Round 16 Discussion & Trade Talk

[gloryboy]

I'm surprised you didn't have Callan Ward on the list or in your analysis. Ranked #22 for season average (102.0) but #3 over the past 5 weeks (118.2). B/E is relatively high but is someone you'd look to ride out for the rest of the season. I'm also always a sucker for the big-bodied contested ball mids.

There's always a sneaky option that goes under the radar, can't list them all

 

[Yort]

Jack Billings #supercoach Averages in 2018
OVERALL = 73

WINS (3) = 109
LOSES (9) = 60

R1-R12 = 69
R13-R15 = 98

2017 Averages
R1-R12 = 87
R13-R23 = 98

SK play 6 of the last 8 games at Etihad against
CA RI WB ES HA NM

Plus 2 away games against
PA GW


Could he be the Perfect F7 loophole?

SK have 3xFRI 2xSAT 2xSAT-N games remaining

ME play after SK in every remaining round.

SK ME game times
SA SA-N
FR SA
FR SA-N
SA SA-N
SA-N SU
FR SU
SA-N SU

Tim Smith (ME) and Fritsch come to mind...

kept billings this whole time, so riding the B train all the way, his last couple of weeks have been passable, maybe 1 more to see if he can keep it up and then go for it, otherwise Fritch is my call mate, he has been super consistent all year and not dropped once ( i think). Not huge on the stats.

 

[Yort]

Righto everyone,

Copped Fyfe as C due to Ahern being a late in

Whats the plan for Nat Fyfe? How many weeks will he need to be out in order to pull the trigger? I also have Heeney and if he doesn't play could cop a donut if Spargo or Smith don't come back in. Hows everyone else fairing?

been carnage for me, but 4-5 weeks, the man has to go, i held Kelly for 4 weeks at the start and it cost me games, can t afford it on the run home.

 

[gloryboy]

Some more scoring Profiles for TRADE IN TARGETS

Andrew Gaff

2018 #supercoach averages
OVERALL(14)=109

WIN(10)=110
LOSS(4)=106

OS(8)=106
away(6)=108

Top 5(4)=97
6 to 10(3)=120
Bottom 8(7)=111

WC's draw
GW-OS
CO-MCG
WB-OS
NM-BA
FR-OS
PA-AO
ME-OS
BL-G



Lachie Neale
The no Sandi factor is a myth?

2015-2018 #supercoach averages - # games in brackets
no Sandi/no Fyfe(18*)=113 *FR lost 14 games

with Sandi/no Fyfe(6)=112
with Sandi/with Fyfe(43)=107
with Fyfe/no Sandi(14)=102

Sandi is out 3wks
Fyfe is out 4-5wks




Josh P Kennedy

2018 #supercoach averages
OVERALL(14)=102

WIN(10)=97.8
LOSS(4)=112.5

SCG(7)=103.4
away(7)=94

Top 8(6)=110.3
Bottom 10(8)=95.8

Top 5(4)=111.3 (1 remaining)
6 to 10(4)=110.3 (5 remaining)
Bottom 8(6)=90.3 (2 remaining)

 

[Yort]

With fyfe out my big decision is weather to side swap the man bun to someone around or under (I have no cash) his price (neale, gaff), or do I burn 1 trade for an underpriced cash cow and scrap together the coin to go all out for Titch, 8 trades left (yes i know ive been hoarding) but wont leave many for the run home and still have 1 more backline upgrade which im saving holman for. thought guys.

 

[gloryboy]

With fyfe out my big decision is weather to side swap the man bun to someone around or under (I have no cash) his price (neale, gaff), or do I burn 1 trade for an underpriced cash cow and scrap together the coin to go all out for Titch, 8 trades left (yes i know ive been hoarding) but wont leave many for the run home and still have 1 more backline upgrade which im saving holman for. thought guys.

With 8 trades, I would be trying to get Titch into your side. If you don't grab him this week, he'll be up at around $660-665k in a couple of weeks.

 

[Centroprise]

Yeah for sure, just saw the update on the AFL site myself. JPK seems like the obvious choice but I am thinking a little differently. I'm thinking Matt Crouch to come in seems that Sloane back helps his scoring and freedom, that then leaves me 100k spare to hopefully upgrade Shaw to a premium defender like Webster/Lloyd at the start of finals. I just want him gone after another crap score on the weekend.

Nice option with MCrouch. I like it and provide Sloane stays fit and on the park, he will most always cope the number 1 tagger which frees up MCrouch.

 

[Bridget]

been carnage for me, but 4-5 weeks, the man has to go, i held Kelly for 4 weeks at the start and it cost me games, can t afford it on the run home.

At least with Fyfe we know from the outset.
Kelly ended up being longer than originally reported, so it was harder to know what to do week to week.

