2018 Midfield Premiums

[qarocks]

Love a bit of SC maths.

Every round Danger misses and you field a rookie rather than a premium mid: ~50-70ppg

The additional funds you free up switching Danger to another mid = roughly $150k = 10-15ppg.

Which means in total every week Danger misses is around 70-90 ppg.

Assuming he misses 1 week, and let's assume the earliest people will have the cash to upgrade to him is in about 6 weeks. Danger has 5 rounds to make up 80ish points. Saying he's 10ppg better than the field = 50 points. Then say he's probably going to be a 10ppg better captain option = another 50 points. If that's the case he's made the points from week one.

There are plenty of variables at play here, particularly if misses more than one week. Will he still score as well coming back from an injury he's never had? He's played well injured before.

Keep in mind we will get to see most of the mid rookie scores because of the late Geelong game. If you have an E on a base price rookie mid who scores 90, then I think you have to start Danger. At most you're probably losing 50 points which Danger should cover comfortably. Even if he misses 2 weeks Danger is probably odds on to cover the 100ish points.

I'm sure there's some flawed logic in there but I'm leaning towards starting Danger if it looks like he'll only miss a week. Too much of a headache trying to find a way to get him in.

I like it. Does anyone recall the match last season where he scored like 60 odd? Was that injury related at all?
There was also that game where he got injured, went forward and could have kicked 12.

Additionally, lets image this injury happened in round 1. we would have the old trade or hold convo. 1-2 weeks hold, 3+ trade.

if you are going to ever gamble on a premo coming back and blitzing it, it is dangerfield.

 

[bat]

I like it. Does anyone recall the match last season where he scored like 60 odd? Was that injury related at all?

I don't, but he had 21 and a goal in a side that lost by 5 goals. Think it was just a down day. No mention of an injury on FF.

 

[Steve]

It was against Collingwood. 2 weeks earlier he copped a heavy knock against Hawthorn from Roughy and was quietish. From memory he was struggling with chest pain for 2 to 3 weeks afterwards. A week later against the Saints he scored well but only because of a couple of late goals and a big last quarter. The Pies game was an absolute write off for Geelong. They matched up on us really well and worked us out. Complete outcoached on the day.

Geelong and Danger were average the next few weeks... Lost 3 in a row from round 6 to 8 and looked terrible. We then hit form, losing only 2 more for the year and Danger went on a tear... His next 9 games didn't drop below 141 and he averaged 155. His quiet month was definitely because of the Roughy hit.

 

[arnot2mcbean]

The more I think about it the more I think there is just too much uncertainty at Danger's price considering the hammy & the unknown of Ablett's influence on his scoring.

Team without him just looks dirty though.

 

[Mark185]

I like it. Does anyone recall the match last season where he scored like 60 odd? Was that injury related at all?
There was also that game where he got injured, went forward and could have kicked 12.

I do because it was against my Hawks and I was there. He could not be stopped in the marking contest when he went forward. Just couldn’t kick straight!

 

[Prospector]

if you are going to ever gamble on a premo coming back and blitzing it, it is dangerfield.

We used to say that about the GOAT!

 

[qarocks]

It was against Collingwood. 2 weeks earlier he copped a heavy knock against Hawthorn from Roughy and was quietish. From memory he was struggling with chest pain for 2 to 3 weeks afterwards. A week later against the Saints he scored well but only because of a couple of late goals and a big last quarter. The Pies game was an absolute write off for Geelong. They matched up on us really well and worked us out. Complete outcoached on the day.

Geelong and Danger were average the next few weeks... Lost 3 in a row from round 6 to 8 and looked terrible. We then hit form, losing only 2 more for the year and Danger went on a tear... His next 9 games didn't drop below 141 and he averaged 155. His quiet month was definitely because of the Roughy hit.

Cheers for that.

He started off with the quiet 138, 140, 138. Then 90 against the hawks when he got the hit.
Then went 120 the week after, then 65 during the collingwood game.

