2017 Midfield Midpricers

[cactus]

So far the only midpricers to get near my team have been Swallow and Sandi and I've since flicked Sandi given his calf ... but two intraclub matches into the season and there are reports of Jaeger kicking three goals from the midfield and all of a sudden I feel that strange midpricery feeling coming over me again.

Just got to keep repeating "Brad Crouch, Brad Crouch" over and over to myself until it passes ...

 

[cactus]

Only about a week ago I'm sure I was reading somewhere that Jaeger wouldn't be ready to go before R4 of the season proper ... well he doesn't look like he's struggling all that much to me:

http://m.hawthornfc.com.au/video/2017-02-09/jaeger-omeara-iso-vision-intra-club

 

[smirski]

Is 90-100 avg good enough to pick him though?

 

[cactus]

Is 90-100 avg good enough to pick him though?

At 318K? Yeah I'd think so as long as he doesn't get injured. Swallow is only slightly cheaper than that and that is about what I'm hoping for from him.

If he averages 90-100 it probably just takes one good week to push him over the 500K price point. That is about 200K profit and you be well satisfied if a rookie made you that. Yes you have to invest more at the start but you get the benefit of a guy averaging 90 - 100 on your field for the first 6 - 8 weeks instead of a rookie who might average 50 - 70.

If you were pretty confident he wasn't going to get injured or managed you'd take it. You'd want to be pretty confident though ...

 

[Tevez17]

I wary of having too many blokes at 300-350K as stepping stones even if they are as proven as O'Meara and Swallow are, scoring isn't in question though both are guns and will averaging atleast 90 IF they don't get injured.

Roughead is a similar worry but there's a far higher chance of him being a cheaper in the long run,

 

[cactus]

I wary of having too many blokes at 300-350K as stepping stones even if they are as proven as O'Meara and Swallow are, scoring isn't in question though both are guns and will averaging atleast 90 IF they don't get injured.

Roughead is a similar worry but there's a far higher chance of him being a cheaper in the long run,

Spot on. Two across all lines would be an absolute maximum for stepping stone types I'd think.

 

[doddy2731]

Spot on. Two across all lines would be an absolute maximum for stepping stone types I'd think.

2! I think one is enough, 2 is playing with fire.

 

[tiltraise]

I wary of having too many blokes at 300-350K as stepping stones even if they are as proven as O'Meara and Swallow are, scoring isn't in question though both are guns and will averaging atleast 90 IF they don't get injured.

Spoilt for choice in regards MID mid pricers :S

S.Sellwood is another option at around the same price as D.Swallow. Perhaps doesnt have the ceiling of the other guys however averaged 104 B2B in '12-13 and has had a great p/s by all accounts.

Is it just me or does this time of the season lead itself to a planned GNR turning into MPM?

 

[k-red17]

Fyfe (Prem)
Gaz (Prem)
Cripps Back Injury (Prem)

D Beams (Middy)
O'Meara (Middy)
Marc Murphy (Middy)
D Swallow (Middy)
Scott Selwood (Middy)

Going to be a heart pulsing year if you take over 2 of these boys in your squad me thinks.

Personally I'm taking Fyfe (If he goes down can just on trade to just about anyone anyway) and Swallow at this stage. Swallow is also worth the risk for mine, 280k is just tooooo cheap to pass up. Potentially a 100ave player by round the byes to on-trade as a super nice profit.

 

[jester5au]

like the selwood selection. Hopefully over his injuries full pre season can avg close to 100.

Another who I think overs are overlooking is jobe. Priced at 80.

Either way these midpricers should only be used as stepping stones unless they can prove to be keepers.

 

[Seppo]

I am also pretty keen on using Scooter as a stepping stone provided he does complete the whole preseason without problems. Geelong's pre-bye draw looks very good to me (as well as the handy round 12 bye). On the flip side, that great schedule and bye round has me considering starting Jelwood as well as Danger...so I don't know if I can put 3 Geelong MIDs into my side.

If O'Meara gets up for round 1, I really love Hawthorn's pre-bye draw as well.

As far as Swallow is concerned, I see Gold Coast's first-half draw as one of the toughest and I'm not too happy with the round 9 bye at this point.

If you do pick one and the bottom drops out in the first 2 weeks, it wouldn't be the end of your season since a corrective trade to one of the others would be fairly easy.

 

[Prospector]

Is it just me or does this time of the season lead itself to a planned GNR turning into MPM?

It's not happening to anyone else's side, is it?

 

[Tevez17]

Doing some number crunching only been a handful of guys to average 90+ from 300K-400K price range since 2011, and they weren't particularly relevant, Shiels, Greenwood, Petrie.

