As annoying as it would be as I really want Steele to perform, at least can use a Goldy/Fyfe/Ablett loophole into Danger... Gotta look at the positives here
Midfield 2016
- Thread starter Fbdonkey
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As annoying as it would be as I really want Steele to perform, at least can use a Goldy/Fyfe/Ablett loophole into Danger... Gotta look at the positives here
Hmmmmm looking at the GWS extended bench, you'd have to say that Tomlinson and Kelly are most likely to get a gig.. then probably Buntine for some depth in defence..
Patton probably misses, and Wilson is keeping Zac out - so perhaps 1 of Steele/Greene misses?
Coniglio and Hoskin-Elliott are big INs from the POV of Steele and Greene, with those 2 going straight onto the field it actually wouldn't surprise me if BOTH Steele and Greene miss - though surely one keeps his spot at least?
If the listing of emergencies is anything to go by then both Steele and Greene stay in. Note the listing is not by player's number, either.
MUCH LATER: What do I know. Steele is an emergency.
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I don't mind Marc Murphy as a bargain pick up in a few weeks... Will go down 57k to 474k this week and Breakeven will be massive for the next 2 weeks
Should have 179 Breakeven next week if my math is correct (give or take 5-10) if he scores 110 that takes him down to 442k and a breakeven of 115ish
Only played 53% of the game, and most of that during the part of the game where Carlton were getting pumped.... [This is the first time I've tried to calculate breakevens, lets see how I go tomorrow night when his BE is released... hopefully it's close to 179]
Should have 179 Breakeven next week if my math is correct (give or take 5-10) if he scores 110 that takes him down to 442k and a breakeven of 115ish
Only played 53% of the game, and most of that during the part of the game where Carlton were getting pumped.... [This is the first time I've tried to calculate breakevens, lets see how I go tomorrow night when his BE is released... hopefully it's close to 179]
I think we're getting a bit Jacobs obsessed. Who else is running a Crowley type tagger this year, bar Norf? Who did Jacobs have today? Fyfe and Neale certainly scored ok (didn't watch the game).
I think Murph could be a sneaky good pick up if he gets really cheap. I like the way the Blues are playing under Bolton.
I think Murph could be a sneaky good pick up if he gets really cheap. I like the way the Blues are playing under Bolton.
Like your thinking mate, he averaged 113.6 after Malthouse got sacked last year. 123 in Round 1. Not sure what happened against GC. If he can get a 110+ average, must have at around 430k. Really like these type of picks. I remember NDS in 2011 was a great pick up for me after he bottom out after a tagged game.
Fair points but come round 9 Jacobs may not even be in the side, he wasn't deemed best 22 in round 1... Murphy also scored 117 with Jacobs tagging him in round 18 last year, I think we're worrying about Jacobs more than we need to just because he stumped Rich, doesn't take much to stop Rich completely as we all know+Rich had hammy tightness that game
Yep. And Murphy has shown he has the potential to beat tags. Would North even bother playing a tagger against the Blues?
Could argue the same against Bris, but arguably Jacobs had a lot to prove verse Bris as he was a late in.
True Murphy can beat the tag, if he turns up. Turned up R1 and hasnt been seen much since
Admittedly, his R2, R3 games were pretty below par and he was only on 35 from a half against the dogs. Syd, GC (away) & Dogs are pretty tough opposition, and I think the Blues draw opens up pretty soon so that could benefit his scoring. Currently averaging 77, if he were to finish on a 105 season average, he'd need to average 111 from here. His 103 & 106 seasons in the past 2 years included injury affected games. At $430k ish, definite value pick in 2 weeks.
Its hard to say that the draw opens up for them when they are on the bottom of the ladder. Freo are out for blood and the Dons and Pies wont take a backward step against the blues. I would expect him to be worked over especially by the pies
I think the biggest issue with murph is his role - watching Carlton games it doesn't seem like he's been in many centre bounce setups and his season heatmap thus far shows it.
Comparing that to last season:
I'm not sure exactly why he's not attending as many centre bounces, but if his current role continues I don't think he'll average enough to be a keeper. No doubt he'll be value, but I don't want to be stuck with a bloke averaging 100 odd when there's plenty of 110+ options floating around in the midfield. Unless there's plans to eventually get him to the pine as cover (seems way too early to be doing that) then I'd pass on him unless we see a change in role.
Comparing that to last season:
I'm not sure exactly why he's not attending as many centre bounces, but if his current role continues I don't think he'll average enough to be a keeper. No doubt he'll be value, but I don't want to be stuck with a bloke averaging 100 odd when there's plenty of 110+ options floating around in the midfield. Unless there's plans to eventually get him to the pine as cover (seems way too early to be doing that) then I'd pass on him unless we see a change in role.
Thanks for the heatmaps mate... Very relevant, will probably stay away
Easy enough to see how he scores over the next 2 weeks as he drops and look at heatmaps from them, if he goes in the middle significantly more then he'll come back into question
Great discussion on Murphy. I hadn't considered a role change but that is concerning if he's not attending as many center bounces. Thanks for the heatmaps. Will keep a close eye on him over the next two weeks.
The difference between Gray and Murphy might be like $150k in 2 weeks. The question would be can you make up that 5-10ppg less murphy would score with the extra $150k (assuming Murphy 105 and Gray 115)? Might result in an earlier upgrade which could result in more points earlier.
My point on the draw was mainly in regards to points each side gives up. Teams like Pies and Dons give up more points to opposition than Syd/WB so it would provide a better chance for Murphy to score 110+ even if Blues lose.
The difference between Gray and Murphy might be like $150k in 2 weeks. The question would be can you make up that 5-10ppg less murphy would score with the extra $150k (assuming Murphy 105 and Gray 115)? Might result in an earlier upgrade which could result in more points earlier.
My point on the draw was mainly in regards to points each side gives up. Teams like Pies and Dons give up more points to opposition than Syd/WB so it would provide a better chance for Murphy to score 110+ even if Blues lose.
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Giving up points is interesting. Here's the rankings for average SC score so far this season. Because every game is 3300 the lowest teams are the teams to give up the most SC points.
Rank Team SC
1 Western Bulldogs 1877
2 North Melbourne 1750.5
3 Sydney 1740.2
4 GWS 1737.8
5 Gold Coast 1714.8
6 Adelaide 1696.8
7 West Coast 1694.5
8 Geelong 1691.5
9 Hawthorn 1673.2
10 St Kilda 1643.2
11 Essendon 1631.2
12 Richmond 1627.2
13 Melbourne 1594.2
14 Port Adelaide 1563.8
15 Carlton 1547.2
16 Brisbane 1524.2
17 Collingwood 1504
18 Fremantle 1487.8
The Bombers are sitting mid-table so preseason expectations of them giving up big scores has not been the case at all, at the moment they're almost 50/50 point-sharing with the opposition.
Surprisingly the Dockers have given up the most points. SC tells a lot about how well the team is going (the top 9 here is the same top 9 on the ladder). Even on the weekend they seemed competitive but the SC scores were very lopsided. Makes me think there's more work to be done for the Dockers than it seems. Makes me almost want to tip the Blues this weekend...
