Round 14 Discussion and Trade Talk

Yort

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im trading 1 down/ 1 up this week just moving Austin on ( he is the only 1 with any cash right now), swinging sicily down back to brin in ahern. then its either doddee- simpson in the backline. or t.kelly - oliver in the mid. still have holman but need the warm body onfield, even after this i only have 15 players and i feel a littel melbourne heavy right now. thought guys.
 

Yort

Aspiring Coach
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14 Trades - 330K - Your trade suggestions are appreciated.
DEF: Shaw, Simpson, Austin, Doedee, Yeo, T Cole (Laird, L Murphy)
MID: Rockliff, Danger, Fyfe, Cogs,Titch, Holman, Petracca, Brayshaw, (Giro, E Phillips, Dusty)
RUC: Gawn, NicNat (Olango)
FWD: Heeney, Maclean, Sicily, Fritsch, D Smith, Guelfi (Buddy, Billings)
so many options for you mate, doddee is my big move this week (to simpson, but you could get t mac no problem). Or move murphy on now he look to be out of favour and with you r spare cash you could get any of the premiums (depending how much u want to spend, or look to upgrading phillips for any of the top mids. would say move on petracca but he is playing this week so prob hold off there, wish I had as much cash in the kitty as you mate, good luck
 

Rupert

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Nice to have the 6.10pm WA start time. Means we have an extra 30min to decide on trades.
 
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Prospector

“Think it over, think it under.”
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missing 1 week with a hairline leg fracture sounds a bit suspect. I would have thought any such fracture would be at least a 6 week injury, but will trust what they say.
I don't trust that call.
 

Bombers56

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im trading 1 down/ 1 up this week just moving Austin on ( he is the only 1 with any cash right now), swinging sicily down back to brin in ahern. then its either doddee- simpson in the backline. or t.kelly - oliver in the mid. still have holman but need the warm body onfield, even after this i only have 15 players and i feel a littel melbourne heavy right now. thought guys.
For me it would be a toss up between Simpson & Oliver. Which one would depend on how your side looks like next week?
 

Lowrider

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Fully "upgraded" this week with 5 trades left.

I'm not entirely happy as I think my last spot in each line is weak - Savage, Miller, Fritsch - but I think my bench cover is strong. I have a small amount of cash so if any of those guys look like being disasters I'll upgrade them.
 

Rupert

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Fully "upgraded" this week with 5 trades left.

I'm not entirely happy as I think my last spot in each line is weak - Savage, Miller, Fritsch - but I think my bench cover is strong. I have a small amount of cash so if any of those guys look like being disasters I'll upgrade them.
Fritsch is/will be my F6, too. He's been surprisingly good. If he keeps playing wing then I won't be too sorry if I can't upgrade him. Since his return after rnd.5 he's averaged 89.
In terms of recent scores, he is ranked 18th for his 3-rnd average and 19th for his 5-rnd. When you remove the LTIs and injury/suspension prone, then he is ranked about 11th and 12th.
By way of comparison, here are some of the players I have heard being mentioned as potential trade-ins:
Fritsch: $416,200 - 94.3 (3 rnd.), 93.6 (5 rnd)
De Goey: $437,500 - 89.1, 94.0
Westhoff: $480,500 - 93.7, 97.2
Gunston: $444,700 - 89.7, 94.6
Hogan: $481,200 - 103.0, 92.6.
Menegola: $490,000 - 92.7, 92.4
Wingard: $394, 600 - 89.3, 85.4
In this company Fritsch goes largely unsung and un-noticed. He has no history and no hype. He has had no 130+SC game. But he's consistent.
There are some players I definitely would prefer to have, but the list isn't that long: T Mac, Heeney, Franklin, Gray, Sicily and D Smith. They average between 10-15 points more than Fritsch has since his return. They also cost $70,00-$140,000 more than Fritsch.
Wingard if I could trust Port to continue to play him on the ball. And you'd make a $20K profit.
Due to injuries I'm running out of trades so holding on to Fritsch is a no-brainer. But even if I wasn't I'd still be keeping Fritsch for the short-term. He's got Port this week but then a run of relatively good games - St.Kilda, Freo, WBD, Geelong, Adelaide, GCS.
Unless he loses all form I'll be waiting until after the GCS game before I consider trading him.
 
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Toadvine

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Guelfi projected to go up to 305k with his score of 63. I'm hoping Andrews doesn't score more that 115 and I can bring him in next week. Unfortunately I'm going to be about 20k short of bringing in Lloyd unless I use 2 trades. With only 5 left that's not really an option.
 

