Round 2 Pondering's - What The Ruck?

Orallus_Maximus

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Getting in early... Premo Ruck - WTF?

6 Games in and Tom Hickey is the highest scoring Ruck followed by The Big O.

Is there something different in the way the game is being played that perhaps impacts the Ruck?
 

Seppo

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Getting in early... Premo Ruck - WTF?

6 Games in and Tom Hickey is the highest scoring Ruck followed by The Big O.

Is there something different in the way the game is being played that perhaps impacts the Ruck?
Lower ruck scoring had certainly been the theory in the preseason, but I’m not ready to concede that rucks are going to score all that differently yet. The game was a lot more contested than the preseason, so I think the rucks have a chance to bounce back. Week 1 is always silly season and we’ve had some pretty shocking results so far. I would doubt they continue.

After all, didn’t Gawn and Grundy do this to us 2 years ago? They each scored like 80 in round 1 and both went on to average 130 IIRC. I picked both and I will be holding my structure. Fingers crossed
 

Dunny29

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Certainly too early for me to be going the early crow, but wow, I was confident they wouldn't score close to popular expectation (didn't want to sound too crazed lol), but certainly not to that extent.

I ended up going with Martin and Hickey as R1/2 for the added (hopefully) JS the extra $300k spent provided compared to straight 3 rookies, could not be happier atm, but only 1 game in. Martin rucked most of the match with English playing forward and Hickey got very involved. I thought he was a better player than he has been able to show (eg not able to get ahead of McEvoy at the saints several years ago I think and NicNat at the Eagles when not injured more recently), I just hope he gets several weeks run at it and not rested/dropped for Sinclair. But the setup the swans used clearly worked last night.

Not sure if Grundy just struggled with a physical Stef or was perhaps also a bit rusty for Rd1, but he really looked to struggle for most of the match to get involved, other than tapping to the dogs mids.

Gawn was clearly playing more of a team role, sharing some ruck time with Jackson and looking to be a target up forward or push back. When he pushed back May/Lever dominated even more, when he pushed forward he drew enough attention to make it easy for the other fwds to impact. He struggled early with Meeks really taking it to him in the first quarter, but worked his way in as Meeks' impact wore off as the game went on. Not sure it's good for Gawn owners he got more involved as the match went on, or a bad sign it came against a first gamer who was probably gassed by qtr time.


Honestly I don't know what I would do if holding either/both, to get team value from trading 1 out, you need to make 2 trades minimum depending on cash pocketed on the downgrade and team structure, maybe 3, unless you straight upgrade a rookie which would have to be the way to go I suspect. Burning 2 (or even 4 trades if you hold both at this point) prior to Rd3 is possibly shooting yourself in the other foot, but could easily be a better outcome if anything close to this type of scoring for rucks continues. But as we always say, don't trade premos.


Not only do we have fewer stoppages for ruck contests and even repeat stoppages ruckman could get the odd tackle/pressure act in, but the ball is pinging around the field, especially form arc to arc much quicker. So there has been minimal opportunity for the rucks to get set a kick ahead of play (or even just make it a kick ahead) so that they can get involved in as many contests as we have seen in the past. It's kinda pointless rucks chasing the next contest because they won't likely make it/impact and if the ball gets turned over quick, they may not make the next stoppage. So I think we have seen them playing into/taking space in either 50 to help there as a priority instead, something that isn't going to score as many points unless the opposition kicks them the ball and they mark it.


I'm wondering if anyone was bold enough to drop Gawn based on Grundy's match Friday night?
 

Seppo

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Certainly too early for me to be going the early crow, but wow, I was confident they wouldn't score close to popular expectation (didn't want to sound too crazed lol), but certainly not to that extent.

I ended up going with Martin and Hickey as R1/2 for the added (hopefully) JS the extra $300k spent provided compared to straight 3 rookies, could not be happier atm, but only 1 game in. Martin rucked most of the match with English playing forward and Hickey got very involved. I thought he was a better player than he has been able to show (eg not able to get ahead of McEvoy at the saints several years ago I think and NicNat at the Eagles when not injured more recently), I just hope he gets several weeks run at it and not rested/dropped for Sinclair. But the setup the swans used clearly worked last night.

Not sure if Grundy just struggled with a physical Stef or was perhaps also a bit rusty for Rd1, but he really looked to struggle for most of the match to get involved, other than tapping to the dogs mids.

Gawn was clearly playing more of a team role, sharing some ruck time with Jackson and looking to be a target up forward or push back. When he pushed back May/Lever dominated even more, when he pushed forward he drew enough attention to make it easy for the other fwds to impact. He struggled early with Meeks really taking it to him in the first quarter, but worked his way in as Meeks' impact wore off as the game went on. Not sure it's good for Gawn owners he got more involved as the match went on, or a bad sign it came against a first gamer who was probably gassed by qtr time.


Honestly I don't know what I would do if holding either/both, to get team value from trading 1 out, you need to make 2 trades minimum depending on cash pocketed on the downgrade and team structure, maybe 3, unless you straight upgrade a rookie which would have to be the way to go I suspect. Burning 2 (or even 4 trades if you hold both at this point) prior to Rd3 is possibly shooting yourself in the other foot, but could easily be a better outcome if anything close to this type of scoring for rucks continues. But as we always say, don't trade premos.