 

[Elliot H-R]

Hey guys

Webster vs Tmac vs Lloyd

Webster-injury/groin issue
Tmac-injury, can he do well against the better opponents, potential role change?
Lloyd-High ownership, hard to maintain break out season (already 20 points improvement from last season)

Thanks!

 

[Centroprise]

Settled on JPK in for Fyfe. Was also going to go Guelfi to Westhoff to complete my team..but the value Heeney will present in three weeks might be too good to pass up. He could be up to 40K cheaper.

 

[Rupert]

Hey guys
Webster vs Tmac vs Lloyd
Webster-injury/groin issue
Tmac-injury, can he do well against the better opponents, potential role change?
Lloyd-High ownership, hard to maintain break out season (already 20 points improvement from last season)
Thanks!

I've got all three and happy with all three. Can you wait a week or two before choosing?
Webster and T Mac have high BEs - 160 and 196.
Lloyd is overpriced even with his low 88BE. At $565,900 you'd want an average of about 110+ for him to be anywhere near value for money. I expect him to continue to score well but not that well.
Compare Lloyd's first nine rounds from last year before he was injured to this year:
2017: SC - 100.1 vs DT - 104.1
2018: SC - 107.4 vs DT - 100.4
This is the first year that Lloyd has a better SC average than DT average. Either he has improved as a player, not unlikely as this is his 5th year, or he is doing the things that CD value.

 

[Elliot H-R]

I've got all three and happy with all three. Can you wait a week or two before choosing?
Webster and T Mac have high BEs - 160 and 196.
Lloyd is overpriced even with his low 88BE. At $565,900 you'd want an average of about 110+ for him to be anywhere near value for money. I expect him to continue to score well but not that well.
Compare Lloyd's first nine rounds from last year before he was injured to this year:
2017: SC - 100.1 vs DT - 104.1
2018: SC - 107.4 vs DT - 100.4
This is the first year that Lloyd has a better SC average than DT average. Either he has improved as a player, not unlikely as this is his 5th year, or he is doing the things that CD value.

Cash is a VERY small factor, but if player A is just as good as player B, A is cheaper, i take A. However, i put performance as 1st priority over cost. With that in mind, which would you recommend? I'm looking for the highest average one with good durability.

 

[Rupert]

Cash is a VERY small factor, but if player A is just as good as player B, A is cheaper, i take A. However, i put performance as 1st priority over cost. With that in mind, which would you recommend? I'm looking for the highest average one with good durability.

You've pretty much summed it up in your initial question:
Lloyd for good durability. Highest average? Probably Lloyd again.

 

[Crackhead]

For those heavily considering Matt Crouch, he will play tomorrow but Crows have confirmed he has a fractured hand. Is it too big a risk?

I cant go JPK. Has killed me along with Selwood for last 3 years

 

[luke394]

For those heavily considering Matt Crouch, he will play tomorrow but Crows have confirmed he has a fractured hand. Is it too big a risk?

I cant go JPK. Has killed me along with Selwood for last 3 years

This changes the plans for sure going to have to re assess also like Gaff & Higgins as a POD

 

[Steve]

I'm going Gaff. Not overly exciting but WCE dont have the worst draw, JPK has a tough few weeks coming up, cant trust Oliver with too many sub 100 scores this year, Kelly is too popular and has only flat tracked it so far this year. Safe and boring but solid.

 

[Crackhead]

Beams? Surely a massive POD and looked good last week and a couple weeks before that HMMMM

 

[Crackhead]

I'm going Gaff. Not overly exciting but WCE dont have the worst draw, JPK has a tough few weeks coming up, cant trust Oliver with too many sub 100 scores this year, Kelly is too popular and has only flat tracked it so far this year. Safe and boring but solid.

Yep safe as house but in big games he has gone bigish, eagles need him to be at his best in next few weeks if they want to hold top 4... i will prob go the same as only a few trades left.. so many tempting options though

 

[Dash]

10 Trades - 20k Just after some advice this week for trades
Thinking Fyfe and cash in Cole for a cheap rookie. Thoughts?

DEF: Laird, H Shaw, Simpson, Sicily, Yeo, T Cole (Austin, L Murphy)
MID: Rockliff, Dusty, Danger, Fyfe, Cogs,Titch, Oliver, Cripps (Giro, Brayshaw (freo), Ahern)
RUC: Gawn, NicNat (Olango)
FWD: Maclean, R Gray, Buddy, D Smith, Billings, Petracca (Heeney, Guelfi)

 

[Bridget]

Thinking of going Fyfe to Neale.
Neale is one of the most inform mids with only 1 score below 100 in his past 10 games, and a three round average of 127.
However, not sure what affect Fyfe out will have on his scoring.
Thoughts?