Potential Trades Before Round 2

[Shaker]

Ryder is a month put they reckon will have to trade him just not sure wether to cash cash with nic nat or go merrett or witts for more solid points..any thoughts?

If it's a month he has to go achilles can drag on and he has a history , who to get well NN looked good but am concerned about his knee and if he is going to go that well with low TOG every week the other I'm thinking of is Nank , bit of a pain in the butts rucks this year.

 

[Lowrider]

If it's a month he has to go achilles can drag on and he has a history , who to get well NN looked good but am concerned about his knee and if he is going to go that well with low TOG every week the other I'm thinking of is Nank , bit of a pain in the butts rucks this year.

I like the look of NN, but then I look at all the travel he has to do, including trips to Tassie and Brissie the last month of the year. Brissie is round 23 as well. Coming back you'd think he'd get a week or two at some stage, especially if the Eagles look like missing finals as predicted. If it was in another line you could cover the risk, but most of us have no reliable ruck cover and if your ruck misses a game it's a donut.

I also think the 55% is a bit of a trap. In the past, playing more game time means he gets more fatigued and gets to fewer contests, meaning his scores are not necessarily any better. He really seems the sort of player who needs lower game time to have the most impact, a bit like Dylan Shiel. Therefore what he can average over a sustained period of games is a bit lower than other top line players who can play 80-90% TOG and maintain intensity throughout. I wouldn't guarantee he would score any better with 75% TOG. Going back through his history, even when he plays >80% TOG he doesn't score consistently better than when he plays 65% TOG.

 

[luke394]

Depending on Armitage's fitness maybe him down to Dom Barry have Arma at m7 at the moment. I can bank that cash, seems like I will be able to field Brayshaw and Kelly comfortably with Holman and Banfield on bench. Then next week can really get anyone I need to who stands out or get an extra premo I want who's off to a hot start. Thoughts?

 

[PickenWinners]

I also think the 55% is a bit of a trap. In the past, playing more game time means he gets more fatigued and gets to fewer contests, meaning his scores are not necessarily any better. He really seems the sort of player who needs lower game time to have the most impact, a bit like Dylan Shiel. Therefore what he can average over a sustained period of games is a bit lower than other top line players who can play 80-90% TOG and maintain intensity throughout. I wouldn't guarantee he would score any better with 75% TOG. Going back through his history, even when he plays >80% TOG he doesn't score consistently better than when he plays 65% TOG.

That's some top notch analysis Lowrider. Love your work

 

[arnot2mcbean]

Have Merrett who I'll probably trade for Oliver if he doesn't get up.

I'm usually one to hold my premiums & back them in but I was burnt by holding Haneberry & Treloar through 2017. Two concussions in 4 weeks is seriously concerning, might be best to abandon ship now.

 

[luke394]

Have Merrett who I'll probably trade for Oliver if he doesn't get up.

I'm usually one to hold my premiums & back them in but I was burnt by holding Haneberry & Treloar through 2017. Two concussions in 4 weeks is seriously concerning, might be best to abandon ship now.

Apparently the weekend was his first concussion, JLT was a migraine he had but played anyway. Footy classified just saying he is a very good chance to go to Perth this weekend

 

[Lowrider]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-03-26/nic-nat-targeting-full-season-after-successful-return
Not sure if this is a positive or a negative for selecting NN...

 

[Azza Jones]

To trade or not to trade!

I made a mistake with Kane Lambert I believe and have subbed him out to Swan Lloyd using keefe's dpp status.

I had Lloyd in my team for weeks leading up to the season but went with 2 premium 4 rookie structure in defence due to the numbers of good rookies around.

After watching the suns Lloyd will def be a top 6 defender this year. He will be racking up the pill and will stay in the backline due to the strength of the swans midfield.

 

[Centroprise]

Merrett and Ryder are the decisions this week. I have Danger to come in (if he plays) to cover for Merrett if he misses, but Ryder has to go. Confirmed out for at least four weeks, plus the his bye.

