2020 Begins
- Thread starter doddy2731
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I reckon there's lots to like.... this is his 5th year in the system. He'll play on the ball but can be selected as a forward. He was a high (5) draft pick (Clayton Oliver went at 4). Price is affected by a 26 in round 20 last year (was at that game but can't remember what happened to him).
He's been improving by 4-5 ppg every year.... if he continued that pattern, that would only have him at around 90ppg, which isn't quite enough. He had 6 hundreds last year and a couple in the 90s, and it did feel that his consistency was improving.
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Parish averaged 89 last season excluding that 26. Should push into the mid 90s you would hope. I’m keen on him. What specific mid role do you think he plays?
Parish is another one I'm unsure about.
According to the Prospectus he "has recorded almost identical numbers in every season."
According to my research his TOG has been much the same: relatively low, and relatively consistent, across every season - around the high 70% range.
Last year in 20 games: 3 games 80-84%; 2 games high 60% range; 14 games in the 70% range. [I'm ignoring his one injury-affected game.]
His first year 2016 in 20 games: 5 games in the 80% range with a high of 87%; 3 games high 60% range; 12 games in the 70% range.
Can/will his TOG can be lifted to above 80%?
Other Essendon "mids" last year: Heppell - 82.8%; Zaharakis - 81.9%; Merrett - 77.1%; Shiel - 78.5%; McGrath - 77.7%; Langford - 76.7%
In comparison, here are some other fwd/mids from last year: Ablett - 87.9%; T Kelly - 84.6%; Dusty - 83.4%; Heeney - 82.6%; Gresham - 81.6%; Worpel - 79.6%.
On the plus side is that, even with consistent stat.s and TOG across his career, Parish has improved his SC numbers by 4-5 points every year - as @keffa has pointed out.
Why? And can he do it again?
According to the Prospectus he "has recorded almost identical numbers in every season."
According to my research his TOG has been much the same: relatively low, and relatively consistent, across every season - around the high 70% range.
Last year in 20 games: 3 games 80-84%; 2 games high 60% range; 14 games in the 70% range. [I'm ignoring his one injury-affected game.]
His first year 2016 in 20 games: 5 games in the 80% range with a high of 87%; 3 games high 60% range; 12 games in the 70% range.
Can/will his TOG can be lifted to above 80%?
Other Essendon "mids" last year: Heppell - 82.8%; Zaharakis - 81.9%; Merrett - 77.1%; Shiel - 78.5%; McGrath - 77.7%; Langford - 76.7%
In comparison, here are some other fwd/mids from last year: Ablett - 87.9%; T Kelly - 84.6%; Dusty - 83.4%; Heeney - 82.6%; Gresham - 81.6%; Worpel - 79.6%.
On the plus side is that, even with consistent stat.s and TOG across his career, Parish has improved his SC numbers by 4-5 points every year - as @keffa has pointed out.
Why? And can he do it again?
@Happyracoon would argue that his improvement last year was better than it looked because of the injury affected game (26), so that's worth keeping in mind. Have to remember as well that improvement isn't linear (think I have the correct term) and we can sometimes see spikes (which I suppose the fantasy community calls a break out). Going just by the eye test, Parish improved a lot last year. I wonder what history say about 5th year players? I don't doubt his class by the way, just his size
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Gawn looking like playing a couple of pre-season games now. You beauty
Agree with a lot of what you posted.
However, the Suns were vastly depleted toward the end of the year. We were giving lots of different guys a round through centre square late to. see what they. could do. ie Lemmens, in particular. Not sure we can take much stock into the last 5-6 rounds.
Brodie - injured from
Ainsworth - missing Rounds 11-19
Bowes - missing Rd 12-19
Brodie - missing 19-23
Powell - Missing 17-23
I'd say the main centre square rotation will be between Swallow, Bowes, Greenwood, Fiorini, Miller, Rowell, Weller
Guys who are fringe 22 or will step in occasionally from other positions - Macpherson, Anderson, Miles, Rankine, Ainsworth, Brodie, Lemmens,
Fair bit to go around, particularly with a number of those players not overly versatile.
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Sun's interest me greatly this year. I think in 2019 they were getting slaughtered when the opposition got the ball on the outside. So they tried to keep it in tight and contested for as long as possible. Hence why their UP were terrible but their CP were so good. I'm sure it affected their SC scores as well.
Would expect the inclusions and another preseason into the young players will change that in 2020. But, it's not Greenwood I'm watching so much.
Bowes is a real talent. He averaged 106 over the first month with a low score of 98. Over 80% TOG every game too. After that his scoring dropped as the Sun's struggled and so did his TOG. A competitive Sun's might see him pushing 100+ at just $411k. Shame he's mid-only and therefore nearly impossible to pick.
Weller on the other hand, is DEF eligible. Avg of 88.6 and scored 90+ in 10/17 games. Reckon he's well positioned to add another 5-10 points to his average and push into the top 10 defenders this year.
I've tried to prove to myself that not starting Grundy and Gawn makes sense. Looking at last years numbers, it simply didn't (even with hindsight it was pretty much breakeven).