Lowrider

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Fritsch is/will be my F6, too. He's been surprisingly good. If he keeps playing wing then I won't be too sorry if I can't upgrade him. Since his return after rnd.5 he's averaged 89.
In terms of recent scores, he is ranked 18th for his 3-rnd average and 19th for his 5-rnd. When you remove the LTIs and injury/suspension prone, then he is ranked about 11th and 12th.
By way of comparison, here are some of the players I have heard being mentioned as potential trade-ins:
Fritsch: $416,200 - 94.3 (3 rnd.), 93.6 (5 rnd)
De Goey: $437,500 - 89.1, 94.0
Westhoff: $480,500 - 93.7, 97.2
Gunston: $444,700 - 89.7, 94.6
Hogan: $481,200 - 103.0, 92.6.
Menegola: $490,000 - 92.7, 92.4
Wingard: $394, 600 - 89.3, 85.4
In this company Fritsch goes largely unsung and un-noticed. He has no history and no hype. He has had no 130+SC game. But he's consistent.
There are some players I definitely would prefer to have, but the list isn't that long: T Mac, Heeney, Franklin, Gray, Sicily and D Smith. They average between 10-15 points more than Fritsch has since his return. They also cost $70,00-$140,000 more than Fritsch.
Wingard if I could trust Port to continue to play him on the ball. And you'd make a $20K profit.
Due to injuries I'm running out of trades so holding on to Fritsch is a no-brainer. But even if I wasn't I'd still be keeping Fritsch for the short-term. He's got Port this week but then a run of relatively good games - St.Kilda, Freo, WBD, Geelong, Adelaide, GCS.
Unless he loses all form I'll be waiting until after the GCS game before I consider trading him.
That's exactly why I'm happy to keep him F6. If he keeps up this wing role, he'll be a more than adequate F6.

Overall my forward is weaker. I've ended up not getting Gray. I just looked at his recent scoring/role and decided to go with the cheaper Westhoff. That allowed to do all my moves this week. I have gone without a few of the main guys (McLean, Franklin, Gray, TMac) but I'm happy to take them on at this stage of the season and go a little different.
 

gloryboy

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Guelfi projected to go up to 305k with his score of 63. I'm hoping Andrews doesn't score more that 115 and I can bring him in next week. Unfortunately I'm going to be about 20k short of bringing in Lloyd unless I use 2 trades. With only 5 left that's not really an option.
Not sure where your projections are sourced from, but I have him rising $16k so will go from $293.7k to about $310k. That probably doesn't help your scenario though!
 
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gloryboy

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#supercoach R15 Breakevens* (WC/ES)
Hurley=93
Shuey=99
Gaff=116
Hurn=124
DevonSmith=69
NicNat=127
Zerrett=75

Guelfi=50
Redman=-95
Liam Ryan=79
Tom Cole=66
McKernan=91

*approximations
 
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Toadvine

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gloryboy

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R14 #supercoach Price Projections

Michael Hurley
Price $460.4k
Score 85
PriceChange -$10k
New Price $450k (approx)

Matt Guelfi
Price $293.7k
Score 63
PriceChange $16k
New Price $310k (approx)

Luke Shuey
Price $416.6k
Score 56
PriceChange -$53k
New Price $364k (approx.)

Andrew Gaff
Price $537.3k
Score 122
PriceChange -$19k
New Price $518k (approx.)
 
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gloryboy

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Oh ok I was using this
http://tooserious.net/forum/player_calc.php?&id=4896&pcid=46552&name=Matt Guelfi

Not sure how accurate it is but if you say he's going up to 310k that would suit me just fine! haha

I've double checked my formulas and calculations, and too-serious price projections seem way out.

I've compared the price projection results of too-serious, SuperCoach Gold and my spreadsheet (@bricemitchell, and based on a score of 68 in R14, these are the price projections predicted
Too serious $13k
SuperCoach Gold $18.1k
@bricemitchell $18.144k

Pretty confident mine are correct based on alignment with SuperCoach gold.
 

Toadvine

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Yeah nice thanks mate. Tooserious must be using an old magic number or something. As I said though I'm glad it under estimated rather than over because you've just given me some good news!
 

gloryboy

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gloryboy

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Yeah nice thanks mate. Tooserious must be using an old magic number or something. As I said though I'm glad it under estimated rather than over because you've just given me some good news!
Always good to get good news for a change!
 
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moosey

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I've double checked my formulas and calculations, and too-serious price projections seem way out.

I've compared the price projection results of too-serious, SuperCoach Gold and my spreadsheet (@bricemitchell, and based on a score of 68 in R14, these are the price projections predicted
Too serious $13k
SuperCoach Gold $18.1k
@bricemitchell $18.144k

Pretty confident mine are correct based on alignment with SuperCoach gold.

Yes confirming TooSerious calcs are never correct and just good for a guide only.
 
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moosey

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To be precise, I predict/project he will rise to $309.601k based on his score of 63 in R14.

Let's review this post-round, noting that the formula changes slightly every week, so it can never be 100% accurate.

Whats your current MN at?
 

Rupert

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@Toadvine , @gloryboy
Nice to have you guys working these projections. I try to do so using the SC Gold as a guide and that's not too bad. But I'm just an occasional dabbler.
fwiw my prediction for Guelfi is $309,500.