2017 Backline Midpricers

[cactus]

Really only two who I'm prepared to consider:

Hibberd - about 400K, a couple of years ago there were folks lining up to pay 500K for this bloke (great deal that turned out to be ) and he was spoken about in the same breath as Simpson. Now you can't get any takers at 400K. Will surely outperform his price but will it be by enough?

KK - about 375K, after a couple of seasons the sky look like the limit for KK. Thank god he missed R1 last year or I might have been on him. There were genuine excuses for him last year. Partial bowel obstructions. Concussions. But he was he was really really putrid. Would have to look phenomenal in the preseason to tempt me.

 

[the cranky one]

Really only two who I'm prepared to consider:

Hibberd - about 400K, a couple of years ago there were folks lining up to pay 500K for this bloke (great deal that turned out to be ) and he was spoken about in the same breath as Simpson. Now you can't get any takers at 400K. Will surely outperform his price but will it be by enough?

KK - about 375K, after a couple of seasons the sky look like the limit for KK. Thank god he missed R1 last year or I might have been on him. There were genuine excuses for him last year. Partial bowel obstructions. Concussions. But he was he was really really putrid. Would have to look phenomenal in the preseason to tempt me.

putrid is putting it politely, kk is on my shyte list and marked never to return

 

[Haychh]

putrid is putting it politely, kk is on my shyte list and marked never to return

Yep I traded him in Rd 4, and couldn't get him off my list! Just loitered around the 300-350k Mark pumping out 60 after 60, ended up playing as my D7. Never again list for me! Still gives me nightmares

 

[M4TT B8S]

Not interested in backline midpricers full stop. The bar for top 6 defenders is that high this season it's pointless to hope a midpricer will end up somewhere near it... Unless they cost only 200-250k and have significant upside then I won't be going near them, I think top 6 defenders this year should all average 100-105, if not more

Midpricers don't often work out, only reason we looked at them last year is nobody was sure about the premiums... This year the premiums look really strong down back, spoilt for choice, won't be about picking someone who can hold their 95 avg, quite a lot of the defenders have reason to go 105+, I think we'll end up with atleast 4 defenders this year averaging 105+... If that's the case it won't be about picking midpricers right, it'll be about getting that top tier as fast as possible because they're next level above the rest, just because the gap will be so big... If your midpricer works out it'll score maybe 95 per week, so still requires an upgrade in best case scenario. If your midpricer doesn't work out then you'll end up with a 300k player scoring 70s on a good day, not enough reward for the risk you're taking

 

[cactus]

Hard to argue with your logic M4TT. Hibberd's ceiling is clearly not high enough. On exposed form KK has the potential to be a back line keeper in the future but I'd have to see a demonstrated turn in his form ie. multiple home and away season 100s before I'd actually put him in my team.

 

[doddy2731]

Not interested in backline midpricers full stop. The bar for top 6 defenders is that high this season it's pointless to hope a midpricer will end up somewhere near it... Unless they cost only 200-250k and have significant upside then I won't be going near them, I think top 6 defenders this year should all average 100-105, if not more

Midpricers don't often work out, only reason we looked at them last year is nobody was sure about the premiums... This year the premiums look really strong down back, spoilt for choice, won't be about picking someone who can hold their 95 avg, quite a lot of the defenders have reason to go 105+, I think we'll end up with atleast 4 defenders this year averaging 105+... If that's the case it won't be about picking midpricers right, it'll be about getting that top tier as fast as possible because they're next level above the rest, just because the gap will be so big... If your midpricer works out it'll score maybe 95 per week, so still requires an upgrade in best case scenario. If your midpricer doesn't work out then you'll end up with a 300k player scoring 70s on a good day, not enough reward for the risk you're taking

Backline has to be Guns and Rookies, again have to agree with @cactus you would really need to see how roles are played and form in the early H&A matches is.

 

[TomCat]

I'll be keeping eye on Thurlow but will probably stick to Guns and Rookies.

As much as I love KK he won't be in my starting team. There's only so many times he can burn a girl.

 

[Tevez17]

I'll be keeping eye on Thurlow but will probably stick to Guns and Rookies.

As much as I love KK he won't be in my starting team. There's only so many times he can burn a girl.

You'd think he'll get eased back in a bit and seems a bit over priced coming off a knee, if he comes in and averages 80 I reckon thats a failure so it a tough ask for the kid,

Hartlett interesting me but geez he was awful last season

 

[cactus]

Nick Vlastuin is moving from the back pocket to the midfield for the Tiges this year according to multiple sources (including Nick himself in a video). In a different year - if there were less genuine backline primos available - you might consider him. Could be the Jack Newnes of this year (Jack probably ended up being a narrow win the year everyone was taking him in the backline but he was frustrating to hold through the early part of the season for those who had him). That sort of performance unlikely to be enough this year. Another one to watch how he goes through the early rounds of the home and away and if he is starting to post some consistent good scores could be one to get on to.