Keep in mind when looking at Swallow (who is currently in my team) & O'Meara that there is, in my case at least, a bit of cognitive bias in that both are very good players, flashy & classy but neither has averaged above premo numbers, best being 103 from Swallow and to make you 200K Swallow has to ave 90+pts O'Meara 95+.

I have little doubt that these 2 are special cases, Bennell & Roughy as well, much like Wells was last season but it's not just injuries to worry about.

 

[doddy2731]

Doing some number crunching only been a handful of guys to average 90+ from 300K-400K price range since 2011, and they weren't particularly relevant, Shiels, Greenwood, Petrie.

Keep in mind when looking at Swallow (who is currently in my team) & O'Meara that there is, in my case at least, a bit of cognitive bias in that both are very good players, flashy & classy but neither has averaged above premo numbers, best being 103 from Swallow and to make you 200K Swallow has to ave 90+pts O'Meara 95+.

I have little doubt that these 2 are special cases, Bennell & Roughy as well, much like Wells was last season but it's not just injuries to worry about.

It depends on the way you look at a couple of these guys, totally agree with you on the players mentioned, you have to look at these guys as underpriced premiums with proven history.
Then there are mid pricers these are the players that will stay at the same price all year and give you nothing.

 

[cactus]

Also if used as a stepping stone their yearly average won't necessarily reflect the maximum price they reach. Might only average 90 if you look at the whole year but if they string a couple of good games together could be priced at over 100 the week you trade them out. Or not.

 

[smirski]

Heppell vs Watson.
Watson at 32 years of age, comming off averages of 120 and 110 before shit hit the fan.
Heppell with averages of 105 in his last 2 seasons.
I think there is no love for watson. Watson was an established supercoach premium before the drug scandal. Heppell was still floating around that will he improve point, so shouldn't watson be less of a risk to start in your side?
Don't get me wrong, Heppell is a gun. I just feel like i can guarantee watson is going to improve on a 105 avg, whereas Heppell could just remain around that 105 ppg.

 

[Seppo]

Heppell vs Watson.
Watson at 32 years of age, comming off averages of 120 and 110 before shit hit the fan.
Heppell with averages of 105 in his last 2 seasons.
I think there is no love for watson. Watson was an established supercoach premium before the drug scandal. Heppell was still floating around that will he improve point, so shouldn't watson be less of a risk to start in your side?
Don't get me wrong, Heppell is a gun. I just feel like i can guarantee watson is going to improve on a 105 avg, whereas Heppell could just remain around that 105 ppg.

I think Watson may play up forward way too much this year to be able to hit 105...and you'd want him to be a keeper at his price so I couldn't pick him. Add to that his age and injury history I think he's a big risk.

I'm not 100% sold on Heppell being a keeper, but I'd clearly pick him given the choice of either him or Jobe. I'm not sold on the year off helping him, but it's not too much of a detractor for me. Plus, I think he'll need to increase the amount of his possessions that are contested for him to go 110+ and be the keeper you need him to be. From 2014 to 2015 he did increase both his ratio of contested/uncontested and his disposal efficiency (73.4% contested at 66.8% efficiency in 2014 up to 78.4% contested at 70.7% efficiency in 2015), so I'm not going to knock the pick if you think he can continue that upward trend. Of note, the reason he scored slightly better in 2014 is because his disposals and marks dropped off. If he can pick those up again he's probably a monty to go 110. Like I said, I'm not completely sold on him and he's not in my team at the moment, but he's definitely under strong consideration.

 

[doddy2731]

Well after all the early talk of O'meara not playing until R4 or so, what do we make of his first half.

 

[Benj]

Really liked Jobe's game on Thursday. Not really been interested til now but on the watchlist for sure now. The more I think about it, I'm not sure all the talk of him playing more time fwd rings true. He's never been a strong set shot and he's slow as buggery, both attributes needed for fwd 50 play. And looking at his contested work the other night, he's still an absolute gun around the packs. Why the hell would you play him anywhere else?! And if he plays on the ball, he scores. He's so clean with the pill and makes such great decisions. On the radar for mine.

 

[Tevez17]

Really liked Jobe's game on Thursday. Not really been interested til now but on the watchlist for sure now. The more I think about it, I'm not sure all the talk of him playing more time fwd rings true. He's never been a strong set shot and he's slow as buggery, both attributes needed for fwd 50 play. And looking at his contested work the other night, he's still an absolute gun around the packs. Why the hell would you play him anywhere else?! And if he plays on the ball, he scores. He's so clean with the pill and makes such great decisions. On the radar for mine.

My problem with Jobe is not really to do with him it's the other options, if you want to have a crack at 400Kish midfielder there's Beams & Murphy as well and less you've got O'Meara & Swallow too assuming they all line up round one I think Watson's is bottom of that list.