They didn't drop in value much at any point before the byes despite some sub par scores (Grundy -$53k Rd 8, Gawn -$52k Rd 5) as these were quickly offset by 130+ scores, and from memory Mumford was the ruck that increased most during the first half of the season, but he didn't continue his good start to the season and limped into the byes which hurt me (plus missed the first couple of weeks so needed a R3 or Fwd DPP to cover). ROB only played after the injury to Sauce, so isn't relevant to this scenario. The only thing that helped me not starting Gawn was his injury impacted 46 point game a week after his bye and missing the following game, but he scored so well on return the drop in price wasn't that much all things considered and certainly wasn't worth the wait.
Unless you were able to trade Mummy into Gawn or Grundy immediately after Rd 9, you would've made a $170k or $180k net gain, but needed $210 or $225k cash on a rookie cull + spare bank to do it in 2 trades. So it was possible, but at the time it made more sense to wait till the bye round in which this net gain turned into just under $100k for Grundy and for Gawn just $50k, a disaster.
English was similar, but started off slow, if you had him and kept the faith, he got to $100k on his bye, so similar result to Mummy. If you upgraded at/after his bye, the extra value is offset by the increases Grundy/Gawn had at the same time.
I'm really questioning if I can afford to not start both now. Realistically you need your starting ruck to increase $100k at a minimum to make it work (which not many rucks did at any point of the season). It's a risk I can see myself taking, but I'll need to be confident I can get $150k+ out of a starting ruck/s to do it, and hope that Grundy/Gawn have had an average game or 2 around this time. There is the potential for a $250k+ net gain, but it didn't happen last year.
They didn't drop in value much at any point before the byes despite some sub par scores (Grundy -$53k Rd 8, Gawn -$52k Rd 5) as these were quickly offset by 130+ scores, and from memory Mumford was the ruck that increased most during the first half of the season, but he didn't continue his good start to the season and limped into the byes which hurt me (plus missed the first couple of weeks so needed a R3 or Fwd DPP to cover). ROB only played after the injury to Sauce, so isn't relevant to this scenario. The only thing that helped me not starting Gawn was his injury impacted 46 point game a week after his bye and missing the following game, but he scored so well on return the drop in price wasn't that much all things considered and certainly wasn't worth the wait.
Unless you were able to trade Mummy into Gawn or Grundy immediately after Rd 9, you would've made a $170k or $180k net gain, but needed $210 or $225k cash on a rookie cull + spare bank to do it in 2 trades. So it was possible, but at the time it made more sense to wait till the bye round in which this net gain turned into just under $100k for Grundy and for Gawn just $50k, a disaster.
English was similar, but started off slow, if you had him and kept the faith, he got to $100k on his bye, so similar result to Mummy. If you upgraded at/after his bye, the extra value is offset by the increases Grundy/Gawn had at the same time.
I'm really questioning if I can afford to not start both now. Realistically you need your starting ruck to increase $100k at a minimum to make it work (which not many rucks did at any point of the season). It's a risk I can see myself taking, but I'll need to be confident I can get $150k+ out of a starting ruck/s to do it, and hope that Grundy/Gawn have had an average game or 2 around this time. There is the potential for a $250k+ net gain, but it didn't happen last year.
On your first point, yes that has clearly been the game plan for the past 2 years, since Witts and Dew got there. I think we'll see some expansion this year but probably still remain quite conservative.
Bowes, 100%, I'm a massive fan and was lining up to pick him in defence last year as he played a lot of half back flank in 2018 and could see that development coming when he played midfield in the last few games of 2018. Couldn't believe when he was midfield only last year. He was played almost exclusively midfield in the first 5-6 rounds, as a negating type player especially, played on Fyfe and Cripps. Has exquisite skill and is a nice size @ 187cm, pretty slow though. Played all over in the last few rounds he came back. Easily see him boosting his average to around 90 this year - think 100+ over the entire year is optimistic as I think he will still play a bit in defence / attack. Bit more versatile than Fiorini, Miller, Brodie etc..
I'm selecting Weller. Very cliche but been playing midfield / on ball in pre season match sim. Did so in the last 2 weeks of 2019- note 11 tackles and 7 inside 50's in rd 23. Had 9 clearances in the last two weeks, only averaged 2.2 for the year. Also had 2 scoring shots + 1 GA the last 2 weeks, prior to that had 8 combined scoring shots and GA in the first 21 weeks. Some of those things don't score you points, but give an indication to his potential in that role - oh and scored 107+110 those 2 games. One that we're apparently looking for him to continue in. My one concern is that it might only take a Pearce Hanley injury for him to get shifted back. Half back is not full of depth for us, Charlie Ballard injured as well takes another player from that area.
My gut says not to pick him but my brain tells me I should. The way my team is currently structured, there’s no glaringly obvious way to spend the cash saving either which doesn’t help.
Your final point is the killer for me too.
He'll be OK, the club has said he will play at least one pre season game before the season proper.
Vision of him out of the brace and jogging laps at training today on Mitch Cleary’s twitter
What structure are ppl going with at the moment? As much as I’d like 5 guns in the midfield it looks like there will be a number of really good rookie options there. I don’t think I’m going Grundy and Gawn either which obviously frees up cash. Thoughts?
Personally I think you have to take the good rookies wherever they present, so if that happens to be the midfield, then so be it. Having said that, there are so many midfield guns at the moment that I'd love in my team.
Sorry if already been covered but is Sam Docherty worth the risk off such a significant lay-off?
I've heard nothing but if he plays in the pre-season he's in my team.