SC 2021 Pre Season Chat

[Orallus_Maximus]

Hi all.

Hope everyone is doing ok.

I am looking forward to a more normal footy/SC season this year. 2020 was disappointing but I'm keen to have a better year in 2021.

Thought I'd create this thread to kick things off.

I haven't really done my team yet but have started to check out a few bits. Some players that I am looking at:
- Laird - DEF/MID swing - reliable, good scorer and now with added flexibility
- Preuss in R2 - surely will get heaps of time if fit (look to Gawn or Grundy for R1 - leaning towards Gawn at the moment)
- Marshall F/R FWD with Treacy R/F Rookie at R3 for swing & donut loophole
- Cunnington (if fit...)

Rookie: - Looking at North for some cheapies here. I reckon the new coach will be looking to get time into the them. Will Phillips comes to mind.

Avoid: - Danger - pretty sure I won't start with him and unlikely to pick him up unless he's killing it later in the season.


Anyway, just thought I'd kick things off to get the creative juices flowing!

Cheers

 

[Lowrider]

Hi all.

Hope everyone is doing ok.

I am looking forward to a more normal footy/SC season this year. 2020 was disappointing but I'm keen to have a better year in 2021.

Thought I'd create this thread to kick things off.

I haven't really done my team yet but have started to check out a few bits. Some players that I am looking at:
- Laird - DEF/MID swing - reliable, good scorer and now with added flexibility
- Preuss in R2 - surely will get heaps of time if fit (look to Gawn or Grundy for R1 - leaning towards Gawn at the moment)
- Marshall F/R FWD with Treacy R/F Rookie at R3 for swing & donut loophole
- Cunnington (if fit...)

Rookie: - Looking at North for some cheapies here. I reckon the new coach will be looking to get time into the them. Will Phillips comes to mind.

Avoid: - Danger - pretty sure I won't start with him and unlikely to pick him up unless he's killing it later in the season.


Anyway, just thought I'd kick things off to get the creative juices flowing!

Cheers

Agree with Laird and think it's a good option starting him in midfield given the mid options all look over-priced and lots of uncertainty over who the top 10 will be.

Preuss is an interesting one. Mid-price rucks need to outperform mid-pricers elsewhere as it's a big step to reach one of the top 2, both points and price. Preuss has also been injured a lot which is hard to cover in rucks. Also a bit unclear what his scoring will be - If I'm picking him I'd want him to go 100 and we don't have a good history to support him being capable of that. And how do GWS structure their rucks? Can't see them playing him and Mummy together, but also can't see him playing 90% ruck. Back-up ruck last year was Finlayson but with Jezza gone how will they cover?
Marshall might give some security for a lot of these problems and if it wasn't for him being there I would have scrubbed Preuss completely.
At this stage I'm going Gawn/Grundy to reduce the risk of headaches. But will monitor what's happening at GWS.

 

[k-red17]

Agree with Laird and think it's a good option starting him in midfield given the mid options all look over-priced and lots of uncertainty over who the top 10 will be.

Preuss is an interesting one. Mid-price rucks need to outperform mid-pricers elsewhere as it's a big step to reach one of the top 2, both points and price. Preuss has also been injured a lot which is hard to cover in rucks. Also a bit unclear what his scoring will be - If I'm picking him I'd want him to go 100 and we don't have a good history to support him being capable of that. And how do GWS structure their rucks? Can't see them playing him and Mummy together, but also can't see him playing 90% ruck. Back-up ruck last year was Finlayson but with Jezza gone how will they cover?
Marshall might give some security for a lot of these problems and if it wasn't for him being there I would have scrubbed Preuss completely.
At this stage I'm going Gawn/Grundy to reduce the risk of headaches. But will monitor what's happening at GWS.

I'm staying away from Pruess mate too many concerns for me as you mentioned. I'm set on Grundy as R1 and debating whether to start Marshall in the FWD and await some news on a potential cheap R2 Ruck. The price of Gawn/Grundy just is too much 1.4 mil combined to go with the expensive mids this year.

One I'm looking at from the Pies is Quaynor, this kid has elite foot skills and will be a definite permanent fixture in the Pies back 6 this season. Could be the Jordan Ridley of 2020 (Albeit a little bit more expensive starting price ).

