Round 15 Discussion and Trade Talk

[moosey]

Have Sicily Laird Yeo and Simpson in the back line, who are the next best premo's i should bring in? Cheers

If cash is not an issue Lloyd is looking the goods.

 

[Nicko]

If cash is not an issue Lloyd is looking the goods.

Not a real issue but wouldn't mind a bit of a value pic

 

[Centroprise]

Not a real issue but wouldn't mind a bit of a value pic

Crisp and Ryan currently averaging 108+ in the last five rounds at $525 & $516

Wait for Webster is you want cheap

 

[moosey]

Not a real issue but wouldn't mind a bit of a value pic

Hurley (95) $449K, Webster (95) $462K if he returns & Howe (96) $474K are all value but with Webster he has a massive BE and needs to be selected.

 

[Yort]

Not sure what to do with Treloar. I'm currently in the top 250 so holding seems like not an option if he misses. Trying to find a replacement under 520k so I can bring in Lloyd as well. Thinking Gaff, Beams or Zerret.....

Gaff mate. Wish I could get hih myself

 

[Yort]

need help guys, its time to move on Holman (still have t kelly in the midfield as well), no cash and none of my rookies can get me nuff to upgrade, got giro and ahern to cover so all good if needed, jst not sure if i shpuld do my last upgrade in the backline and use all the casdh, or Kelly - mitchell in the midfield and have 67 thou left for the last midfield upgrade next week, might not have enough cash left to get the full team for a while yet, what more important do u think, full upgrade of midfield first or tidy up the backline first. thoughts??

 

[Centroprise]

need help guys, its time to move on Holman (still have t kelly in the midfield as well), no cash and none of my rookies can get me nuff to upgrade, got giro and ahern to cover so all good if needed, jst not sure if i shpuld do my last upgrade in the backline and use all the casdh, or Kelly - mitchell in the midfield and have 67 thou left for the last midfield upgrade next week, might not have enough cash left to get the full team for a while yet, what more important do u think, full upgrade of midfield first or tidy up the backline first. thoughts??

Personally I think Mitchell is a must have and I'd go midfield. Webster will be really cheap in a few weeks if you have coverage in the back line and has the potential to 100+ for the rest of the season (or get hurt twice)

 

[m4ttdog]

Have Sicily Laird Yeo and Simpson in the back line, who are the next best premo's i should bring in? Cheers

I am taking a bit of a pint and going with crisp this week. I have one other defender spot to fill after bringing in Crisp and will probably pick between Hurley and Webster

 

[Crackhead]

Here's something I prepared earlier

Shuey 90-95 (averages in past seasons 2010-2017 74 95 103 91 100 97 106 96) - note doesn't include AFL finals series

WC has just had 2 bad losses, which may be reflective of Shuey's recent scores, but he could also be a bit slow coming back from injury. You'd expect him to get back to scoring of around 90-95?
Shuey tends to be a bit of a downhill skier, and is up and about in wins. In 2017, his average in wins=105 and loses=85, overall=96
WC have a 2xTop5 + 3xMiddle6-10 + 4xBottom8 games on the run home, but 5 games away from Optus.

Shuey is a gamble, it could pay off, but I would temper expectations with him. The difference between him and a gun could be 20 pts. Also there could be injury risk with him, or low scoring. Or he could return to an average of 100, which is what he started with in 2018.

Personally I would double trade to get a gun. That still leaves you with 5 trades. I'm in the same scenario in DEF. 7 trades left. 1 trade to gamble on a 450k player, or go and get a gun. I'm leaning towards a gun at this stage.

Awesome analysis, cheers mate. I didnt mention i brought jkkennedy for walters to get through the byes which will also take a couple trades to rectify. So 7 trades can very quickly become 3...

 

[Elliot H-R]

Hey guys, long time reader here but haven't had many chances to engage in discussion much with you guys unfortunately!

Hope everyone is going well with their seasons, and personally I am struggling a bit so need some help.

So i'm about to complete my defense this week by trading out Richards. I have about 530k to spend on a premium defender.

I already have Simpson, Laird, Yeo, Sicily and Savage, and I can't afford Lloyd/Mcdonald. Webster is out this week so can't consider him either.

There're a couple of players in the 450-530k range I'm interested such as: Crisp, Howe, Rance, Brayshaw, Ryan, Shaw, Hurn.

So anyways my question is: Who do you think will score the most of all defender in the $450k-$530k range from now onwards while having good durability?

Thanks so much!

 

[The Antrobus]

I like Crisp or Howe.
Crisp gets a run through the middle and potentially even more with Treloar out.

 

[Crackhead]

Hey guys, long time reader here but haven't had many chances to engage in discussion much with you guys unfortunately!

Hope everyone is going well with their seasons, and personally I am struggling a bit so need some help.

So i'm about to complete my defense this week by trading out Richards. I have about 530k to spend on a premium defender.

I already have Simpson, Laird, Yeo, Sicily and Savage, and I can't afford Lloyd/Mcdonald. Webster is out this week so can't consider him either.

There're a couple of players in the 450-530k range I'm interested such as: Crisp, Howe, Rance, Brayshaw, Ryan, Shaw, Hurn.

So anyways my question is: Who do you think will score the most of all defender in the $450k-$530k range from now onwards while having good durability?

Thanks so much!

