2016, or only the 23rd best FWD (for those considering him for the FWD line). Leuenberger probably won't ruck solo, while TBC (*shudders at memory of him stinking up my FWD line in the abysmal R/F experiment of 2015*) is out, McKernan (handy over his 9 games last year) is still there - and the fact the Bombers picked up Grimley (seems likely to play) and Jamar (probably insurance only) suggests they don't think Leuey can hold up and/or ruck by himself. Would much rather invest in a FWD rookie instead who should give a much better value return - a $124k FWD rookie (priced to average 23) only needs to average 55 to give the same return as Leuenberger averaging 90 at his price..
Lobbe - would be keen to understand what Lobbe's career best ~101SC average from 2014 translates to in the new rucks scoring system (??).. but personally just don't rate him - seemed to struggle big time to outmuscle Jarrad Redden in Port's side a few years back, and if Redden wasn't so injury prone Lobbe might not be Port's #1. Reasonably favourable draw to start the season though for those looking to use him as a stepping stone..
Jacobs & NicNat - the other 2 rucks i'd seriously consider.. Sauce: "reliable" from a year-on-year viewpoint and has averaged 115 before (2014) but can put in stinkers - evidenced by 6x scoring 73 or lower last year.. NicNat is cheap if he can average 114 again (2012)..
Sandilands - can't go there given he's 33yo now - bad memories of Dean Cox's fall away in his last year (2014), and saw speculation in the offseason this could be Sandi's last year..
Blicavs - love him as a player but difficult at that price given plethora of rucks now at the cattery - higher risk/high reward play IMO..
I think that's the appeal for Blitz. Having a pure midfielder at R2 is bloody tempting.
At this stage I'm going with Set and Forget too with Goldy and Stef. There's more than enough value on every other line to allow me to splash out on rucks. I'm not happy about seeing Leuys ownership go down. Hopefully he plays some NAB games and sucks everyone in. Makes it better for us when he snaps in half come round 5 and everyone needs to burn a trade and cash to replace him.
At this stage I'm going with Set and Forget too with Goldy and Stef. There's more than enough value on every other line to allow me to splash out on rucks. I'm not happy about seeing Leuys ownership go down. Hopefully he plays some NAB games and sucks everyone in. Makes it better for us when he snaps in half come round 5 and everyone needs to burn a trade and cash to replace him.
I am also going with the Goldy/Martin combo, but if I need to find an extra 30K I would have no hesitation in trading Martin to Blics.
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Goldy is so expensive and I'm worried he'll go back to his 110 average of previous years, of which there's a few capable of the 110 who are a lot cheaper.
Stef is awesome, but more of a fantasy player. Again you'd expect 110 in SC.
Blics is interesting, but won't play ruck and not sure he'll get much time in the midfield if it's full strength. Might be out on the flanks and maybe not as lucrative.
I've gone for NicNat. Despite his injuries he doesn't miss too many games. Best preseason and shown the ability to average 115. With Sinclair gone I think he's got little competition so potentially could go higher. Hoping he's also got more aerobic capacity with a couple of preseasons under his belt and can mark the ball around the ground - the one thing he doesn't do well.
The other one is Nicholls. Durability concerns, but underpriced and is great once the ball hits the ground and moves around the ground well - marks and tackles well. Looks really really fit and happy to take a punt on him. If he gets injured early I might be stuck for trade options, but you have to take a risk somewhere. No doubt can go 100+ and with a good run can probably go 110, although unlikely to do that this season.
Stef is awesome, but more of a fantasy player. Again you'd expect 110 in SC.
Blics is interesting, but won't play ruck and not sure he'll get much time in the midfield if it's full strength. Might be out on the flanks and maybe not as lucrative.
I've gone for NicNat. Despite his injuries he doesn't miss too many games. Best preseason and shown the ability to average 115. With Sinclair gone I think he's got little competition so potentially could go higher. Hoping he's also got more aerobic capacity with a couple of preseasons under his belt and can mark the ball around the ground - the one thing he doesn't do well.
The other one is Nicholls. Durability concerns, but underpriced and is great once the ball hits the ground and moves around the ground well - marks and tackles well. Looks really really fit and happy to take a punt on him. If he gets injured early I might be stuck for trade options, but you have to take a risk somewhere. No doubt can go 100+ and with a good run can probably go 110, although unlikely to do that this season.
The difference for me is that 110-115 is probably at the low end of realistic expectations for Goldy. 110-115 is probably to the top end of expectations for the best of the rest.
Thank god I'm not the only one who doesn't rate him
Nic Nat averaged 115 after round 7, so good signs there
The more I fiddle with different combinations n the more I convince myself to stick with total guns n rookies strategy this year (I do that every year, but end up not being able to resist some mid prices), I think I can run with two top set n forget Rucks (currently Goldy n Stef). It all comes down to how many rookies get named for round one. I can't see that I'd go with any Mid Priced Rucks, just too risky.
I think a lot of us are still coping with the disaster last years Bellchambers experiment.