Daniher to hard to pass up on at that price also pending fitness. Even though I ruled out Pruess above for the same reasons too many concerns injury etc, I just think if fit he will fire for the Lions and he's gonna see plenty of it again if fit. If he plays round 1 hes in my squad.

 

[Orallus_Maximus]

Majak Daw - possible rookie with Melbourne? Could be an interesting option depending on what price/positon he comes in at.

 

[Orallus_Maximus]

Agree with Laird and think it's a good option starting him in midfield given the mid options all look over-priced and lots of uncertainty over who the top 10 will be.

Preuss is an interesting one. Mid-price rucks need to outperform mid-pricers elsewhere as it's a big step to reach one of the top 2, both points and price. Preuss has also been injured a lot which is hard to cover in rucks. Also a bit unclear what his scoring will be - If I'm picking him I'd want him to go 100 and we don't have a good history to support him being capable of that. And how do GWS structure their rucks? Can't see them playing him and Mummy together, but also can't see him playing 90% ruck. Back-up ruck last year was Finlayson but with Jezza gone how will they cover?
Marshall might give some security for a lot of these problems and if it wasn't for him being there I would have scrubbed Preuss completely.
At this stage I'm going Gawn/Grundy to reduce the risk of headaches. But will monitor what's happening at GWS.

Preuss - injured at training this week.... https://www.afl.com.au/news/549774/big-injury-concerns-for-giants-no-1-ruck-lachie-s-r1-doubt

 

[Scott Murfet]

Preuss out, Marshall out....back to set and forget the big 2 for me.

 

[Orallus_Maximus]

Preuss out, Marshall out....back to set and forget the big 2 for me.

Ouch!

I am also considering Gawn / Nic Nat combo.

 

[J-Dog]

Ouch!

I am also considering Gawn / Nic Nat combo.

Can’t say I’m a fan of the Nic Nat selection personally. I think the shorter games really suited him last year and he seems very much fully priced.

The only guy outside the big two I’ve really thought about is ROB. Right age for a ruckman, could see him taking another step this year

 

[alrighty then]

No love for Matthew Flynn as a rookie R2 or Sammy Draper as a mid pricer R2?

I personally had Sam Draper ahead of Preuss but that may be my bomber bias.

 

[Lowrider]

No love for Matthew Flynn as a rookie R2 or Sammy Draper as a mid pricer R2?

I personally had Sam Draper ahead of Preuss but that may be my bomber bias.

I'll consider Flynn for R3, but R2 is a bit too risky. Be a different story if he was locked in to the ruck, but with Briggs and Mummy there it's hard to be confident. Then if there's non-selection or injury you're left without anywhere to go.

 

[k-red17]

Tommy Phillips BOG in the Hawks intraclub @ 402k could we worth the punt if you're struggling to fit all your premos in or have to squeeze one out to generate cash elsewhere. Played as inside mid and with Titch under an injury cloud there's room in that midfield for him.

 

[Steve]

There's way too many tempting midpriced guys this year. I'm often happy to go with one of them and cut my losses if it doesn't work out but all of Daniher, Impey and Ziebell are priced between 212k-258k and could (should) average around 85.

I like it but I don't. It screams "trap", but there's so much value there.

 

[RichardC89]

Which trio would you select?

Option 1: Josh Kelly, Max Gawn, Jack Ziebell

Option 2: Tim Taranto, Brodie Grundy, Tom Stewart

 

[Rupert]

There's way too many tempting midpriced guys this year. I'm often happy to go with one of them and cut my losses if it doesn't work out but all of Daniher, Impey and Ziebell are priced between 212k-258k and could (should) average around 85.

I like it but I don't. It screams "trap", but there's so much value there.

atm I'm starting with all three. As you say, there's so much value.

Plus, I think we might be light on for first year rookies in the early rounds.
None of the 42-odd Victorian draftees played any serious footy last year. They are bound to be under-done compared to your usual first year players.

 

[Rupert]

Which trio would you select?

Option 1: Josh Kelly, Max Gawn, Jack Ziebell

Option 2: Tim Taranto, Brodie Grundy, Tom Stewart

I'd go Option 2 for a few reasons.
I can't see Gawn repeating his average from last year so he is probably over-priced. On the other hand, Grundy didn't like hub-life and is maybe under-priced. Remember, in 2019 it was Grundy who shaded Gawn on averages: 130.0 to 128.4.

