The year of the midpricer

[Danielgalea]

Hi everyone,

This is my first post. I'm a long time supercoach player and have been occasionally writing articles throughout pre season. Last season was the change in ruck scoring that affected supercoach, this year it will be the removal of the substitute. I wanted to get your thoughts on something that has been on my mind for a while about a different method of tackling this season. Every year we consider multiple mid pricers, but picking the right one has been like finding a needle in a haystack. This year I think it is a bit different given the sub rule has now been removed. There are players that are significantly underpriced and will make you 150-200k, along with recording some big scores along the way. There are two players that have been locked in my team for quite some time, and if the sub rule was still in our game, I simply wouldn't go near them. But its gone. Now those players that were heavily affected by the vest in 2015, will have an opportunity to break out. Here are my POD's:

Billy Hartung MID:
Played 18 games, averaged 59, priced at $319k. Sounds less than impressive right?
10 of those 18 games were sub affected. If we take out the 10 sub affected games, Hartung averaged 93. A player who averaged 93 is priced at $505k. Today on the AFL facebook page, Clarko answered a question regarding Hartung and the removal of the substitute rule. He said it favours players like Hartung and he is looking forward to seeing Hartung become a regular this season in the Hawthorn midfield. Hartung's scores in the 8 full games were 121, 118, 91, 90, 83, 82, 76, 75. With no substitute vest, should we lock and load?

Mark Hutchings FWD/MID:
Played 13 games, averaged 71, priced at $385.
4 of those games were sub affected. If we take out the 4 sub affected games, Hutchings averaged 89. A player who averaged 89 is priced at $482k. Hutchings has been dominating pre season and consolidated his spot late in the season which is why he only played 13 games. Hutching's scores in the 9 full games were 121, 110, 110, 106, 96, 89, 84, 60, 58. As a forward I think he has terrific value.

http://www.westcoasteagles.com.au/news/2016-01-27/training-ramps-up

What are your thoughts?

 

[Tevez17]

Hadn't thought of either tbh I guess because there is just so many mid-price options but both make for good reading, Hutchings being a mature-age player 4th year in the system worries me a little but other than that he does look like one to watch very closely through the NAB, love it when a player who's basically a FT mid gets the FWD.

 

[Steve]

Glad you mentioned Hutchings. Glad you did the sums too. I have him on a similar footing to Yeo but at much better value. Being fwd/mid means I've gotta few guys ahead of him at this stage. Definitely watching closely through the preseason.

 

[doddy2731]

Hartung is my other midpricer with Libba in the middle. He is great value and now is his time. He is a little gem that is going under the radar just nicely.

 

[Tevez17]

Danielgalea

Are you looking at these lads just for cash gen or for potentially being keepers?

 

[Danielgalea]

Are you looking at these lads just for cash gen or for potentially being keepers?

It's too early to tell. At this stage, I am looking at Hartung being a cash cow given his lower price and he has more cash to generate, however, if I'm right about him I don't think there would be a need to trade him. My view is if he can average 90 (which he did), then it will essentially allow me to upgrade my 2 rookies in defence and forward line without having a need to upgrade Hartung. Then sideways trade down the track if a premium has a bad patch of form. Or an upgrade may only cost 50-100k instead of 300k.

I think Hutchings is a genuine chance to be a keeper. I try and determine the top players in every position. There were only 6 forwards who averaged above 97 last season. Although I don't think Hutchings will necessarily be a top 6 forward, I do think he is capable of averaging above 90 (which he also did), which would result in Hutchings being a top 20 forward at around 500k.

The sub rule has resulted in their being genuine underpriced value picks. You just need to identify the right ones. Ben Kennedy, Nakia Cockatoo etc. All undervalued and will all generate the same, if not more than a rookie!

 

[tabs]

there are quite a few to consider.

BCrouch, Liba, JOM, Anderson Wells

but the 2 i'm looking at are Jake Lloyd and Lauchie Hunter

 

[Dino]

Hutchings was impressive last year as his numbers indicate. He has been in and out of my side numerous times so far. Will be keeping a close eye on him over the next couple of weeks.

I knew Hartung has a few good games last year but didn't realise he posted such good SC numbers considering his TOG.

Thank god the sub rule is gone.

 

[Prospector]

When I look at the scores that are not sub-affected, I see a strong fall off as the season progressed. I fear second year blues for these two ... ,

 

[doddy2731]

When I look at the scores that are not sub-affected, I see a strong fall off as the season progressed. I fear second year blues for these two ... ,

Maybe so but if he can average 90-95 up to the byes he will have done what I needed him to do.

 

[Fbdonkey]

When I look at the scores that are not sub-affected, I see a strong fall off as the season progressed. I fear second year blues for these two ... ,

I thought the same thing at first mate but then realised the scores are listed from highest to lowest not chronologically

 

[Prospector]

I thought the same thing at first mate but then realised the scores are listed from highest to lowest not chronologically

Aha! The old highest to lowest trick, eh? Second time I fell for it this month!

 

[doddy2731]

Keep him under your hats boys.

 

[alrighty then]

Just a little confused. I looked on fanfooty and from what i could calculate, Hartung's non sub affected games last year resulted in an average around 80. The 8 games he wasn't sub he scored the following:

76,56,83,121,90,91,36,118,82,54

Can anyone else confirm i'm not missing something?

Hutchings I calculated to be correct

EDIT: I think you have mixed up some of the games in which he was sub and which he wasn't

 

[Tevez17]

Just a little confused. I looked on fanfooty and from what i could calculate, Hartung's non sub affected games last year resulted in an average around 80. The 8 games he wasn't sub he scored the following:

76,56,83,121,90,91,36,118,82,54

Can anyone else confirm i'm not missing something?

Hutchings I calculated to be correct

EDIT: I think you have mixed up some of the games in which he was sub and which he wasn't

Were their games where he was subbed out? might have been counting them.

 

[alrighty then]

Were their games where he was subbed out? might have been counting them.

Nah im pretty sure he was subbed out 8 games, rather than the 10 that Danielgalea mentioned.

 

[tabs]

Just a little confused. I looked on fanfooty and from what i could calculate, Hartung's non sub affected games last year resulted in an average around 80. The 8 games he wasn't sub he scored the following:

76,56,83,121,90,91,36,118,82,54

Can anyone else confirm i'm not missing something?

Hutchings I calculated to be correct

EDIT: I think you have mixed up some of the games in which he was sub and which he wasn't

You have quoted 10 scores and said 8 matches.

807 points in 10 games 80.7 ave

 

[alrighty then]

You have quoted 10 scores and said 8 matches.

807 points in 10 games 80.7 ave

Yeh sorry that was a typo. 10 non sub-affected games. Your average is the same that I calculated (Y)

 

[tabs]

So his price is averaged out at an average of 60. Definitely worth a look

 

[Steve]

The thing with Hartung is his price. In the same range (excluding Libba) you have Crouch, JOM, and Polec. Assuming you go with 3 elites, Rocky and Libba, I'm not sure you can have more than one of those 300k guys on the park as that takes you down to M7 and you end up completely sacrificing at least one other position because of the amount you spend on the mids. How many of them are keepers? Probably none. They might make you 150k but what else are they costing you in regards to spread of cash across the park?