Obviously shook him because he only went 110 then 112 after the pies game, followed by 151, 163, 149

... if he is out for 1 week I am def holding!!

 

[luke394]

Is anyone picking Selwood? Gaz and Danger will potentially change forward more with each other, I reckon Selwood will play the most midfield minutes of any of them. Scoring since 2009:
110.9 (2009)
117.8 (2010)
111.5 (2011)
117.7 (2012)
118.4 (2013)
120.9 (2014)
104.8 (2015)
111.5 (2016)
102.2 (included an injured 3 in round 12 was averaging 112 before that game) (2017)

has really only averaged below 110 once in the last 9 years. I think he's value at 560k.

Do Danger and Gaz both spend more time forward initially with their interrupted pre seasons?

 

[qarocks]

Is anyone picking Selwood? Gaz and Danger will potentially change forward more with each other, I reckon Selwood will play the most midfield minutes of any of them. Scoring since 2009:
110.9 (2009)
117.8 (2010)
111.5 (2011)
117.7 (2012)
118.4 (2013)
120.9 (2014)
104.8 (2015)
111.5 (2016)
102.2 (included an injured 3 in round 12 was averaging 112 before that game) (2017)

has really only averaged below 110 once in the last 9 years. I think he's value at 560k.

Do Danger and Gaz both spend more time forward initially with their interrupted pre seasons?

i dont think you could go wrong with that pick, but personally I think someone like Zac Merrett is a better pick as his upside is greater imo and I found the cash to get him in.

Selwood in theory is sharing some points with Danger, Gaj and Duncan. that's a lot of quality there!
I am very keen to see how Selwood goes, I have had him the last few years - that game where he got KO'd for like 1 point last year was brutal

 

[Lowrider]

I'm not starting Danger, even if named round 1. Too much unknown for me. Taking the punt on picking him up around 650k at some point.

Still unsure exact plan. Might just go guns n rookies and bet on the opportunity arises. Or, take a risk and punt on 2 mid-pricers and hopefully make a little cash before merging into Danger and a rookie.

 

[eddystone]

Let me know how mad I am...

Saints first 3 games are Lions, NM, Crows all at Etihad Stadium. If Armitage can average 90 - 100 over these 3 games he will go up 40K - 50K after first price rise, meaning about 400K required in the bank to go to Danger after round 3. Probably a big ask for Armitage to average that, but he can go big and the first 2 games look like they should be easy wins for the Saints. It does mean locking in a trade at round 3 leaving only one other trade for corrections which is pretty risky.

Basically I'm thinking of straight swapping Danger out of my team for Armitage and leaving the remaining cash unused until Danger comes back...

 

[tiltraise]

Love a bit of SC maths.

Every round Danger misses and you field a rookie rather than a premium mid: ~50-70ppg

The additional funds you free up switching Danger to another mid = roughly $150k = 10-15ppg.

Which means in total every week Danger misses is around 70-90 ppg.

Assuming he misses 1 week, and let's assume the earliest people will have the cash to upgrade to him is in about 6 weeks. Danger has 5 rounds to make up 80ish points. Saying he's 10ppg better than the field = 50 points. Then say he's probably going to be a 10ppg better captain option = another 50 points. If that's the case he's made the points from week one.

There are plenty of variables at play here, particularly if misses more than one week. Will he still score as well coming back from an injury he's never had? He's played well injured before.

Keep in mind we will get to see most of the mid rookie scores because of the late Geelong game. If you have an E on a base price rookie mid who scores 90, then I think you have to start Danger. At most you're probably losing 50 points which Danger should cover comfortably. Even if he misses 2 weeks Danger is probably odds on to cover the 100ish points.

I'm sure there's some flawed logic in there but I'm leaning towards starting Danger if it looks like he'll only miss a week. Too much of a headache trying to find a way to get him in.

Interesting it could all come down to what your emerg scores whether you opt to go with him or not.

 

[Haychh]

Let me know how mad I am...

