Round 8 Discussion and Trades

[Rupert]

It sounds like most people are looking at a double down-grade this week.
But to whom?
The most likely prospects:
Joyce,D: $123,900 - 60 and 67, StKilda def
Answerth,N: $117,300 - 69 and 72, Brisbane D/M
Hately,J: $148,800 - 95 and 85, GWS mid
Larkey,N: $123,900 - 75 and 40, North fwd
Corbett,J: $123,900 - 55 and 59, GC fwd
Moore, D: $123,900 - 40 and 74, Hawthorn fwd
or there are the 3 gamers:
Young, L: $153,500 - 42, 52 and 50, WB def
Hayes, W: $164,700 - 70, 55 and 49, WB mid

Corbett: seems to have the best JS but his scoring potential looks low.
Hately: looks to have the best scoring potential but a shaky JS.
Answerth: reasonable scoring and reasonable JS; D/M is a plus

 

[Geoff123]

Makes sense to double downgrade but I want to one up one down ! Maybe a pod to do this!

 

[Dunny29]

Based on all of the headaches team selections has given us recently, seems more than a bit pointless to bother looking at potential trades until Thursday evening!

Assuming both are named, a double downgrade to Hately and Answorth seems like a solid strategy to me considering there doesn't seem to be many rookies on the radar soon. I'd be trading bench players so my scoring isn't directly impacted. If both get 3 games before byes that could see decent cash generation given their scoring, but it is a risk having them not play during the bye rounds which could impact trading strategy during that crucial time.

Collins and Constable look to be the ones to go this week.

Next week I could be able to bring in L Ryan and J Cameron (or Hurn/Daniel if not enough cash) and get rid of 2 of Butters/Gibbons/Walsh/Ridley/Scrimshaw/Drew/Duursma/Parker pending selection/BE/cash.


*Will be tweaking my thinking for this week based on team selection and likelihood Hately/Answorth get games leading into byes. Perhaps for Hately's benefit, GWS start resting midfielders and/or are cautious on Kelly's return and possibly even give Taranto a rest soon to help him recover fully/freshen up.

 

[Orallus_Maximus]

I am looking at a couple of options this week:

Double downgrade to Hately & Answorth (trade out Butters & Scrimshaw / Libba)

or

1 down (Libba to Hately) 1 up (Butters to Westhoff (via DPP magic)


I like the idea of getting Westhoff at value price. He may offer extra value over the byes with DPP?

Was also hoping to keep Libba until the byes but he has very high BE and looks likely to lose quite a bit of cash - not sure whether to hang onto him or trade?

Job security (especially for Hately) concerns me a little too.

Current team:
DEF: Whitfield, Williams, Crisp, Dursma, Scrimshaw, Ridley [J Clark, Burgess]
MID: Cripps, McRae, Oliver, COGS, Rocky, Libba, Walsh, Constable [Drew, Gibbons, Butters]
RUC: Grundy, Mumford [O'Brien]
FWD: Danger, Kelly, Daniel, Billings, Moore, Parker [Pettrucelle, Bines]

$44k, 25 trades left.


Any thoughts/feedback?

 

[alrighty then]

I see the reasons for Westhoff and the value attraction, but is anyone concerned about those 3 really poor games? Doesn't seem to really be getting talked about too much.

If a role change dropped his scoring that much, are we sure that he isn't at risk to return to that poor scoring role throughout the year, resulting in a couple more 30's or 40's?

What are everyone's thoughts? I went early on Answerth last week (hoping he gets named) so I have Round 360k in the bank. Thinking of going down to Hately if named and with all that cash I would obviously have the option of anything. I'm looking at either Petruccelle to Westhoff or a Clarke/Constable to Lloyd

 

[Dash]

85 K - Seeking your best two trades this week. Double down, or up and down?

Laird, Whitfield, D Moore, Sicily, Duursma, Collins (Clark, Burgess)
Macrae, Cripps, Fyfe, Neale, Libba, Walsh, Butters, Atkins, (Hayes, Scott, Gibbons)
Gawn, Grundy, (Bines)
Danger, Heeney, Boak, Drew, Petrucelle, Parker (Setterfield, Balta)

 

[Rupert]

85 K - Seeking your best two trades this week. Double down, or up and down?

Laird, Whitfield, D Moore, Sicily, Duursma, Collins (Clark, Burgess)
Macrae, Cripps, Fyfe, Neale, Libba, Walsh, Butters, Atkins, (Hayes, Scott, Gibbons)
Gawn, Grundy, (Bines)
Danger, Heeney, Boak, Drew, Petrucelle, Parker (Setterfield, Balta)

You've got a few rookies ready to trade: Collins, Clark and Butters.
I'm in a similar position and doubling down. The cash gained is too good to ignore and it's time to move some rookies on. For me it's Clark and Butters.