Luke Ryan has been awesome for me. However I would go jack crisp... heath shaw supercoach freiendly role

 

[Orallus_Maximus]

".... a pint and going with crisp ..."

A Pint and crisps sounds like a ripper idea mate!

 

[Orallus_Maximus]

Trading conundrum for me this week.

Have 7 trades left & $113k cash

Current team
D: Siciliy, Yeo, Laird, Simpson, HShaw, Brayshaw (Austin, Rice)
M: Fyfe, TMitch, Oliver, Danger, Cripps, Cogs, Dusty, Rocky (Holman, JSmith, Giro)
R: Gawn, Nank (Cameron)
F: Heeney, DSmith, MClean, Wingard, Petracca, Billings (TSmith, Ahern)

Current thoughts are:
1. Do nothing and save trades
2. Burn 2 trades - DPP JSmith into either Austin/Rice and bring in Dawson (1 game rookie). Enough cash to upgrade Holman > Josh Kelly - leaves me with 5 trades a little cash left over for injuries etc.
3. Holman > Walters (DPP to swing Ahern FWD) - $4k cash left over and still 6 trades


I'm leaning towards Option 3 as it saves a trade and provide better DPP flexibility across the team.

Going for league wins now cos my rank is crap (sitting at 12k in ranks)


I would appreciate any thoughts/insights/suggestions.

 

[Elliot H-R]

I like Crisp or Howe.
Crisp gets a run through the middle and potentially even more with Treloar out.

Thanks for the reply! I'm actually not sure if him playing mid is a good thing. He had played mid for years and scoring quite a bit below premiums, it's only until recently when he started playing more HB when he started scoring well

 

[Rupert]

With Kade Simpson hitting 300 games this week-end I thought it might be nice to remember a hero of my younger days, another 300-game Carlton defender: Bruce Doull - "the Flying Doormat".
His record: 356 games, 4 x premierships, 4 x B&Fs, 1 x Norm Smith, Carlton Hall of Fame. AFL Team of the Century.
I'm a Sainter but I loved to watch Doull play. I only saw him play when he was in his 30s but he was a legend. He could play tall or short, CHB or HBF or BP and was rarely beaten.
Here he is late in his career being chased by a much younger Dunstall.

 

[Fisker FC]

Just seeing why no one is talking about Neale?
Coming off another 150+ game. Brisbane at home this week and lots of games in perth coming up.
I need to trade Treloar and considering: Neale, Danger, Kelly or Higgins. Strongly leaning towards Neale.
Not sold on Kelly just beating up 2 soft teams with GWS tough run coming up and his groin could flare up any moment.

 

[Rupert]

Just seeing why no one is talking about Neale?
Coming off another 150+ game. Brisbane at home this week and lots of games in perth coming up.
I need to trade Treloar and considering: Neale, Danger, Kelly or Higgins. Strongly leaning towards Neale.
Not sold on Kelly just beating up 2 soft teams with GWS tough run coming up and his groin could flare up any moment.

Walters back might be an issue.
In 3 games without Walters Neale averages 133.33: 123, 118 and 159. Include the rnd.6 game in which Walters was injured and Neale scored 151 and the no-Walters average is 137.75.
In 10 games with Walters he averages 100.6: 99, 96, 77, 85, 100, 151, 110, 74, 104 and 110. Remove the rnd.6 score and the average is 95.0.
Neale's 4 best scores have all been with no Walters and a lowest of 118. His best score with Walters playing a full game is 110.
It may just be coincidence - it's only 3/4 games - but you'd think that if Walters plays then Neale's average will be in the 100-105 range.
I'm not saying don't pick Neale - other factors come in to play: the rookies getting tired, the game plan gelling more as the season progresses etc
Just be aware of what has happened.

 

[smirski]

In a bit of a tough spot after trading in Andrews last week. I have 5 trades left with one defender spot that isn’t premium. To get to a full premium side I will have to burn two trades and bench Andrews for next 2-3 weeks. So I’m left with these options.

1) Trade Andrews cut my loses and sit on 4 trades until timing is better to upgrade last defender.
2) Hold Andrews and upgrade around him trading out Holman and Murphy. Leaving me around 480k for an upgrade (Hurley).
3) Hold Andrews and sit on 5 trades waiting for other rookies to make dollars, so hopefully I can reach the likes of Lloyd.

I most likely have a donut this week if I don’t trade. I am not concerned about ranking at this point, just winning leagues.

 

[Orallus_Maximus]

In a bit of a tough spot after trading in Andrews last week. I have 5 trades left with one defender spot that isn’t premium. To get to a full premium side I will have to burn two trades and bench Andrews for next 2-3 weeks. So I’m left with these options.

1) Trade Andrews cut my loses and sit on 4 trades until timing is better to upgrade last defender.
2) Hold Andrews and upgrade around him trading out Holman and Murphy. Leaving me around 480k for an upgrade (Hurley).
3) Hold Andrews and sit on 5 trades waiting for other rookies to make dollars, so hopefully I can reach the likes of Lloyd.

I most likely have a donut this week if I don’t trade. I am not concerned about ranking at this point, just winning leagues.

Ouch! I'm not doctro but I can't see Andrews coming back for at least 2 - 3 weeks at the earliest. Too much risk with the concussion. I'd be trading him...