Defenders

[doddy2731]

With Doc out can Simo keep age at bay another season?
Will Zac Williams do what we know he can?

 

[Bombers56]

With Doc out can Simo keep age at bay another season?
Will Zac Williams do what we know he can?

I am hopefully that they can.

 

[Tevez17]

Hard to not go in with Williams, I really like Milera from the Crows, fining room for all the Defs & Fwds i want to play is tough.

 

[J-Dog]

Hard to not go in with Williams, I really like Milera from the Crows, fining room for all the Defs & Fwds i want to play is tough.

I’m also a Milera fan reckon he’s in for a breakout year. Not quite sure I’ll end up starting him but rate the pick

 

[doddy2731]

Ryan was one of my first picked and remains at D3.

 

[k-red17]

Nick Newman is the find for me in the backline this season. Will shoulder the Docherty role and has previous awesome scoring to back it up. Laird and Lloyd are locks for mine also.

Adam Kennedy is an interesting one I'm considering also. Only played the last 7 games of last season coming back from injury and was good for 87.7 avg @ 428k could be one that could creep to a 100 avg this season if he stays fit and healthy.

 

[Haychh]

Nick Newman is the find for me in the backline this season. Will shoulder the Docherty role and has previous awesome scoring to back it up. Laird and Lloyd are locks for mine also.

I'm not sure his scoring is as awesome as people think. He has tonned up 4 times out of 31 games. His average dropped by 10 from 2017-2018 and he's 26 so I'm not sure where the improvement is going to come from. At his price you'd have to see him as a keeper. It's a big no from me

 

[J-Dog]

I'm not sure his scoring is as awesome as people think. He has tonned up 4 times out of 31 games. His average dropped by 10 from 2017-2018 and he's 26 so I'm not sure where the improvement is going to come from. At his price you'd have to see him as a keeper. It's a big no from me

How much of that can be attributed to playing out of position though? I think the hope is that a defined role in a team that has a clear opening due to injury will spike his numbers. Recent history suggests that Carlton’s game style is very lucrative for half back types as well

 

[k-red17]

How much of that can be attributed to playing out of position though? I think the hope is that a defined role in a team that has a clear opening due to injury will spike his numbers. Recent history suggests that Carlton’s game style is very lucrative for half back types as well

Spot on mate. A massive role has opened up for him, alot of high priced defenders this season means we have to look for a bargain or two and this guy could be the pick of the lot.

28 games:
100's - 4
90's - 4
80's - 8

New club, big chance to prove himself. I'm very tempted to lock him in.

 

[Haychh]

How much of that can be attributed to playing out of position though? I think the hope is that a defined role in a team that has a clear opening due to injury will spike his numbers. Recent history suggests that Carlton’s game style is very lucrative for half back types as well

Fair call on possibly playing out of position but there I still feel like its a fairly risky selection to pick a 26yr old who last year averaged 72.

Yes it's a lucrative position for Kade Simpson and Docherty not for many others though.

In 2017 Docherty averaged 114 and Simpson averaged 93.
In 2018 Simpson moved into Docherty's role and averaged 105 After that they had a few stinkers in that position:
Mullett 13 games @ 60
Byrne 7 games @ 63
O'Shea 11 games @ 37

With Simpson still in the side I think the absolute best you could hope for is Newman to be Simpson of 2016 and average 93 (and I think this is being very generous). Going on 2018 averages that would be good enough to be the 11th ranked defender.

@ $394k he 100% has to be a keeper and he simply doesn't have that capacity.

If you didn't have him you'd be better off paying $13k for Zac Williams or if you wanted to take a risk at that price point you'd be better off having a look at a potential breakout candidate such as:
Weller @ $403k
Hardwick @ $403k
McGrath @ $384k (I'm trying to talk my bias out of this one, he's looking midfield beastish, bit worried about opportunity in there though)

 

[J-Dog]

Fair call on possibly playing out of position but there I still feel like its a fairly risky selection to pick a 26yr old who last year averaged 72.

Yes it's a lucrative position for Kade Simpson and Docherty not for many others though.