Stewart looks to be a dead-set top-6 back. And he is under-priced given his 18 in rnd.3. Ziebell is also under-priced but there are issues: coming back from a couple of hammies; touted to play down back; in a lowly-ranked team under a new coach.

Kelly over Taranto any day but by how much? And Kelly can not stay on the park. In the last three seasons he's missed 3, 8 and 7 games.
I'm a bit doubtful about Taranto. He did have a very good year in 2019 but the Giants mid-field was often thread-bare: Ward played only the one (injury-affected) game; Coniglio played 15 games (missed the last 7); Kelly played 15 (missed 5 of the last 7); Whitfield played 16 and Hopper 19 (missed the last 3). I don't think Taranto's 2019 scoring is a good indication of how he might score with a full mid-field available..

Having said that, can you re-arrange your team a bit? I'm think starting with both Ziebell and Kelly is worthwhile.

 

[Lowrider]

Which trio would you select?

Option 1: Josh Kelly, Max Gawn, Jack Ziebell

Option 2: Tim Taranto, Brodie Grundy, Tom Stewart

I differ to @Rupert a little and would go option 1.

Jelly v TT, Jelly wins.

Gawn overpriced, but easy first half of the year and likely to be C the first 9 rounds.
Grundy may be underpriced, but he averaged just over 100 playing with Cameron. So a few unknowns this year and I'll be willing to bet he won't hit his 2019 highs.
I guess the main question though, what is your ruck strategy if you're not going Gawn/Grundy??? If you're going ROB, then I think you have to take him with Gawn and bet against Grundy. Rookie R2, then either.

Ziebell may be the bargain of the year. Supposedly thrived in the halfback role in the intraclub, taking intercepts and doing the quarterback role. Think we might be a chance of 90+, not that far off Stewart who's also missed weeks in the preseason with a quad injury.

 

[Seppo]

atm I'm starting with all three. As you say, there's so much value.

Plus, I think we might be light on for first year rookies in the early rounds.
None of the 42-odd Victorian draftees played any serious footy last year. They are bound to be under-done compared to your usual first year players.

I have all 3 in my side right now too...and I hate it. But, I just can't pay for a fwd premo I don't want/trust. I also don't see the rookies right now; I hope they show up.

I'm thinking Ziebell goes 80-85 if healthy. I don't think he has the foot skills to top 90, but an 80avg is a win if there aren't any quality rookie options. If healthy is also a huge factor.

Daniher only has one year over 70 (an 86avg in 2017). I'm not ready to declare he is a lock for 85; especially since Brisbane has so many avenues towards goal. I think he's much more likely to go 70-75. Tbh, that's probably a win too since that will have him up around $375k at some point. Same with Ziebell though; he hasn't been able to stay healthy for awhile.

Impey is going to average 50 if he doesn't get the halfback role. I don't think he's capable of an 85 either; I see him as around a 70-75 if he plays halfback. Also a win at his price with limited rookies available. I just think, with Clarko, he might only have the halfback role every other week or for 2 quarters a game.

In the end I'm probably going to end up picking 2 out of 3 so that leaves the option to pivot to the 3rd one if one of the picks goes horribly wrong. If I pick all 3 and one goes bad I'm left with needing to keep a mid/fwd rookie in the midfield and pivot to Rory Atkins or Jordan Clark. I kind of want to pick Clark anyway in the back line so that might take him away as a pivot option. There's just not much around that price point and it's pretty risky to pick them all if there aren't any rookies below them to fall back on. I think the fwd line might end up being the kingmaker this year in SC since there's so much uncertainty and so many viable ways to pick your fwds right now.

P.S. - I really want to pick Luke McDonald. I'm tossing up between Ziebell being the backline general hurting McDonald or helping him by freeing him up to go intercept everything. Anyone have any thoughts on that?

Super stoked for this season guys, great to be back!

 

[RichardC89]

I have all 3 in my side right now too...and I hate it. But, I just can't pay for a fwd premo I don't want/trust. I also don't see the rookies right now; I hope they show up.

I'm thinking Ziebell goes 80-85 if healthy. I don't think he has the foot skills to top 90, but an 80avg is a win if there aren't any quality rookie options. If healthy is also a huge factor.

