As far as I know the total value of all players remains constant through the season.
So, as you suggest, the more rookies that start and increase in price the more likely it is that premiums reduce in price. This is evident in their prices as the season progresses.
E.G. Grundy: 2018 - averaged 130.5; 2019 - averaged 130.0. 2019 starting price - $708,200; finishing price - $616,200.
This is probably a more than usually important factor this year - if you think that the spike in premium scoring from last year won't be repeated.
Thanks, really appreciate the response and gave me the chance to go all conspiracy theorist...
TLDR at the bottom fyi all
Based on this and my other theories I think Gawn will really struggle to average more than 125 this year, Honestly I think he may average 120, (2019 and 2018 he averaged 128 and feel rule changes will reduce impact ruckman can have (less ruck contests and less bombing it to ruckmen in decent position etc), combined with more game time will result in primary ruckman spending less % of time on the field, or at least being in the play. Surely with these we see a significant drop to the number 1 rucks?
I'm happy to not start Gawn and aim to pick him up from round 6 onwards, perhaps $100k+ cheaper, and hope where I spend the extra cash I save doesn't depreciate as much lol, even if I keep $300k in the bank to make the Gawn upgrade easier if I want to do around rd 5-8 (when the rookie ruckman may not be getting a game and Gawn's price should have 'normalised', or another ruck option appears.
If you think Gawn will average 130+, it's obviously not a bad plan to take the say $50-75k hit, knowing you effectively recoup this as he is the obvious C/VC each week. Even if he does score like this, I'm not exactly being burned unless he scores 140+ ave, but even then his price could still drop slightly, at this starting price I hope for a average/bad game and have 2 weeks to prep to swoop. If I reallocate the money elsewhere I can still gain their, it's just the effort required to get him in.
I'd rather start with an extra premo and some of the $200-280k options who have greater job security and likely to make nearly as much cash (if not as much cash) as rookies anyway. The extra trade that may be required to get Gawn in I think is mitigated by starting with an extra premo anyway.
Conveniently, we can see from Gawn's 2019 season, that for arguments sake, he started off priced at 128 ave, got his average to 126 by round 20 (19/22 games) his last 3 scores are irrelevant for my point. 126 ave at 19 games is close to the 128 starting priced at and his price only moved by +$8.8k that week, so stable. He was down $66.5k from his starting price at this point. So what happens if he is averaging a little under this, this season, but instead of starting at 128 ave, he starts from 140?
2019, Having started at a 128 ave,
At Rd 6 Gawn ave 119 (down $47k) (all from start price)
At Rd 9 Gawn ave 121 (down $45k)
Went on to ave 151 for the next 5 games (includes a bye) before the injury in Rd 15
At R 14 Gawn ave 131 (up $33k, now $726k, B/E was ~140 here, so not much room to go up)
At R 15 Gawn is injured and scores 46
At R 19 Gawn ave 125 (down $79k)
At R 20 Gawn ave 126 (yet still down $67k despite averaging 133 in the prior 3 games).
So, starting at 140 ave, pick your own average and you can see what is gonna happen...
An average of 120 and he may drop below $600k. a $150k price drop
An average of 125 and probably drops below $650k, $100k drop
1 bad game (even an 80-100 because he gets rested in the 4th qtr for example which could easily happen, and those without him, and have a plan to get him, will be very happy.
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TLDR
So my point is, If ruckman scoring is reduced due to more free flowing game/less stoppages, on top of Gawns ridiculous scoring from last year being the basis for his start price this year, combined with rookies increases dragging down those at the top as rounds progress, plus the %game time being reduced that the stars play due to 20 min qtrs (needing to rest a higher % of game time), I think he could drop ~$100k by round 6, if he averaged 120 in the first 6 rounds which I am willing to gamble on it could be closer to $150k (to me this is a great gamble, even if wrong I'm not exactly going to get burned unless he averages 140+, which IMO is near 0% chance of happening).
Whilst I think this may also happen to some mids, I don't think the impact will be as large, eg Neale and others can get plenty of ball in general play, he doesn't rely on stoppages like ruckmen do. In saying that, Neale is still very much at a price point that I'm happy to wait/hope for an average couple of games or a bad one before planning to pounce (same with the others who averaged 121+ last year). I realise a few people think like this every year, but not often we have people starting at a price average of 140, 134 and 5 at 122/121 inflated by very unique circumstances, although mostly mids I would expect all to drop just due to longer quarters now, but not as much.
Loading up on these players is every chance of costing you too much IMO, but beginning to think if Grundy gets back to 2019 form, my gut says the rule changes wont impact him as much as Gawn (could be wrong but I think Grundy is a little better getting around the ground and likely to find space during play to lead up and take a mark), and he is coming off a significantly lower cost base (121 ave). Perhaps he isn't such bad value, but I'm happy to wait to see what happens at this stage. If Ruck rookie situation isn't great, I'd try to fit Grundy perhaps, if I was confident of getting 6 games out of 2 rookies (and at this stage Stef Martin), I want to see how it plays out.