 

[Dawn of the Ravens]

what you guys think of the following zach tuohy, callum mills, hartlett, biggs, jack martin any hope of a breakout from any of them thinking could be martin

 

[cactus]

what you guys think of the following zach tuohy, callum mills, hartlett, biggs, jack martin any hope of a breakout from any of them thinking could be martin

Well hope, yes. But so many seasons get derailed by people going for el-cheapo could-be-premiums in the back line that you want a bit more than hope. If you have a strong lead that one of them is going to be playing a my SC relevant role they could be OK. But from what I've head Hartlett's drop off last year was because of a change of role so you want to be fairly sure he was going back to his old role to take him this year I'd think.

 

[Tevez17]

Well hope, yes. But so many seasons get derailed by people going for el-cheapo could-be-premiums in the back line that you want a bit more than hope. If you have a strong lead that one of them is going to be playing a my SC relevant role they could be OK. But from what I've head Hartlett's drop off last year was because of a change of role so you want to be fairly sure he was going back to his old role to take him this year I'd think.

I'll still be keeping an eye on Hartlett has a class about him if head and body is right.

 

[Kid81]

I'd love to get your guys opinions of Michael Johnson from Freo. He has put up the numbers in the past. returning from injury and a decent pre-season, can he get back to his best?

 

[cactus]

I'd love to get your guys opinions of Michael Johnson from Freo. He has put up the numbers in the past. returning from injury and a decent pre-season, can he get back to his best?

You'll have to explain the "put up the numbers in the past" bit to me ... I might be missing something? Are you saying that he has previously averaged back line keeper numbers in the past? Because looking back that doesn't seem to be true. Highest season average in the past 10 years of 89. A lot of people think 90-92 won't be good enough for a back line keeper this year and Johnson has never achieved even that much. Mostly averages mid to low 80s and has had three yearly averages of under 80 ... add in getting older and more injury prone and I can see any attraction at all ...

 

[Kid81]

Sorry, I have done some research and while it is clear in my head, perhaps not so easy to see just looking at season averages.

2014 - round 1-11 Ave = 98 picked up an injury round 12 and came back round 17 but was still under injury cloud.
2015 - round 2-9 Ave = 90. picked up an injury round 10 and came back round 20 for ave 88 with a 121 round 21. (round 1 - no data?)
2016 - just 4 games, heavily injury affected.
2017 - priced to average 62. Full pre-season under his belt.

He also has a disposal efficiency of 80% average that has improved over time. The Freo draw is also favourable before their bye with the only tough opponents being Geelong, Bulldogs, WCE and crows.
They play Port, Demons, North, Bombers, Tigers, Blues, Pies and Lions prior to the bye.

I feel like he can average 90 up to the byes then can be traded up to a shaw/rance/docherty type that may fall slightly.

Would love to know what you think based on the above.

 

[cactus]

Ah. Good post. Plenty of data. I see where you are coming from. More, stepping stone outside chance of becoming D6.

So, priced at 341K. I can see the point of 1 or 2 stepping stone across your starting line up. Swallow is the only one I have at the moment but I might entertain another depending how the rookies fall.

I don't think the numbers even when you've explained them a bit more make a very convincing case for MJ, but that doesn't mean you shouldn't start him. I do think abut of gut feel counts for something in this game and MJ could be a good pick. As long as you don't have lots of risks in other lines you could take him. But IMO the percentages say "no".

 

[doddy2731]

Good research great break down, but the only thing i got from it was "Injury History"

 

[TwentyThree]

I'd take Johnson in my 'kebab shop dream team' or my after midnight team in a heartbeat.

Seriously tho, I think his age and injury history might have him a bit past it. He has gone on some nice runs in the past tho, as shown by your data. Would be a pod move for sure.

 

[cactus]

For those contemplating Zac Williams here is an interesting article from the AFL website:

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2017-01-30/who-is-the-afls-most-underrated-player

It rates him 2nd out of all AFL players (behind only Danger) on Champion Data's new "relative rating" which rates players against others of a similar age who play a similar position. Maxy, NicNat, and the Bont round out the top five. I don't think the measure has direct SC relevance but it is interesting non the less.

I have probably been thinking to let Zac run against me just because of the number of players to share the GWS points but ... 22 years old and already elite in his SC relevant position ...

 

[Prospector]

For those contemplating Zac Williams here is an interesting article from the AFL website:

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2017-01-30/who-is-the-afls-most-underrated-player

It rates him 2nd out of all AFL players (behind only Danger) on Champion Data's new "relative rating" which rates players against others of a similar age who play a similar position. Maxy, NicNat, and the Bont round out the top five. I don't think the measure has direct SC relevance but it is interesting non the less.

I have probably been thinking to let Zac run against me just because of the number of players to share the GWS points but ... 22 years old and already elite in his SC relevant position ...

This is the guy to have when Heater retires, imo!