2017 Forward Midpricers
- Thread starter Tevez17
- Start date
- Jun 11, 2015
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I have Roughead and Nankervis and would love to add Steele but when do you stop?
Is this unprecedented? Have we ever had this many mid priced players with legitimate reasons for improving their average? (new club + role, ESS suspension, LTI). I'm trying to get some context on how much risk we can afford to take this year.
Last year I can't think of anywhere near as many guys.
I'm a Sainter so I'm biased but I think Steele is the real deal - if he plays the same role in the season proper.
The knock on him was 2-fold:
he was great against lesser opposition, ie in the NEAFL, but tended to fold against the better opposition - not evident yesterday
he was too up-and-down - too soon to tell but he played various positions with the Giants and rarely spent time in the mids
The Sainters wanted him and chased him, and Stevens, because they fulfill a specific need: tall-ish, big-bodied contested mids who tackle and can also play outside. Ross was the only mid they had like that. Steven, Armitage, Dunstan and Newnes are all on the short side, Gresham is very short, Billings and Acres are outside players.
In sum: I think he's likely to average 90+ but not necessarily top-10.
Is he a good pick? Can you accept a 90av? Or would you want him as a stepping stone. Priced at 64 he's likely to make $125,000+.
- Jun 11, 2015
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Thats what I did yesterday. Steele is a bit cheaper and I think has a bigger upside.
There's a lot of talk around about Jack Steele. He had a solid JLT but his scores last year were pretty ordinary. I realise his role at GWS was obviously different, but will the role he played in the JLT be what he plays all year?? Very risky pick going on scoring history
Yeah I like him but at the price you'd want him to be a keeper and I just don't quite see it myself, Guys just don't break out from the 300-400K range, the only thing that gives me pause with Steele a bit is that had he been at a different club last season he would have more overall game time and also pure-mid time thus in essence is he actually a 400K-450K priced guy ready to break into Premo scoring ala Merrett & lesser extent Hall.
was pretty much best on ground every week for the Giants in the NEAFL, contested and tackling beast which scores well for supercoach, suffered playing mostly forward in the senior team... if he can convert 70% his stats from the NEAFL over the last two years to the AFL then he'll be a great pick http://www.aflplayerratings.com.au/Ratings/Player/121018/Jack-STEELE this is where you can see a brief review of each game, look at the NEAFL games where he's playing midfield rather than forward in the AFL
Obviously AFL and NEAFL are two different things, but 30+ touches each week for the last 2 years week in week out, if he can take 22 touches, a few tackles and a goal a game with 8/22 being contested then that's a keeper effort
I see at least 2 "if"s in this post ... I think that means it's an "iffy" choice.
thanks for the input, pretty sure most people on these forums know most 350k picks are a bit iffy
My one IF was IF he can convert 70% of his stats form NEAFL to AFL, then listed roughly what that looks like... I'll count that as hardly one, not atleast 2
ps, I use the word IF in more or less every post I make. Whether it be about Danger or Dawson, I'd like to be able to predict the future but for now I've gotta use words like "if" to suggest possibilities
He thrives as a player off his contested touches and tackles, nowhere near as much of the in close stuff up forward. Hence why he suffered at the Giants, minimal minutes in the midfield, and those minutes were barely at centre bounces, and even if he was, every time he'd be alongside a couple other GWS gun mids. On top of that, when he went forward why would you kick it to Jack Steele ahead of Stevie J, Toby Greene, Devon Smith, Jez Cameron, Jono Patton.... Unlike a lot of other fwd/mids like Petracca, Billings, Bont who are genuine target forward Steele doesn't really offer that... I don't really see his role changing too much from what it was in the JLT, considering how well he did and new players to a club generally do get the role change they desire
Steele will be a key midfielder at St Kilda for a long time, so I can definitely see them giving him every opportunity in the middle
With all that being said, I do not think he's a safe pick, but definitely the safest pick under 400k to possibly be a keeper, his ceiling is huge, his NEAFL stats show he is capable of maintaining insane form for a long time, his JLT series scores were 50 (from about 30-35% gametime), 155 and 114 and I believe he's set to get the role he deserves
Hehehe. @Prospector consider yourself put in your place.
... I did think it was a trifle harsh counting that as two "if"s given he was essentially making the same point twice.
@M4TT B8S - you make a good case. I'm going to go back and look at Steele closely now. I hadn't really even bothered to look because there are so many fallen primos that I've not bothered with the speculative breakout contenders. So it sounds like you rate Steele ahead of Nankervis as speculative forward line picks? What's your thinking there?
If you have Sandi you've gotta have Nankervis over Steele, but as pure breakout contenders I like Steele a little more
I'm tempted to take both, I really don't like those forward Premiums but if they don't work out I've screwed myself... If they do though, it'll be a nice place to be
Hehehe. @Prospector consider yourself put in your place.
What do you see Roughead averaging? I was locked on him all pre season but I don't see him averaging more than 90, can even see him going as low as the 70-80 region. For me its too much risk for his awkward price.