Not only do we have fewer stoppages for ruck contests and even repeat stoppages ruckman could get the odd tackle/pressure act in, but the ball is pinging around the field, especially form arc to arc much quicker. So there has been minimal opportunity for the rucks to get set a kick ahead of play (or even just make it a kick ahead) so that they can get involved in as many contests as we have seen in the past. It's kinda pointless rucks chasing the next contest because they won't likely make it/impact and if the ball gets turned over quick, they may not make the next stoppage. So I think we have seen them playing into/taking space in either 50 to help there as a priority instead, something that isn't going to score as many points unless the opposition kicks them the ball and they mark it.


I'm wondering if anyone was bold enough to drop Gawn based on Grundy's match Friday night?
Good on you mate, that was a massive call and if this holds you are in the running to win. Should be an exciting season and I’d love to see it.

For me, I’m not going to restructure. I think that trades are going to be at a premium this year and we just have to pick the most dependable premiums in a good age bracket. That was my call based on the 12-day rule now. I’d be willing to give up 5pts in average to be more likely to get 22 games out of a premium. I hated it, but it’s why I swapped Kelly to Merrett after having a think. Even if Gawn/Grundy average top 2 but it’s only a 105-110 average I’m probably wrong to start chucking trades away right now. I’ve made my bed and I’ve just got to deal with it.

I am curious though; if you’re right about ruck scoring and this is the new reality...what is your end game? Do you just leave Martin/Hickey in there until one of them misses a game? At the very least I’d think they’re the last two upgrades if none of the rucks can really hurt us? You’ve got to be barracking for Flynn/Meek/Hunter to all average 50 and get nobody up to the top tier of rucks. That would be the perfect storm for you.
 
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Dunny29

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Good on you mate, that was a massive call and if this holds you are in the running to win. Should be an exciting season and I’d love to see it.

For me, I’m not going to restructure. I think that trades are going to be at a premium this year and we just have to pick the most dependable premiums in a good age bracket. That was my call based on the 12-day rule now. I’d be willing to give up 5pts in average to be more likely to get 22 games out of a premium. I hated it, but it’s why I swapped Kelly to Merrett after having a think. Even if Gawn/Grundy average top 2 but it’s only a 105-110 average I’m probably wrong to start chucking trades away right now. I’ve made my bed and I’ve just got to deal with it.

I am curious though; if you’re right about ruck scoring and this is the new reality...what is your end game? Do you just leave Martin/Hickey in there until one of them misses a game? At the very least I’d think they’re the last two upgrades if none of the rucks can really hurt us? You’ve got to be barracking for Flynn/Meek/Hunter to all average 50 and get nobody up to the top tier of rucks. That would be the perfect storm for you.
Not restructuring is probably the right call, but can see why people would be thinking it and that it may end up being the way to go. Ideally you wait till this time next week and hope that they score higher and we aren't all panicking over a single rounds scores.

For my end game here, my thinking prior to the round starting was I'd hopefully get near $150k rise out of each of my 3 rucks, probably unlikely, but the reward to me was worth the risk), and swap them for the 2 highest scoring rucks around Rd 6-8, or later if things were going well (with Gawn/Grundy either having dropped ~$100k) or going for other/s scoring better. I started with $200k bank to make this easier, but may now be able to make a mid price correction in a week instead if my plan is on track. Now, based on Gawn/Grundy etc not averaging 115+ from here on, I may be able to turn Stef/Hickey/Flynn into the the 2 best rucks and perhaps even have some change. My hand will simply be forced when I have 2 not playing or it makes sense to. Still a long way to play out here though.

Ideally every time you trade someone out, they have risen $150k in value, I'm looking to double dip by gaining on the drop of who I bring in also. I've avoided Neale, Lloyd and a couple of others that may have a similar situation (perhaps not as pronounced).


This has allowed me to basically not have any rookies on field (Campbell at $189k would have been my lowest valued on field rookie if not for the rolling lockout and changes I made during so couldn't manoeuvre a locked DPP), so ended up with Warner's score instead which gave me a small bonus). I don't trust the rookies and combined with rolling lockouts I thought perhaps a couple of times before the byes I'd find myself thinking I have cover and then teamsheets come in for Sunday (after a few Saturday games) and the player I would've made to react/cover involves a player already locked out for the round with no great options remaining. So overall I have a similar number of premos as those with G&/orG (possibly even less if they went full guns n rookies), but think I will have a much easier time upgrading, and more decent scores on field to balance it out in the meantime with higher JS.

I have Flynn at R3, I'm obviously happy he scored well, but if he keep this up I lose some of my potential net gain as it would make getting rid of a G easier and most who don't have him will get him in at R3 if not R2 anyway.
 
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k-red17

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Rowell to:

Bailey Smith or McGrath that's the issue I face this week.

I need to dump Tyson if I pick one of the 2 above this will allow me to nab Ziebell who I stupidly took out on the eve of Round 1. Other option is go up and grab Boak but this means no Ziebell... Decisions...
 

Sky Valley

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I'd go McGrath over Smith and good to get Ziebell in.

I VC'd Grundy 135 but Danger only loophole. Can't decide whether to keep Danger or trade him with C going to Gawn.
 
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