In order, I thinking Martin, Goldstein, Witts then Jacobs - just have to check my bye structure...

 

[moosey]

I'd only trade an injured ruckman this week. Hard to cop a donut at this stage.

Other circumstance is if you completely stuffed up the rookies and might need to make 3 or 4 trades to fix it (i.e. 2 next week isn't enough).

Libba would the other one, but I'd also make the case of riding the rookies for a week and getting another week of information before deciding on a trade target.

No trades for me this week.

Agree with this but also add if you missed a hot player such as a Parker/Cripps/Cogs etc!
30 trades is a lot of trades and the value we have been offered this year has allowed for 1-2 more possible keeper premiums thanks previous years, making as more flush with trades.

 

[Steve]

Agree with this but also add if you missed a hot player such as a Parker/Cripps/Cogs etc!
30 trades is a lot of trades and the value we have been offered this year has allowed for 1-2 more possible keeper premiums thanks previous years, making as more flush with trades.

I'm still wary of Parker. JPK was uncharacteristically quiet and Hannebery is still to come back.

 

[moosey]

I'm still wary of Parker. JPK was uncharacteristically quiet and Hannebery is still to come back.

Yeah take this with a grain of salt as it’s all down to what you expect/predict!
The thought is I strongly believe if a player Is hot get on early as every week that goes bye your trade value diminishes!

FWIW I have Parker returning to 110 this year.
JPK on the slide

 

[Centroprise]

Merrett and Ryder are the decisions this week. I have Danger to come in (if he plays) to cover for Merrett if he misses, but Ryder has to go. Confirmed out for at least four weeks, plus the his bye.

In order, I thinking Martin, Goldstein, Witts then Jacobs - just have to check my bye structure...

Martin and Goldstein are out, they have the R13 bye and do not suit my structure. Witts - can he be trusted...Jacobs...or NN or Nank.

Going with Jacobs- I don't want to trade again. NN and Nank good price, suits my bye structure but I don't expect NN to play every game and Nanks total scoring worries me. I am holding R3 as my Danger/Martin loophole. I was thinking Witts, but the R10 bye sucks and with no R3 I have convinced myself it has to be Jacobs

 

[Machineman]

I have Ryder and can go to Cripps or Parker via DPP.

Do people think Parker will get thrown forward too much again this year? It made him very up and down last year. Cripps seems like the more vanilla value safe pick.
It leaves my R2 as English, but the rucks look like a nightmare to me:
Kruzer - too easily injured.
Nic Nat - could get injured again.
Goldy - could end up with Pruess in the side
Martin - could end up with Smith in the side.
Witts/Nank/Jacobs - are they big enough scorers?

Option 1: Nic Nat with Holman on field or
Option 2: Cripps with English on the field??

Thoughts?

Here's my DPP move...the biggest one I have ever done:
1. Trade Ryder
2. Move English from Fwd to Ruck.
3. Move Sicily from Def to Fwd.
4. Move Finlayson from Mid to Fwd.
5. Trade in Cripps.


I'm liking Cripps/English, but I lose English's cover going forward.

 

[Centroprise]

I have Ryder and can go to Cripps or Parker via DPP.

Do people think Parker will get thrown forward too much again this year? It made him very up and down last year. Cripps seems like the more vanilla value safe pick.
It leaves my R2 as English, but the rucks look like a nightmare to me:
Kruzer - too easily injured.
Nic Nat - could get injured again.
Goldy - could end up with Pruess in the side
Martin - could end up with Smith in the side.
Witts/Nank/Jacobs - are they big enough scorers?

Option 1: Nic Nat with Holman on field or
Option 2: Cripps with English on the field??

Thoughts?

Here's my DPP move...the biggest one I have ever done:
1. Trade Ryder
2. Move English from Fwd to Ruck.
3. Move Sicily from Def to Fwd.
4. Move Finlayson from Mid to Fwd.
5. Trade in Cripps.


