Analysis of the 2016 fixture, coming in 3 parts...
Strength of Schedule (SoS) can be a vital tool to help inform our SC selections. I've used this formula for a couple of years and have found it really helpful for selecting my starting team and trading throughout the season.
A couple of important points about this particular SoS;
- home and away records are taken into account (i.e. playing Fremantle at home is judged at 0.73 'difficulty' (1.0 being the highest 'difficulty')), but are only a 0.29 away 'difficulty' (-1.00 the lowest possible difficulty), thus differentiating the difficulty of playing an opponent home vs. away). For comparisons sake, at the other end of the ladder, Brisbane is a -0.33 at home and -0.58 away.
- a combined record of the previous three years are also accounted for, on a sliding scale of 3x (season 2015), 2x (2014) and x (2013).
- the 'lowest' score = the easiest draw
There are plenty of SoS models about and all are useful to varying extents. I hope the SCC community can add this to any other tools they use to analyze the fixture.
From rounds 1-11...
Port Adelaide -1.52 (easiest draw)
North Melbourne -1.24
Geelong -1.22
Collingwood -1.09
Western Bulldogs -0.95
Melbourne -0.68
Fremantle -0.5
Sydney -0.05
St.Kilda 0.38
GWS 0.43
=Gold Coast 0.45
=Hawthorn 0.45
Essendon 0.6
=Brisbane 0.82
=Richmond 0.82
Carlton 1.05
Adelaide 1.1
West Coast 1.21 (hardest draw)
Strength of Schedule (SoS) can be a vital tool to help inform our SC selections. I've used this formula for a couple of years and have found it really helpful for selecting my starting team and trading throughout the season.
A couple of important points about this particular SoS;
- home and away records are taken into account (i.e. playing Fremantle at home is judged at 0.73 'difficulty' (1.0 being the highest 'difficulty')), but are only a 0.29 away 'difficulty' (-1.00 the lowest possible difficulty), thus differentiating the difficulty of playing an opponent home vs. away). For comparisons sake, at the other end of the ladder, Brisbane is a -0.33 at home and -0.58 away.
- a combined record of the previous three years are also accounted for, on a sliding scale of 3x (season 2015), 2x (2014) and x (2013).
- the 'lowest' score = the easiest draw
There are plenty of SoS models about and all are useful to varying extents. I hope the SCC community can add this to any other tools they use to analyze the fixture.
From rounds 1-11...
Port Adelaide -1.52 (easiest draw)
North Melbourne -1.24
Geelong -1.22
Collingwood -1.09
Western Bulldogs -0.95
Melbourne -0.68
Fremantle -0.5
Sydney -0.05
St.Kilda 0.38
GWS 0.43
=Gold Coast 0.45
=Hawthorn 0.45
Essendon 0.6
=Brisbane 0.82
=Richmond 0.82
Carlton 1.05
Adelaide 1.1
West Coast 1.21 (hardest draw)
