Really like the Gray pick. Reckon he's got 115+ potential and he has the round 14 bye (which seems like the round lightest on premiums).
Tend to agree with @Hondo in that Duncan and Smith are the most skeptical picks. What do you think Duncan can average? Danger will be taking his 120 most weeks, and while the cats should get more of the pie this season he might take too many for Duncan to become a genuine midfield premium. You'd think players like Caddy and Motlop should also improve their averages. Stevie has left, but Bartel also missed a chunk of the season and I think he should manage a 95 odd average as well. Having said all that he had shown improvement every season up until his injury, so if you think he can manage to be a premium then who are we to talk you out of it!
At his price you'd probably also want Smith to become a keeper. I don't think he'll play pure ruck and he's never really shown much ability as a forward so I think he'll be a 90-95 averaging player at best. Not sure where I'd get the money to upgrade him. Perhaps Shaw down to a lesser premium, Currie to a cheaper rookie and Smith up to a gun.