Strength of Schedule 2016

TwentyThree

5-Time Premiership Coach
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Apr 26, 2015
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Analysis of the 2016 fixture, coming in 3 parts...

Strength of Schedule (SoS) can be a vital tool to help inform our SC selections. I've used this formula for a couple of years and have found it really helpful for selecting my starting team and trading throughout the season.

A couple of important points about this particular SoS;

- home and away records are taken into account (i.e. playing Fremantle at home is judged at 0.73 'difficulty' (1.0 being the highest 'difficulty')), but are only a 0.29 away 'difficulty' (-1.00 the lowest possible difficulty), thus differentiating the difficulty of playing an opponent home vs. away). For comparisons sake, at the other end of the ladder, Brisbane is a -0.33 at home and -0.58 away.
- a combined record of the previous three years are also accounted for, on a sliding scale of 3x (season 2015), 2x (2014) and x (2013).
- the 'lowest' score = the easiest draw

There are plenty of SoS models about and all are useful to varying extents. I hope the SCC community can add this to any other tools they use to analyze the fixture.

From rounds 1-11...

Port Adelaide -1.52 (easiest draw)
North Melbourne -1.24
Geelong -1.22
Collingwood -1.09
Western Bulldogs -0.95
Melbourne -0.68
Fremantle -0.5
Sydney -0.05
St.Kilda 0.38
GWS 0.43
=Gold Coast 0.45
=Hawthorn 0.45
Essendon 0.6
=Brisbane 0.82
=Richmond 0.82
Carlton 1.05
Adelaide 1.1
West Coast 1.21 (hardest draw)
 

TwentyThree

5-Time Premiership Coach
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2nd half of the year SoS ('easiest' fixture = the lowest number, at the top of this list)...

Essendon -1.51
Gold Coast -1.14
Brisbane -0.99
St.Kilda -0.89
Carlton -0.65
Fremantle -0.54
Geelong -0.2
Richmond -0.13
Hawthorn -0.11
West Coast 0
Collingwood 0.09
Sydney 0.47
Adelaide 0.59
Port Adelaide 0.64
Melbourne 0.86
GWS 0.95
North Melbourne 1.31
Western Bulldogs 1.44
 
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TwentyThree

5-Time Premiership Coach
Veterans
Apr 26, 2015
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SoS over the full season, easiest to hardest...

Geelong -1.42
Fremantle -1.04
Collingwood -1.00
Essendon -0.91
Port Adelaide -0.88
Gold Coast -0.69
St.Kilda -0.51
Brisbane -0.17
North Melbourne 0.07
Melbourne 0.18
Hawthorn 0.34
Carlton 0.4
Sydney 0.42
Western Bulldogs 0.49
Richmond 0.69
West Coast 1.21
GWS 1.38
Adelaide 1.69
 
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tabs

Senior Coach
Aug 10, 2015
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So the cats get an easy draw and Dangerfield.

They will burn down the cattery if they dont win this year

Thanks @TwentyThree great read
 

TwentyThree

5-Time Premiership Coach
Veterans
Apr 26, 2015
5,486
4,419
113
So the cats get an easy draw and Dangerfield.

They will burn down the cattery if they dont win this yer
Cats get a great run all year, Port too. I think this model strengthens the case for Goldy being a must-have. Bulldogs start with 7 straight at the Docklands and Freo get a great run considering they finished 1st after the h & a last year. The model really puts me off Crows (plus no Danger) and Eagles. Has made me think about no Dusty for the first time this PS too.
 
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tabs

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Aug 10, 2015
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Dusty gets a lot of ball and if he disposed of it better he would be first picked every year.

I always start Dusty in DT but not SC
 

Steve

Premiership Coach
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Geelong
So the cats get an easy draw and Dangerfield.

They will burn down the cattery if they dont win this year

Thanks @TwentyThree great read
We've had shocking draws the last few years, which is understandable. Last year was the year it finally caught up with us. Easy draws count for nothing in September though.
 
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