In 2017 Docherty averaged 114 and Simpson averaged 93.
In 2018 Simpson moved into Docherty's role and averaged 105 After that they had a few stinkers in that position:
Mullett 13 games @ 60
Byrne 7 games @ 63
O'Shea 11 games @ 37

With Simpson still in the side I think the absolute best you could hope for is Newman to be Simpson of 2016 and average 93 (and I think this is being very generous). Going on 2018 averages that would be good enough to be the 11th ranked defender.

@ $394k he 100% has to be a keeper and he simply doesn't have that capacity.

If you didn't have him you'd be better off paying $13k for Zac Williams or if you wanted to take a risk at that price point you'd be better off having a look at a potential breakout candidate such as:
Weller @ $403k
Hardwick @ $403k
McGrath @ $384k (I'm trying to talk my bias out of this one, he's looking midfield beastish, bit worried about opportunity in there though)

All good points. Now you mention it I do remember some similar discussion about Mullett last year and he obviously didn't do anything special. Daisy also spent a bit of time off half back and had somewhat of a resurgence to average 85. There’s definitely risk attached to Newman and I agree he’d need to be a keeper, you’d need a minimum 95 average for him to work out. Will be tracking his JLT closely

 

[Tevez17]

@Haychh think you're spot on here, I think Newman in defined role off half back pushing up to the wing, using his good, albeit not long left foot will definitely be an asset for Carlton but I don't think it's going to turn into anything over a 90ave in SC, worth a punt in a draft league for sure though.

I've been wondering with the starting postilions whether we might see more use of a defensive forward, or at least defenders being a little more occupied with defending.

I don't have Lloyd or Laird currently, have opted for Whitfield & Sicily.

 

[RichardC89]

@HaychhI don't have Lloyd or Laird currently, have opted for Whitfield & Sicily.

I currently have all four haha

 

[keffa]

McGrath @ $384k (I'm trying to talk my bias out of this one, he's looking midfield beastish, bit worried about opportunity in there though)

I don't think we'll have any trouble finding a spot on the wing for McGrath..... I think that's the position he'll primarily be used in, rather than starting in the square (although I wouldn't be surprised if he lined up there a few times a match too). I imagine the Bombers see him graduating to all-out-midfield-gun in 2 or 3 seasons time, when his body fully matures. So far he's had 2 seasons in defence, now I reckon he gets 2 seasons on a wing, and then in his 5th season, with 80 games under his belt, he becomes a midfield beast who averages 115 SC PPG. Well that's my dream anyway

He's quite a tricky one for this season..... as a supporter, I'm tempted to pass, and if he kills it SC-wise, well that's all well and good, I won't mind 'missing' him as a SC starter because I'll be stoked just to see him do well. I kinda don't wanna jinx him! One thing is for certain though - he will improve on last years average. It's simply a question of 'how much'. He'd have to hit at least low 90s to be a success..... it's quite a leap.

 

[Drumpf]

I’m also a Milera fan reckon he’s in for a breakout year. Not quite sure I’ll end up starting him but rate the pick

Don’t really get the Milleara loving, J-D. Care to explain?

 

[JDavey]

My thoughts on Newman (previously posted on BF):

Newmans situation

• Mature age, hitting prime (~26 Y.O)
• Third pre-season
• No one filled the Docherty role last season
• Simpson turns 35 this year - regression is due
• Carlton had football titans Kerridge, Thomas, Curnow, Graham putting out 30+ touches (because there is no one else outside Simpson, Cripps and Murphy)
• Averaged 83 in 2017, Averaged 72 in 2018 which increased to 80 in his block of games (R17 -> R23)

Sydney has a history of trading out younger underutilized players which generally produce good upticks in the following year

• 2018 - Hanners, Newman, Rohan
• 2017 - N/A
• 2016 - Tom Mitchell +15 avg (104 -> 119), Toby Nankervis +14 avg (75 -> 89)
• 2015 - Lewis Jetta -24 avg (83 -> 59) Craig Bird +10 avg (70 -> 80)
• 2014 - Nick Malceski -24 avg (105 -> 71) Shane Biggs +23 avg (49 -> 72)
• 2013 - Shane Mumford +21 avg (92 -> 113) Jesse White -5 avg (67 -> 62) +18 avg Andrejs Everitt (63 -> 81)

So those that went down in average were senior players that were playing full seasons (Malceski & Jetta)
Almost all other younger players leaving for Sydney see a double digit average increase.

