Rucks 2016

[cactus]

Just wanted peoples thoughts on Gawn. Not going near Lobbe, but considering Gawn or Blicavs for R2. Currently have Goldy and Blicavs

I'll be letting Maxy run against me I reckon.

Lowrider says 110-115 but there is little exposed form (only played 39 games across half a dozen seasons) so I think you'd be taking him a bit more in hope that expectation ...

He did score a couple of big scores last year but they were against some fairly moderate opposition.

I'm paying up and getting Stef and Goldy I reckon.

 

[J-Dog]

Just wanted peoples thoughts on Gawn. Not going near Lobbe, but considering Gawn or Blicavs for R2. Currently have Goldy and Blicavs

I really like the look of Gawn, but the more I think about it the more I just can't pick ahead of Blitz, Nic Nat, or Stef for a similar price. If he were 100k or even 50k cheaper I think he'd end up in a lot of teams.

 

[Tevez17]

With Danger, Selwood, Duncan & the whatever ruck combo Geelong goes with knocking out 400+pts a game is there enough points left Blicavs to go 110, Geelong look a bit like Sydney with point sharing.

 

[Steve]

With Danger, Selwood, Duncan & the whatever ruck combo Geelong goes with knocking out 400+pts a game is there enough points left Blicavs to go 110, Geelong look a bit like Sydney with point sharing.

Kind of along the same lines as Danger, Sloane, Thomson and Jacobs over the last few years... Those 4 have been so dominant in a middle of the road side, so they would always take the lions share of the points. Geelong is a bit stronger all over the ground. Outside Danger and Selwood and rookies (and maybe a couple of premo defenders) I don't think there's a lot of value at Geelong this year.

 

[tabs]

With Danger, Selwood, Duncan & the whatever ruck combo Geelong goes with knocking out 400+pts a game is there enough points left Blicavs to go 110, Geelong look a bit like Sydney with point sharing.

Agree thats why i'm not totally sold on Blicavs even though he should score well

 

[lenny]

Just wanted peoples thoughts on Gawn. Not going near Lobbe, but considering Gawn or Blicavs for R2. Currently have Goldy and Blicavs

I like him but for 50k more you can get Martin and a bit of peace of mind.

 

[tabs]

I like him but for 50k more you can get Martin and a bit of peace of mind.

True but as a New South Welshman i can never trust anyone playing for a queensland team. Also that $50k helped me get Ross in my team

 

[Hondo]

I think Gawn is a good option this year. These little $50K savings across the board can add up.

 

[lenny]

I want to see a bit more before Im convinced its a 50k saving

 

[Lowrider]

My concern with Stef (in SC that is) is his ceiling. I don't think his scoring can go higher that it is due to efficiency concerns. A lot of his score comes from marks rather than his ruckwork - his disposal efficiency is poor at around 65%. With the Brisbane midfield back to full-strength this year I wonder if he might actually have points taken away this year due to a changed gameplan and end up with a SC average more around 105, maybe even less. He plays all game so the reduced rotations might be in his favour, but it might also mean other teams play 2 more genuine ruckmen instead of 1 and a part-timer.

If you're still happy if he drops below 105, then no dramas. But, I won't be going near him in SC this season when he's priced at 110+. I'll probably still consider him in AF though.

 

[cactus]

My concern with Stef (in SC that is) is his ceiling. I don't think his scoring can go higher that it is due to efficiency concerns. A lot of his score comes from marks rather than his ruckwork - his disposal efficiency is poor at around 65%. With the Brisbane midfield back to full-strength this year I wonder if he might actually have points taken away this year due to a changed gameplan and end up with a SC average more around 105, maybe even less. He plays all game so the reduced rotations might be in his favour, but it might also mean other teams play 2 more genuine ruckmen instead of 1 and a part-timer.

If you're still happy if he drops below 105, then no dramas. But, I won't be going near him in SC this season when he's priced at 110+. I'll probably still consider him in AF though.

Well set out argument.

Not sure you are using the word "ceiling" in a way that I've seen it used before. I usually take it to mean how high the maximum individual scores from a player might be - Stef has posted scores in the 140-160 region meaning - to me at least - his ceiling is OK.