 

[Dash]

85 K - Seeking your best two trades this week. Double down, or up and down?

Laird, Whitfield, D Moore, Sicily, Duursma, Collins (Clark, Burgess)
Macrae, Cripps, Fyfe, Neale, Libba, Walsh, Butters, Atkins, (Hayes, Scott, Gibbons)
Gawn, Grundy, (Bines)
Danger, Heeney, Boak, Drew, Petrucelle, Parker (Setterfield, Balta)

So do you think Collins stays out of the three. Cheers, Dash

 

[Rupert]

So do you think Collins stays out of the three. Cheers, Dash

I don't have Collins so not an issue with me.
Butters definitely goes as he has a 72BE but a 57 av.
Collins v Clark is almost a toss-up but I'd probably trade Clark first. Both have BE equal to the av.s. but Collins is scoring better. Collins has better JS as Clark missed rnd.6 when Tuohy played and may miss more games. He's a genuine rookie where Collins is a mature-ager.
It also depends on your bye coverage.

 

[Dash]

I don't have Collins so not an issue with me.
Butters definitely goes as he has a 72BE but a 57 av.
Collins v Clark is almost a toss-up but I'd probably trade Clark first. Both have BE equal to the av.s. but Collins is scoring better. Collins has better JS as Clark missed rnd.6 when Tuohy played and may miss more games. He's a genuine rookie where Collins is a mature-ager.
It also depends on your bye coverage.

Thanks for that. No Hately in which was surprising. Answorth has to be a definite. Not sure if I just sit with the one trade or try and get an upgrade as well.

 

[The Antrobus]

Whats the injury update in Whitfield?

Is he any longer than just this week as well?

 

[Rupert]

Whats the injury update in Whitfield?

Is he any longer than just this week as well?

Who knows?
The injury report on the GWS web-site said that he looked "likely" for this week but would have to get through training today. Obviously he didn't.
You'd think that if it was just a corky then he would return next week.
Unfortunately for those who have him, I seem to remember other GWS players in similar situations being "likely" for week after week without returning.
Having held him one week I'm more or less committed to keep holding him.

 

[Prospector]

Having held him one week I'm more or less committed to keep holding him.

This is the part that really hurts ...

 

[Flying Scotsman]

Sorry for the long one but I’m really second guessing myself. My team…

Whitfield Williams B.Smith Houli D.Moore Answerth (Duursma Clark)
Cripps Macrae Fyfe Rockliff B.Crouch Libba Walsh Drew (Constable Butters Scott)
Gawn Mumford (O’Brien)
Boak Danger Heeney Billings Lobb Baker (Petruccelle Bines)

I have 209k in the bank atm and have 23 trades left and none yet this week are used. My thoughts…

1 - Petruccelle and Butters out for Moore (Haw) and Kelly 111k left for next week

2 - Petruccelle and Butters out for Moore (Haw) and Bont only 27k left.

3 - I can also just afford to trade out Libba/Crouch and Drew for Bont and Kelly.. Just.

Sorry about the long essay. Love done thoughts. Thanks guys

 

[Prospector]

3 - I can also just afford to trade out Libba/Crouch and Drew for Bont and Kelly.. Just.

I'll be holding Drew while Wines is out ...

 

[Flying Scotsman]

I'll be holding Drew while Wines is out ...

That's exactly what i was thinking. Drew and Rocky will potentially cone good over the next month's. Leaning between option 1 and 2 tbh

 

[Orallus_Maximus]

Sorry for the long one but I’m really second guessing myself. My team…

Whitfield Williams B.Smith Houli D.Moore Answerth (Duursma Clark)
Cripps Macrae Fyfe Rockliff B.Crouch Libba Walsh Drew (Constable Butters Scott)
Gawn Mumford (O’Brien)
Boak Danger Heeney Billings Lobb Baker (Petruccelle Bines)

I have 209k in the bank atm and have 23 trades left and none yet this week are used. My thoughts…

1 - Petruccelle and Butters out for Moore (Haw) and Kelly 111k left for next week

2 - Petruccelle and Butters out for Moore (Haw) and Bont only 27k left.

3 - I can also just afford to trade out Libba/Crouch and Drew for Bont and Kelly.. Just.

Sorry about the long essay. Love done thoughts. Thanks guys

Assuming you mean Tim Kelly, I'd go first option. Might give you more flexibility during the bye rounds.

 

[Dunny29]

Based on all of the headaches team selections has given us recently, seems more than a bit pointless to bother looking at potential trades until Thursday evening!

Assuming both are named, a double downgrade to Hately and Answorth seems like a solid strategy to me considering there doesn't seem to be many rookies on the radar soon. I'd be trading bench players so my scoring isn't directly impacted. If both get 3 games before byes that could see decent cash generation given their scoring, but it is a risk having them not play during the bye rounds which could impact trading strategy during that crucial time.

Collins and Constable look to be the ones to go this week.

Next week I could be able to bring in L Ryan and J Cameron (or Hurn/Daniel if not enough cash) and get rid of 2 of Butters/Gibbons/Walsh/Ridley/Scrimshaw/Drew/Duursma/Parker pending selection/BE/cash.


*Will be tweaking my thinking for this week based on team selection and likelihood Hately/Answorth get games leading into byes. Perhaps for Hately's benefit, GWS start resting midfielders and/or are cautious on Kelly's return and possibly even give Taranto a rest soon to help him recover fully/freshen up.