Saints first 3 games are Lions, NM, Crows all at Etihad Stadium. If Armitage can average 90 - 100 over these 3 games he will go up 40K - 50K after first price rise, meaning about 400K required in the bank to go to Danger after round 3. Probably a big ask for Armitage to average that, but he can go big and the first 2 games look like they should be easy wins for the Saints. It does mean locking in a trade at round 3 leaving only one other trade for corrections which is pretty risky.

Basically I'm thinking of straight swapping Danger out of my team for Armitage and leaving the remaining cash unused until Danger comes back...

If you're looking at trading in Danger at Rd3 you might as well start with him. If you don't start with him you have to be banking on him either not playing round 1 or starting off slowly and getting him cheaper later on.

 

[Lowrider]

Ok.... just jotting out some maths for a wild idea:
Start 2 guys in the mid-price bracket - say JOM ($315k) and Graham ($268k) - total cost $583k.
Hope for Danger to start a bit slower and drop a little in price, maybe $680k by round 6.
Mid-price guys to average 80 and increase to $400k and $350k respectively.
Then trade mid-pricers + $50k for Danger + rookie.
Meanwhile you have 160 points on field and you have spent $633k for Danger (and a rookie) although you've also spent 2 trades.

Of course it could fall over at many points.... but just writing it down to think about as an option. Does give those mid-pricers a role in your team and if it all works out you get Danger fairly cheaply. It also provides an option to get Danger in without trading out a premium. You wouldn't be able to use 2 ripe cash cows until mid-season otherwise to get him in otherwise.

 

[k-red17]

Ok.... just jotting out some maths for a wild idea:
Start 2 guys in the mid-price bracket - say JOM ($315k) and Graham ($268k) - total cost $583k.
Hope for Danger to start a bit slower and drop a little in price, maybe $680k by round 6.
Mid-price guys to average 80 and increase to $400k and $350k respectively.
Then trade mid-pricers + $50k for Danger + rookie.

Whilst that idea sounds great, what happens if you have other areas that needs fixing that week? For me personally I try and not plan to far ahead as I just know the SC gods have something in store just around the corner that F's everything hehe.

 

[Lowrider]

Whilst that idea sounds great, what happens if you have other areas that needs fixing that week? For me personally I try and not plan to far ahead as I just know the SC gods have something in store just around the corner that F's everything hehe.

There's always unpredictability. Having said that, I don't think you can go into the season without some plan around Danger. Even if you pick him, what happens if he's named and a late out? What happens if he misses 2 instead of 1? What if it's still uncertain? IF you don't pick him, how do you get him? If he continues last year's form you need him and you need him early. How do you do that? It's hard to find $700k when you need it.

As for what if there's more urgent issues? If it's an injured premium, you just trade him for Danger and do what you like with the mid-pricers! Through DPP it shouldn't matter what line unless it's a ruckman. If it is a ruckman, well you just wait and extra week. It's not a definite week when you need to make the move, you got a week or two leeway either side to make the move when it suits and prices are right.

My main issue is whether I can carry 2 mid-pricers in the midfield. With the value premiums available and plenty of rookies, I'm reluctant to hand 2 midfield spots to mid-pricers. Maybe one in the forward line and one in the midfield is an option.

 

[Captain Danger]

I love Danger (captain obvious) but have decided ironically not to start him- too much uncertainty around him. My plan is to get him when his price (hopefully) drops or when/if I get an injured premium. Can he really get more expensive? He should drop sometime in price.

The problem I have is what do to with the extra $265k, actually quite happy with my current team.
Do I upgrade to another premium, if so where? Defence,Mid or the forward line. The forward line is a little short on rookies should I go deeper there?
I could upgrade Witherden, Cripps, Coniglio, or Christensen. Don't want to upgrade a rookie to another mid pricer.

Or do I keep some $$ for upgrading

 

[k-red17]

Danger set to play!

Tomato Sauce - Fox Footy

 

[Steve]

Last night I took Dangerfield out of my side for the first time since January. It looks a lot more even across the park and allowed me to upgrade my M6 to Coniglio. Long term, I plan on turning him into Danger but I'll see how everything pans out.