James Kelly HOLD or TRADE

[bxe100]

I currently have James Kelly (AVG=77) from Geelong who is now out for 4-6 weeks do I TRADE OR HOLD?
If TRADE is the answer then given the cash I have (not much) who do I pick from the following:
Kade Simpson (avg=83), Michael Johnson(avg=82), Shaun Burgoyne(avg=81), Michael Hibberd(avg=73), Jasper Pittard(99)

My other option is wait until next week and down grade him to Daniel McKenzie.

 

[writeoff]

I would trade Kelly out.
As for your trade in options:
Simpson $448.4 has a BE of 123 so I would wait on him to drop further in price and to (hopefully) show us he can return to premium scoring.
MJ $449.8 BE 105 has at least been more consistent than Simpson.
Burgoyne $436.9 BE 120 scores generally go up and down in correlation to the time he spends in the midfield. For the next 2 weeks both Hodge & Lewis will be missing so I would expect SB to spend more time in the mids and score more. That may change in 4 weeks time when Hodge & Lewis are both back in the team.
Hibberd $437.7 BE 121 started the season slowly but has shown that he can maintain a 90+ average. He is about 5 years younger than the players listed above so is less likely to be rested as well.
Pittard $451.4 BE 65 is the riskiest selection with no premium scoring history. He does take the game on and occasionally is prone to brain fades. Port's draw really opens up now after a tough start.

If I had to rank them it would be Burgoyne, Hibberd, Pittard (only due to lack of premium scoring history), MJ & Simpson.

 

[kinggo]

Yeah Trade. I'd personally go Hibberd, Pittard, Simpson (would be higher if he had bottomed out in price) then toss a coin for Burgoyne or Johnson.

 

[Mick]

Think you have to trade him and agree with Kinggo that Hibberd would be the pick although waiting another week would be even better value. I like Pittard as an option also.

 

[Shanenma]

Haven't looked into the length of injury as I don't have him... but my instinct response is keep as assuming Oxley/McIntosh have been your rotating bench and there are no obvious back INs this week (personally not fully sold on McDonald/Houli/Simpson or all the guys you mention)...

Then again... I have done 0 research here... yeh, this is another useless post now that I have finished typing... i'm going to click 'post reply' anyway sorry...

 

[TwentyThree]

I feel a bit the same. Rooks are doing an ok (sometimes great) job and premo defs are under performing. I'm putting time and money in elsewhere until I get a better hold on who the 'real' def premos are.

 

[Dino]

I have this issue to deal with also. I was thinking along the same, holding. I am so far off overall it's not funny and although want to finish as high as possible, my main focus is my money league.

At the start of the week I was adamant on trading Newnes and holding Kelly but after podcast my focus has shifted. The concern for me is the length of time Kelly will be out. If it was 3 you would most likely hold, but the possibility of him being out for longer is too much.

 

[writeoff]

When deciding on who to replace Kelly with have a look at your team's set up for byes.
Burgoyne & Simpson have the r11 bye.
Hibberd and MJ have the r12 bye.
Pitterd has the r13 bye.

This may be the thing that separates one player from another.

 

[writeoff]

Another option is to wait for premiums with high BE who should drop in price in the coming weeks:
Defenders:
Brodie Smith $455k BE 168
Nick Malceski $440k BE 148
Andrew Walker $431k BE 134
Kade Simpson $448k BE 121
Michael Hibberd $437k BE 120
Shaun Burgoyne $436k BE 119

 

[writeoff]

The last factor you may consider is how many teams already have these players and if your team could benefit from a POD?
Burgoyne is in 27,778 teams.
Simpson is in 23,253 teams.
Hibberd is in 20,118 teams.
Pitterd is in 9,278 teams.
MJ is in 6,601 teams.

Can you afford T McDonald $475 because that is who I would pick?
McGovern at $461.9 is another option.

 

[Prospector]

No love for Docherty, writeoff?

 

[writeoff]

No love for Docherty, writeoff?

I don't know much about Docherty but he is playing for a (probable) bottom 4 team and doesn't have a premium scoring history.
McDonald also falls into this category but he has shown 8 weeks of consistent scores (including the 3 NAB games) and it seems like CD have adjusted the scoring so that KPD can score better this year.
McGovern scored well last year (average 82) and scored 100+ in 3/13 games (he was subbed twice so really 3/11) including a 146 against GCS so he has shown a high ceiling.

I don't hate the Docherty pick and wouldn't say don't pick him. I just prefer others - McDonald especially.

 

[Prospector]

... I don't hate the Docherty pick and wouldn't say don't pick him. I just prefer others - McDonald especially.

Interesting to note that Docherty had an average of 94 ppg ToG corrected in the PS, and is now averaging 94. Had a 147 in R1, so can go big also.

Has moved from low 50s in 2013 to high 70s in 2014 - to mid 90s this year ... age 21.

 

[writeoff]

Interesting to note that Docherty had an average of 94 ppg ToG corrected in the PS, and is now averaging 94. Had a 147 in R1, so can go big also.

Has moved from low 50s in 2013 to high 70s in 2014 - to mid 90s this year ... age 21.

This is great progression and what we look for in our SC players. Didn't realise he had that.
As I stated I don't know enough about Docherty to give a considered opinion.

 

[Prospector]

Love to see Bandit's opinion ...

juddernaut, what do you reckon?

 

[alman]

I'v got Kelly. Going to trade, 4-6 is too long and very uncertain (given the type of injury).

Going McDonald as have some cash in bank and if he continues his scoring then under $500k is a steal. Certainly risk though being KPP and no relevant sc history.

If I didn't have any cash then I'd hold a week and get Smith next week when he bottoms out.

 

[jibba]

I've got Kelly too, but I've decided to trade him to McKenzie and use funds to grab a midfielder next week.

 

[Cool9]

Kelly's holding, I think. Gently.

 

[Prospector]

Kelly's holding, I think. Gently.

Holding at together very gently, I'd expect! As was said already, that was a hard ball get!

 

[thejuddernaut]

Love to see Bandit's opinion ...

juddernaut, what do you reckon?

Very keen on him. doesn't pick up points like Simpson did over last few years with easy possessions and running off. actually intercept marks and reads ball well which if you look at the kpd is how they are scoring. I have him in DT as was unsure coming into season but looking at others prior to bye then possibly him for one of my r12 bye rookies after r 11.
Hurts watching our most consistent performance in Def comes from a third year player who's p season was his first full one, best mid played 5 games prior to this year cripps and best forward unknown as haven't seen the ball In there.
Doc is a go in my opinion after r 11 maybe as a D5/6?