I'm liking Cripps/English, but I lose English's cover going forward.

Interesting... What do you expect English to average at R2? 60?, 80?

 

[Machineman]

Interesting... What do you expect English to average at R2? 60?, 80?

Unfortunately just like all the other rookies, I'm not sure, but he will continue to get more Ruck time (from Coach), so he will be in the thick of things and around the ball...hopefully 70??

 

[Lowrider]

Here's my current thoughts on the rucks. Outside of Gawn, I don't have a clear cut answer though. Add in your personal opinion and preference to suit the rest of your team.

I think if you're looking for a keeper (which I feel you should be for the rucks each year, unless there's obvious bargains like Witts of 2017) he needs to be averaging at least 105 with the capability to go 110+. While last year nobody achieved 110, I think there's plenty of guys who can do it and given we're hoping for keepers we need to target these blokes.

Gawn - Lock
Kreuz - Looked top shelf last year and consistent, but he has always struggled to get a string of games. 2 niggles already this season. Don't mind him, but don't think he can top his 2017 season and I'd only pick him if you have cover because the risk of missing a game here and there is high.
Martin - I ended up picking him. He looks fit and ready to go back to 100+ scoring and reckon he can hit 110. Smith looks to be out of the picture and McIniery looks to be the next in line. He's not putting a lot of pressure on and if Walker and McStay are fit I can't see a 2nd ruckman being included at all this season.
Goldstein - He really scares me not picking him as he looks really good and we know he's easily capable of 115+ (and much more). But Preuss also looked good in the pre-season and we've seen massive score drops when he shares the ruck. You'd have to think Preuss is pressuring and will get a chance at some stage, and for that reason alone I couldn't pick Goldy.
Grundy - I'm actually tempted. Cox is there, but he's also their only forward now as well. Grundy is still only 23yo so still maturing and improving his game too. I think even with Cox, Grundy could still put up a 105 average this year. He might be our sides for the next 5-10 years as a top 2 ruck, but I want to see it before I pick him. If you took the risk on him, I don't mind it.
Witts - Solo ruck and worth considering. Could do better than his 95 from last year. But again, would like to see him do it first and also show he can play 22 games.
NicNat - He's gone over 105 once only which was a 114 all the way back in 2012. He's only cracked 100 3 times. He's returning from significant injury. He'll be playing limited game time for the first month and has to travel every 2nd week. Add that all up and I can't do it, but he's also the cheapest so I can understand why people would want to. I just can't see him scoring enough to carry that risk and the risk of him missing games is too high, especially when you're already burning a trade to bring him in. I feel if you took the punt on him it had to be from the start.

Then there's a whole bunch who'll be in the 90-100 bracket, which I consider just not enough for a ruck - Jacobs, McEvoy, Sinclair, Sandi, Nank, Smith, Bellchambers. Maybe you could make a case for Nank (fitness improved) and Smith (if no Stanley) to go over 100 for the year. But I'd like to see them do it first.

Just my opinion, and I think I've got a good record of judging the rucks correctly. But, if we all agreed it would be a pretty boring game!!!

 

[Orallus_Maximus]

I've been hit with the "Libba-I-tore-a" Ligament curse and not sure which way to go.

Have about $180k cash available. Got the main rookies.

Current side:
DEF: Laird, Hibberd, McDonald (D/M), Doedee, Murrya, Finlayson (D/M) [Naughton, Murphy]
MID: Dusty, Josh Kelly, Fyfe, Cripps, Cogs, Kelly, Holman, A Brayshaw [ Banfield, Barry, Libba ]
RUC: Gawn, Nank [Cameron]
FWD: Heeney, Billings, Smith, Petracca, Christensen, Fritsch [Garlett (F/M), Giles-Langdon]

For some dumb reason I decided to go with Luke McDonald (DEF/MID) after having Siciliy in the team for most of the lead up - "Regrets? I've had a few..."