Why did Carlton recruit him?
What the Blues drafted him for: The positives are three-fold for Carlton’s newest recruit: efficiency, versatility and grit. His left foot across half-back is his main asset, hitting targets and launching his side in defence. He is equally adept in the back-line and along the wing, where he spent a fair portion of his time in 2017. Generally, his tackles stay stuck: Newman ranked elite in 2017 with a tackle efficiency rate of 78 percent.

So whats the story for a 15-20 ppg upside from the 80 average he finished 2018 with?

1. There is a history of Swans leaving to other clubs for opportunity increasing their averages by 15+
2. There is a lot of opportunity to go around at Carlton (across halfback and in the midfield)
3. Newman's age/pre-season is in the right range
4. Ball magnet at NEAFL level (Hi Tom Mitchell!)
5. Good user of the ball, tackles well

His he a slam dunk? No
Is he a better choice then Williams? No
Should he be considered? Absolutely

 

[Lowrider]

Don’t really get the Milleara loving, J-D. Care to explain?

Coming into his 4th season, prime break out time. Understand he's had a great preseason after some injury issues in previous years.

Played 4 games off half-back scattered through the early season for 79, 73, 116, 78, otherwise was on a wing or HFF. Moved back to half-back more for the last 6 games and posted 83, 112, 91, 82, 106, 102 - an average of 96 over this patch. That's the role he's expected to play more consistently this year. Also looks likely to share kick-in duties with Brodie Smith.

How it works with Smith, Laird and Milera remains to be seen. They 3 of them did play 2 games together last year with Milera scoring 91 and 82 so he was not heavily affected. Smith scored 45 and 129. Milera is certainly under consideration for me, although not in the team currently.

Of note, Laird posted his 2 worst scores for the year in those 2 games - a 76 and an 84. That's why I'm not going anywhere near starting Laird this year for the first time in many years. Combination of this plus he doesn't take many kick-ins means he's a definite no for my starting squad. I think he'll drop back down to around 100 and can even see him not being a top 6 defender this year.

 

[Tevez17]

Coming into his 4th season, prime break out time. Understand he's had a great preseason after some injury issues in previous years.

Played 4 games off half-back scattered through the early season for 79, 73, 116, 78, otherwise was on a wing or HFF. Moved back to half-back more for the last 6 games and posted 83, 112, 91, 82, 106, 102 - an average of 96 over this patch. That's the role he's expected to play more consistently this year. Also looks likely to share kick-in duties with Brodie Smith.

How it works with Smith, Laird and Milera remains to be seen. They 3 of them did play 2 games together last year with Milera scoring 91 and 82 so he was not heavily affected. Smith scored 45 and 129. Milera is certainly under consideration for me, although not in the team currently.

Of note, Laird posted his 2 worst scores for the year in those 2 games - a 76 and an 84. That's why I'm not going anywhere near starting Laird this year for the first time in many years. Combination of this plus he doesn't take many kick-ins means he's a definite no for my starting squad. I think he'll drop back down to around 100 and can even see him not being a top 6 defender this year.

Summed up pretty well, might sound stupid but he really passes the eye test, i watched almost all of his games in that run as he was in my draft team & he just looked a class above, poise, toughness, tackling quality & efficiency, it's a bit of a weird comparison but he reminded me a lot of Corey Enright,.

 

[Tevez17]

Don’t really get the Milleara loving, J-D. Care to explain?

This is from Footy Profit:

Milera has increased his fantasy average by at least 10 points in each of the past three seasons, and a repeat of that effort will have him squarely in the ranks of the top 30 defenders. He has poise, class and is careful with ball in hand - his disposal efficiency over his last 500 touches has been upwards of 78%, which is pushing elite territory. He finished 2018 with an average of 89 fantasy points over his last 7 games (95 in SC),

 

[Tevez17]

I'm getting sucked into Newman, Smith & Roberton