ROUND 10 TRADES

[doddy2731]

I'm tempted to do the same with Marchbank.

Yeah i like it, I'm also thinking along the same line but willnuse Marc to Hibberd.
My second at t hi is stage is looking like Sandi to either Ryder or maybe even Kruzer.

 

[cactus]

Yeah i like it, I'm also thinking along the same line but willnuse Marc to Hibberd.
My second at t hi is stage is looking like Sandi to either Ryder or maybe even Kruzer.

What's your thinking on Sandi to Ryder if I may ask. I've been tossing up whether to go March to Hibberd or Butler to Ryder ...

I've got Sandi too but it seems a luxury to trade him out.

 

[smirski]

I'm looking closely at Ablett and Wingard this week. Ablett went 143, 121, 127, 159. After his bye last year, and was still carrying his shoulder pretty badly. With Wingard if I was guaranteed he was going to play pure mid for the remainder of the season I would lock him in.

 

[Sizza]

@Sizza Do you realise Hibberd also has the rd 11 bye?

Yeah all good on that Dino. I can afford to get one in but can't probably get two extra rd 11 players in.

 

[Wattsgoinon]

Balic to Greenwood
Marchbank to Adams
Been killing me not having him.

Byes as it stands are 18,21,20

 

[Tevez17]

I'm looking closely at Ablett and Wingard this week. Ablett went 143, 121, 127, 159. After his bye last year, and was still carrying his shoulder pretty badly. With Wingard if I was guaranteed he was going to play pure mid for the remainder of the season I would lock him in.

You'd think Wingard isn't going to play any extra Mid time than he is currently & he's only going 90 now,

 

[Fitzroy Guerrilla]

Is anyone tempted by any of the rookies on the bubble?

Lloyd and McInness. Question over McInness is job security. If he can hold his spot around the byes he looks very useful as a D/F with a R12 bye who has scored reasonably. His price being close to $150k makes him risky, given that Petrie and Lycett could be back in soon.

Lloyd might have a better chance of keeping his spot. He's more difficult for me to trade in though, as my mid rookies seem to either still be useful to keep or haven't yet made enough cash to be a worthwhile trade.

 

[captainchardonnay]

I could actually go Otten -> Hibberd with my spare cash..... Thoughts?

Holding Otten until after Rd 11.

 

[captainchardonnay]

Lloyd and McInness. Question over McInness is job security. If he can hold his spot around the byes he looks very useful as a D/F with a R12 bye who has scored reasonably. His price being close to $150k makes him risky, given that Petrie and Lycett could be back in soon.

Lloyd might have a better chance of keeping his spot. He's more difficult for me to trade in though, as my mid rookies seem to either still be useful to keep or haven't yet made enough cash to be a worthwhile trade.

Think I'll be using McInnes in fwd line. Scharenberg isn't far away, McNiece might still come back and surely Luke Ryan & Kieran Collins are due for a run.

 

[Lowrider]

Holding Otten until after Rd 11.

I actually have 22 playing for round 11, including 7 defenders. So actually Marchbank helps me through the byes more than Otten does.

 

[captainchardonnay]

I actually have 22 playing for round 11, including 7 defenders. So actually Marchbank helps me through the byes more than Otten does.

Sweet.

 

[k-red17]

Think I'll be using McInnes in fwd line. Scharenberg isn't far away, McNiece might still come back and surely Luke Ryan & Kieran Collins are due for a run.

Sharenberg will almost certainly come in this week. Had 41 touches on the weekend in the magoos and with Aish going down makes sense to replace him with Shazza.

 

[Tevez17]

6K short of Marchbank & Hampton to May & Hibbard.

 

[Sizza]

6K short of Marchbank & Hampton to May & Hibbard.

I wouldn't be too disappointed about not having May, not going to be in top 6-10 defenders come seasons end. I would be aiming much higher to the like of Adams, Laird, Roberton if you don't already have them.

 

[Tevez17]

I wouldn't be too disappointed about not having May, not going to be in top 6-10 defenders come seasons end. I would be aiming much higher to the like of Adams, Laird, Roberton if you don't already have them.

