Lowrider
Triple Premiership Coach
Patron '16
Patron '17
Patron '18
Patron '19
Patron '20
Patron '21
Veterans
- May 7, 2015
- 3,202
- 3,073
- 113
Here's my take on Stef. Bear in mind I've never been a fan of picking him in SC... he's more of an AF/DT scorer. I argued preseason that he couldn't score any better than he has, at best he could maintain his average but wasn't going to go any higher. Unfortunately for those that backed him in he's gone down.Stef Martin is killing me. Will be under 400K next week. WTF do I do. Was planning on Hewett > Mathieson and Kerridge > Hanners. Need a few nights sleep to think about it.
- He is seen as a uber-premium ruck. My concern with this is he has only shown 18 months of uber scoring which started when he was 28yo. Before that he was a spud. At the Demons he couldn't get a game in the ruck and whenever he did he played forward and couldn't get near it. It was only at the Lions when he was essentially the last option after Leuy and West got injured that he got a game and exploded with form. History says guys like this who explode so late in their career or completely out of the blue rarely maintain it for multiple seasons.
- He is not great in the ruck contests. If West is fit and performing well in the ruck contests (like he is currently) I can see him continuing to get games. Problem is Martin won't score well if he isn't the sole ruck.
- The May hit probably made things worse, but he wasn't flying up until that point in the year either. He didn't have an AF/DT ton up to that point (probably the best guide to his form) and was averaging about 104 in SC. His kick/handball ratio has plummeted as well which will affect his scoring, that is possibly as a consequence of him getting less marks around the ground which is another concern.
- He's nearly 30yo, as I've said before sometimes these big blokes hit the wall at this age (e.g. Maric, Minson) so I can't be confident he will bounce back from here.
Ultimately I think you have no option but to hold him and hope he comes good or West gets injured. If you have no other concerns and the cash to spend then a trade is an option, but only if you're going to go up to one of the top 3 which will cost you ~$150k. If you're going to make that call you have to do it now because he'll be down around $375k next week, if you hold him beyond this week you've committed for the season in my book.