So much depemds upon which rookies get chosen.
I am currently running:
Def:1-1-6
Mid: 5-0-6
Ruck: 2-0-1
Fwd: 1-3-4
My mid-pricers include several I'm hoping will be keepers: Docherty, Ceglar, Brayshaw (Freo) and Smith.
My "rookies" include any player $270,00 or less. Most are genuine, no-games rookies but I also have Cummings, Noble and possibly Roberton.
I'm into my research really late this year because work has been absolutely crazy, but I couldn't agree more with you on rookies. I have
never done midprice madness but I just don't see the level of top scoring in the back and forward lines to keep me away from it this year. I definitely don't like my team, but rookies are doing my head in and right now I'm toying with:
Backs: 0-3-5 (Doch, Houston, and....Cerra probably)
Mids: 4-1-4 (Walsh)
Rucks: 2-0-1
Fwds: 0-5-3 (Ceglar, Petracca, Brayshaw, Steven, Smith)
The only basement-priced rookie I have on field is Marlion Pickett. The only BACKs and FWDs I really want by the end of the year are Lloyd, Whitfield and Dusty. I see neither value nor captaincy potential in all 3 of those selections so I will upgrade to them (in a perfect-world-that-will-never-happen the F7 in my finalized team is a R/F swing Ceglar or the worst midpricer of the bunch if Ceglar smashes it). Between my mids and rucks I have 6 captaincy options because it will be absolutely crucial to nail that this year (I just cannot go past Gawn for that reason alone but I need legit ruck cover bc he's underdone).
I am literally going into this season assuming 2-3 midpricers don't quite come off as keepers but the top talent in the FWD and BACK lines won't hurt me enough for it to matter before I can correct. I just think the bottom rookies, even if they do get named, are mostly all looking like they're going to score 50 or worse. The thinking is that a Laird and Brander on field score maybe 150avg the first 6-7 weeks of the season between them (maybe 160 best case, 130-140 worst case). A Cerra/Lachie Ash (if named) knock out a 150avg pretty easily and I save like $125k...plus Brander gets to stay on bench and make cash for me whereas who knows what happens to the D7/D8 rookies if you're not paying up.
Similarly, and I feel much more strongly about this in the FWD line, I don't think a Lachie Whitfield and a Max King can come too close to a Brayshaw and a Smith. Basically, Brayshaw and Smith only have to average around 75-80 each to breakeven in the early rounds there. If I upgrade bench rookies to Whitfield and Martin and a midpricer or two keeps scoring 80 what other forwards are really going to hurt me late season if I start faster on points? Maybe a Walters but I'm assuming I trade a couple midpricers up around the end of the byes or shortly thereafter. I just need to not blow trades after weeks 1, 3, and 4.
Sorry for the long post but I think the crux of my argument is that I don't see two things that the traditional guns and rookies strategy needs to have happen to work optimally:
- Scoring separation from who I project at D3-D6 and F3-F6 from the rest of the mid-price pack behind them.
- Half decent scoring from basement-priced rookies that would have to be on field.
- I want nothing to do with having King, Taylor, Rankine, Starcevich, Brander, Budarick, BZT, etc. on field (let alone who knows if all of them get named and who we're going to pick if they're not)
I am fully aware this could totally blow up in my face but I have observed that a straight guns and rookies strategy will basically give you a 1K-5K ranking at the end of the year, but the winners pick the expensive rookies (and a midpricer or 2) to get a points lead in the beginning weeks of the year and then hang on. I am betting that effect is amplified with the dearth of top-end scoring down back and forward.
Sorry for the long post but I'm a bit bored over in The States what with everything being shut down. Cheers and good luck this year!