Have a few options I am thinking at the moment:
Bench Libba and see what happens this week - no trade
Upgrade Libba direct to someone now (eg: Parker) Libba + cash = $617k - unfortunately not enough for Mitchell
Downgrade Libba with a swingman (eg: D/M into Libba and bring in Bonner or Siciliy or perhaps Garlett F/M and Siciliy or English)
Double trade - Example McDonald to Siciily or Bonner (extra cash) then Libba up to Tom Mitchell (have enough cash to do this)


Appreciate any thoughts / insights from the SCC crew?

 

[moosey]

Here's my current thoughts on the rucks. Outside of Gawn, I don't have a clear cut answer though. Add in your personal opinion and preference to suit the rest of your team.

I think if you're looking for a keeper (which I feel you should be for the rucks each year, unless there's obvious bargains like Witts of 2017) he needs to be averaging at least 105 with the capability to go 110+. While last year nobody achieved 110, I think there's plenty of guys who can do it and given we're hoping for keepers we need to target these blokes.

Gawn - Lock
Kreuz - Looked top shelf last year and consistent, but he has always struggled to get a string of games. 2 niggles already this season. Don't mind him, but don't think he can top his 2017 season and I'd only pick him if you have cover because the risk of missing a game here and there is high.
Martin - I ended up picking him. He looks fit and ready to go back to 100+ scoring and reckon he can hit 110. Smith looks to be out of the picture and McIniery looks to be the next in line. He's not putting a lot of pressure on and if Walker and McStay are fit I can't see a 2nd ruckman being included at all this season.
Goldstein - He really scares me not picking him as he looks really good and we know he's easily capable of 115+ (and much more). But Preuss also looked good in the pre-season and we've seen massive score drops when he shares the ruck. You'd have to think Preuss is pressuring and will get a chance at some stage, and for that reason alone I couldn't pick Goldy.
Grundy - I'm actually tempted. Cox is there, but he's also their only forward now as well. Grundy is still only 23yo so still maturing and improving his game too. I think even with Cox, Grundy could still put up a 105 average this year. He might be our sides for the next 5-10 years as a top 2 ruck, but I want to see it before I pick him. If you took the risk on him, I don't mind it.
Witts - Solo ruck and worth considering. Could do better than his 95 from last year. But again, would like to see him do it first and also show he can play 22 games.
NicNat - He's gone over 105 once only which was a 114 all the way back in 2012. He's only cracked 100 3 times. He's returning from significant injury. He'll be playing limited game time for the first month and has to travel every 2nd week. Add that all up and I can't do it, but he's also the cheapest so I can understand why people would want to. I just can't see him scoring enough to carry that risk and the risk of him missing games is too high, especially when you're already burning a trade to bring him in. I feel if you took the punt on him it had to be from the start.

Then there's a whole bunch who'll be in the 90-100 bracket, which I consider just not enough for a ruck - Jacobs, McEvoy, Sinclair, Sandi, Nank, Smith, Bellchambers. Maybe you could make a case for Nank (fitness improved) and Smith (if no Stanley) to go over 100 for the year. But I'd like to see them do it first.

Just my opinion, and I think I've got a good record of judging the rucks correctly. But, if we all agreed it would be a pretty boring game!!!

Just on Kruze not many realise he has played 56 of the Last 58 games which is exactly the same as Sauce!
Not good he just went off injured but is a consideration.
Also Kruze went at 117 last half of last year!

 

[Lowrider]

Just on Kruze not many realise he has played 56 of the Last 58 games which is exactly the same as Sauce!
Not good he just went off injured but is a consideration.
Also Kruze went at 117 last half of last year!

Yes, I don't mind him. But 2 niggles already this year makes you reconsider. I had him for a lot of preseason but ended up going the cheaper option (Martin) when Kreuz got his injury and when it became apparent Smith was out of the picture.