I guess my thinking is twofold. 1/ No Luey could help Stef a bit 2/ Better midfielders back so could get a couple more HTA (although to counter this Redden is gone). Doesn't need to increase his average to be a good pick. If he holds somewhere around 110 and stays on the park I'd be happy.

Having said that I still haven't thrown away the key. Still considering NicNat.

 

[Tevez17]

If Brisbane's midfield is better shouldn't that mean Stef gets more hit outs to advantage?

 

[jester5au]

Emma Quayle rated Wright is the number 1 player in his draft year. I don't think Currie is anywhere near a lock for round 1

Eade has also mentioned how big of a tank he has already with rotations capped could be a factor

 

[jester5au]

Was really hoping Gawn would have a quiet NAB. First full pre season, right age and ability to get the big scores. Seems he is a bit of a champion data love child too. If nic Nat plays the next couple of NAB games I'll take him otherwise Gawn. Either way set and forget looks like the way to go. Possibly a grimley and cox r3 f8 combo to compliment

 

[Dino]

FWIW Martin averaged 126 in the 8 games Luey didn't play.

 

[camloch]

At this stage im selecting gawn. Although he may be a slight risk with his durabitly (2 knee reco's). He could very well be over his injuries. Ill take the risk, hes at the right right price to sideways trade if need be. Although a sideways trade in the future to a nicnat may cause huge problems with the r2 position so for me its one or the other, and if one goes down i wont select the other instead choosing a proven durable player like a jacobs.

 

[bat]

The 50k between Gawn and Stef is basically for his injury history. If Maxy had more runs on the board he'd be the better pick. I'd still pick him over Stef just because of his ceiling.

 

[Steve]

The 50k between Gawn and Stef is basically for his injury history. If Maxy had more runs on the board he'd be the better pick. I'd still pick him over Stef just because of his ceiling.

Not sure what makes you think Gawn has a bigger ceiling.

2015 stats:
Martin : 20 games, 7 scores over 120 (35% of games), 11 games over 100 (55%), 2 scores of 76 or under from 20 games (10%).

Gawn: 13 games, 3 games over 120 (23%) 4 games over 100 (30%), 4 scores of 75 or under from 13 games (30%).

Yes, Gawn took time to find his feet but 2 of his 3 120+ scores came against Essendon (Mckernan rucking) and Geelong (no one rucking). He only tonned up in 4 of his 13 games. Less than a third of his games. Martin cracked the ton in over half of his games. When Martin has a rare bad game, he drops into the 70s. Gawn had as many games under 80 as he did over 100, including 58, 66, 67, 75 and 76.

It might just be because I dont see much value in Gawn, and because I rate Stef massively. But I would say that Stef clearly has a higher ceiling, and is fairly consistent. Gawn is all over the shop like a mad womans breakfast.

 

[bat]

Not sure what makes you think Gawn has a bigger ceiling.

I am basing my opinion on a completely personal view and not really a statistical view. 13 games isn't a great sample size one way or another to decide whether a player has consistency issues.

With that being said, Stef is far and away the better option in that respect. You know you're getting 20+ touches at fairly average DE with 30+ hitouts at a fairly average effectiveness.

I just think Maxy's tap work is better (and more likely to get him big scores) and his contested work has improved.

Without a doubt, if you have the $50k you're certainly not making a mistake spending it on Stef..

 

[Lowrider]

Steve, I think you're looking at AF stats and not SC stats. Stef is clearly an AF gun while Gawn is more of a SC beast.

If you change it to SC stats:
2015 stats:
Martin : 20 games, 6 scores over 120 (30% of games), 11 games over 100 (55%), 1 scores of 76 or under from 20 games (5%).

Gawn: 13 games, 2 games over 120 (15%) 8 games over 100 (62%), 3 scores of 75 or under from 13 games (23%).

So while a lot doesn't change, a big thing is 100+ games Gawn actually has a better strike-rate. With his first full preseason for a while, you'd think those low games will disappear and a good chunk of those 100+ will turn into 120+.