To be honest I think he's just as likely to be top 10 as a very popular trade in target this week in Michael Hurley, extremely similar players,
also the "not going to be in top 6-10 defenders come seasons end" is a pretty simplistic thing to say, I mean there's a 100K difference between May & Roberton, how many points elsewhere does that 100K get me, how does having May play through the byes affect me where as Robertson misses a game.

 

[Sizza]

To be honest I think he's just as likely to be top 10 as a very popular trade in target this week in Michael Hurley, extremely similar players,
also the "not going to be in top 6-10 defenders come seasons end" is a pretty simplistic thing to say, I mean there's a 100K difference between May & Roberton, how many points elsewhere does that 100K get me, how does having May play through the byes affect me where as Robertson misses a game.

You may think it's simplistic, but surely that's the point that we are all trying to get to isn't it?

I agree that Hurley and May are similar, however Hurley does have a 5 round average of 113, not sure May will ever get to that point consistently.

Your point about the byes is a valid one and needs to be factored in, does depend on how your bye structures are and probably only a big factor if a doughnut is likely across the bye period.
A lot of could potentially come down to where else you can spend the extra 100k and does it get your more value?

Have you got any other options that you are considering?

 

[Lowrider]

Just for interest of those considering a Sun or Power player this week. These guys are the only ones currently averaging over 90 you could consider as a keeper (sorry for the cruddy formatting):

Player Position Team Price Games Avg Breakeven Likelihood %
B. Ebert MID Power $536,700 8 109.9 115 33%
G. Ablett MID Suns $611,800 8 107.8 197 1%
O. Wines MID Power $474,700 8 102.2 123 24%
J. Harbrow DEF Suns $472,500 6 98.3 73 96%
P. Ryder FOR, RUC Power $493,300 7 97.3 36 100%
C. Dixon FOR Power $507,200 8 97 73 79%
J. Witts RUC Suns $432,100 8 93.8 42 100%
A. Hall MID Suns $479,300 8 93.5 53 95%
S. May DEF Suns $455,700 6 92 65 92%
T. Lynch FOR Suns $491,300 8 90.5 154 5%
C. Wingard FOR Power $479,000 8 90 108 19%

There's not much interesting here to be perfectly honest. Most have no history of sustaining their current average (Ebert, Wines, Harbrow, Dixon, etc). Others have high BE's (Gaz, Lynch). Others already widely owned (Ryder). Hall would be interesting if he wasn't MID only - reckon he could easily go 100+ but that's probably not enough for an M8 and you'd have to back him for almost a 110 average from here.

Slim pickings.....

 

[Tevez17]

You may think it's simplistic, but surely that's the point that we are all trying to get to isn't it?

I agree that Hurley and May are similar, however Hurley does have a 5 round average of 113, not sure May will ever get to that point consistently.

Your point about the byes is a valid one and needs to be factored in, does depend on how your bye structures are and probably only a big factor if a doughnut is likely across the bye period.
A lot of could potentially come down to where else you can spend the extra 100k and does it get your more value?

Have you got any other options that you are considering?

I think the seasonal average is of course very valid simplistic may have been the wrong word to use but I think it's very much more valid when talking starting team, once you are into the season it's all about what they'll score from point they join your team & at what price you bring them in at, like for example Shaw last season at R10 had an average 116.4 but from that point on averaged 97.2.

Anyway I'm set on bringing in a Defender from Port or GC.

 

[Sizza]

I think the seasonal average is of course very valid simplistic may have been the wrong word to use but I think it's very much more valid when talking starting team, once you are into the season it's all about what they'll score from point they join your team & at what price you bring them in at, like for example Shaw last season at R10 had an average 116.4 but from that point on averaged 97.2.

Anyway I'm set on bringing in a Defender from Port or GC.

Yeah totally understand. Current form certainly helps though when I'm selecting players, as long as I'm not overpaying.

With all this said, go for it mate. I hope for your sake it comes off, it will be an inspired choice if he averages 95+ from here.

 

[Haychh]

Another way of looking at it both GC and Port don't have many hard games through the finals, they play each other rd 23 GC's Round 20-22 is Fre (A), BL (A) and Ess (H). Ports 20-22 is Ade, Coll(H) and WB (A)