Daniher only has one year over 70 (an 86avg in 2017). I'm not ready to declare he is a lock for 85; especially since Brisbane has so many avenues towards goal. I think he's much more likely to go 70-75. Tbh, that's probably a win too since that will have him up around $375k at some point. Same with Ziebell though; he hasn't been able to stay healthy for awhile.

Impey is going to average 50 if he doesn't get the halfback role. I don't think he's capable of an 85 either; I see him as around a 70-75 if he plays halfback. Also a win at his price with limited rookies available. I just think, with Clarko, he might only have the halfback role every other week or for 2 quarters a game.

In the end I'm probably going to end up picking 2 out of 3 so that leaves the option to pivot to the 3rd one if one of the picks goes horribly wrong. If I pick all 3 and one goes bad I'm left with needing to keep a mid/fwd rookie in the midfield and pivot to Rory Atkins or Jordan Clark. I kind of want to pick Clark anyway in the back line so that might take him away as a pivot option. There's just not much around that price point and it's pretty risky to pick them all if there aren't any rookies below them to fall back on. I think the fwd line might end up being the kingmaker this year in SC since there's so much uncertainty and so many viable ways to pick your fwds right now.

P.S. - I really want to pick Luke McDonald. I'm tossing up between Ziebell being the backline general hurting McDonald or helping him by freeing him up to go intercept everything. Anyone have any thoughts on that?

Super stoked for this season guys, great to be back!

Good summary overall and I think you hit the nail on the head with Ziebell, Daniher and Impey not needing to average unrealistic numbers in order to be worth it.

I currently have all three in my team. The reason I feel ok about this is if one of them starts super poorly, I can downgrade to a rookie I may have missed across any line via DPP. Not ideal, but not a disaster.

To finish, and in response to your PS at the end, I can’t see myself starting without Luke McDonald. A $512k gamble on someone that *could* be a top 2 defender? Why not, let’s have a little fun.

 

[haemorrhoidjoe]

Good summary overall and I think you hit the nail on the head with Ziebell, Daniher and Impey not needing to average unrealistic numbers in order to be worth it.

I currently have all three in my team. The reason I feel ok about this is if one of them starts super poorly, I can downgrade to a rookie I may have missed across any line via DPP. Not ideal, but not a disaster.

To finish, and in response to your PS at the end, I can’t see myself starting without Luke McDonald. A $512k gamble on someone that *could* be a top 2 defender? Why not, let’s have a little fun.

I agree with everything said here. Currently only have Ziebell and Impey in my side. Both playing halfback should net 70-75. Anything above that is a bonus. Daniher... well, i just can't trust him. Like others have said, Lions have a lot of avenues to goal and his body will undoubtedly let him and us down. Pass for mine. Would rather go a rookie or spend another $100k and get Caldwell.

Clark is one I've been thinking of too. It's either him or Hayden Young from Freo for that D3/D4 spot. Had Milera for a while but there's something about him I can't trust.

 

[Dunny29]

With shorter game time last year, premo's effectively played a greater % of game time, taking points from those lower down the food chain, is anyone taking this into consideration with selections and team balance? I assume most premo's are starting the season overvalued, some possibly by quite a bit.

I'm considering avoiding all the very highest priced players (eg Lloyd, Neale, Gawn, Danger) and going a little more heavy with mid priced/value picks as I think there may be minimal outstanding rookie options to start with (due to many rookies not playing at all/minimally last year). In addition there could possibly be very few of those vital mid season rookie cash cows that usually appear (I'm not sure on this, but even if not there is only so much time and trades mid season to take advantage and make up for the starting situation)

I think that it may be easier to be upgrading a midprice/value pick that has increased maybe a little over $100k to a premo who may have had one bad or even just a whole bunch of average premo games and could have dropped $100k in the first 6-10 rounds, instead of banking on rookies to get cash generation and having more cash to put into premo's from the start.

Even if it makes a full premo team difficult, I feel a traditional guns and rookies approach is going to lose too much value on initial premo selections and not get the expected gains from rookies anyway, so might be the year to try something a bit different. Maybe I'll end up with a not quite full premo team by finals, or even a bit of a budget premo team, but I think I'll get to this much quicker potentially than a normal strategy.


Has this potential scenario playing out (premos overpriced and rookies not making cash) impacted anyone's thinking/strategy?
Possibly in a similar or different way to me?
Or perhaps do most here think I'm looking way too deeply into it lol!