Looks at team selections...flips the table

2 down isn't really an option for me now with no Hately, Currently have 3 defenders not playing and assuming danger doesn't play, no bench cover anywhere.

Whitfield comes back next week you would think, for me Ridley has to go as I like the Moore DPP with Burgess and I need to keep Moore fwd as I risk a donut I can't do anything about if Danger doesn't play on Sunday.

This leaves me with a bunch of cash, was thinking Drew to Daniel, but as above with Wines out that could help him.
I'm happy to hold Butters as he is at a price level that 1 game could see him rise $50k+ over 3 weeks and with Wines out should come back next week with increased scoring. He is at an awkward price point, not enough to cull over others IMO, I have several rookies $300k+ I can.
Walsh or B Crouch I can trade to anyone and keep more cash, but doesn't make my team much better today.

Other option is Collins to anyone, thinking of taking the punt on Ryan which at this stage is a POD and carries added risk to me if it goes wrong compared to the majority. Based off averages this makes my team 40 points better (not including his 145 last week), even more based off recent scores of both. Doesn't leave me with any bench cover this week, but on field looks stronger.


*A few people on radio this morning saying Danger is unlikely and Ablett barely trained and could be rested. If so I think there is a decent chance that Constable plays this week, perhaps we find out with final Sunday teams tonight rather than on Sunday. He is up for a $19k rise if he can hit his average.


So...Luke Ryan, Yay or Nay?

 

[J-Dog]

Looks at team selections...flips the table

2 down isn't really an option for me now with no Hately, Currently have 3 defenders not playing and assuming danger doesn't play, no bench cover anywhere.

Whitfield comes back next week you would think, for me Ridley has to go as I like the Moore DPP with Burgess and I need to keep Moore fwd as I risk a donut I can't do anything about if Danger doesn't play on Sunday.

This leaves me with a bunch of cash, was thinking Drew to Daniel, but as above with Wines out that could help him.
I'm happy to hold Butters as he is at a price level that 1 game could see him rise $50k+ over 3 weeks and with Wines out should come back next week with increased scoring. He is at an awkward price point, not enough to cull over others IMO, I have several rookies $300k+ I can.
Walsh or B Crouch I can trade to anyone and keep more cash, but doesn't make my team much better today.

Other option is Collins to anyone, thinking of taking the punt on Ryan which at this stage is a POD and carries added risk to me if it goes wrong compared to the majority. Based off averages this makes my team 40 points better (not including his 145 last week), even more based off recent scores of both. Doesn't leave me with any bench cover this week, but on field looks stronger.


*A few people on radio this morning saying Danger is unlikely and Ablett barely trained and could be rested. If so I think there is a decent chance that Constable plays this week, perhaps we find out with final Sunday teams tonight rather than on Sunday. He is up for a $19k rise if he can hit his average.


So...Luke Ryan, Yay or Nay?

I don’t mind Ryan, reasonable chance to be top 6 down back.

Not sure I agree with your Butters assessment though. His BE is 72, which he’s only scored above twice. He has a 30 rolling through his system for the next two weeks, and that’s after he is recalled anyway which means minimum three rounds before he has any serious price hike. I agree he’s an awkward price and sucks he couldn’t make more money, but it is what it is sometimes

 

[Dunny29]

Sorry for the long one but I’m really second guessing myself. My team…

Whitfield Williams B.Smith Houli D.Moore Answerth (Duursma Clark)
Cripps Macrae Fyfe Rockliff B.Crouch Libba Walsh Drew (Constable Butters Scott)
Gawn Mumford (O’Brien)
Boak Danger Heeney Billings Lobb Baker (Petruccelle Bines)

I have 209k in the bank atm and have 23 trades left and none yet this week are used. My thoughts…

1 - Petruccelle and Butters out for Moore (Haw) and Kelly 111k left for next week

2 - Petruccelle and Butters out for Moore (Haw) and Bont only 27k left.

3 - I can also just afford to trade out Libba/Crouch and Drew for Bont and Kelly.. Just.

Sorry about the long essay. Love done thoughts. Thanks guys

I don't mind Option 3 (not sure how it impacts bye structure etc).
You might lose some cash gain with Drew but doubt it will be much, you might save more getting rid of Libba this week. If you don't get rid of him now you are hoping he strings together 4-5 great games soon to get his price back up, or that he becomes a keeper.
Bont is a bold pick (in case he spends some time forward throughout the year which may impact scoring), but for the time being he is dominating.

I don't mind holding Butters if you can, although he has a high BE to his average and I think he is being rested rather than dropped this week. If he comes back next week it only takes 1 good score and as the bad ones cycle out he could increase $50+ in 3 weeks, getting to the $300k mark that makes 1 up 1 down much easier to maintain. You should be able to trade Mummy/O'Brien to Gawn and upgrade a forward (Baker probably) and still have some loose change if they keep scoring well (putting Bines back at R3), which is 2 up for 2 trades in a week. You will probably have 8 other upgradeable/cullable players ($300k+) for the next few weeks, so I don't think you need to move on Butters unless you think he won't play much more this season. He isn't going to lose cash quickly by holding him, you will get more opportunity to keep upgrading by culling the $300k+ rookies.