SC 2021 Pre Season Chat

Discussion in 'SuperCoach Discussion' started by Orallus_Maximus, Feb 5, 2021.

  1. Rupert

    Rupert 6-Time Premiership Coach
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    @Dunny29
    I agree with you on the over-priced bit. atm I haven't got any of Lloyd, Neale, Gawn, Grundy or Danger in my starting line-up. Although there are other considerations as well: injury for Neale and Danger, Cameron for Grundy
    As for cash generation: the non-Vic ones should be good to go from rnd.1 and I think that the Vic ones, if they are good enough, should make decent down-grade targets later on.

    It's a gamble, of course: that the uber premiums will drop enough in price to be affordable; that I'll have sufficient cash at the time they are affordable; that I don't lose too many points by not having started with them.
     
    #21 Rupert, Feb 25, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2021
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  2. Lowrider

    Lowrider Dual Premiership Coach
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    My initial thoughts were the same, but I'm starting to change my thinking a little bit.

    No doubt there's plenty of guys overpriced - but I think it's primarily midfielders. I'm looking to those who aren't as overpriced as others, guys who should probably get within 5 points of their 2020 average - Oliver, Macrae, Jelly, Titchell are guys that spring to mind.
    I'm also looking at the potential-upside guys - Walsh, Cripps, Simpkin, Rowell - but I'm also wary they may be a little overpriced for the same reason as the other midfielders are.

    The other lines, I'm happy to take the chance on the big guys, Gawn has a great draw first half and captaincy scores will be worth it. Lloyd is probably close to 115, so close enough to make him worth it. (but can go either way on him). The other defenders I think are fairly-priced. The big forwards are probably fairly-priced also.
    I think you just have to be judicious with who you pick.

    In terms of rookies, I don't think it's as dire as some say. There's plenty of guys who never got the chance to play last year who are cheap this year. The top draftees are poor, but there's some decent options lower down. And there's plenty of the cheap mid-price bracket ($200-260k) to make up any slack. I think we'll be fine enough for cash gen.
     
  3. Seppo

    Seppo Development Coach
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    I don't think you're looking too deeply into it; scoring was definitely affected by the changes last year. I suppose we just need to figure out exactly how and try to use it as a competitive advantage. For me, it looked like the rucks and the intercepting/rebounding defenders got the biggest scoring bumps. Outside of Lachie Neale I don't think the mid scoring was that much different than normal (a couple guys in the 120's and a large spread in the 110's)? I'd be interested to see someone prove/disprove that with some statistics, but unfortunately I'm just not that guy lol.

    So, I'm probably going to leave Lloyd off of my team. I'm just not picking a guy priced at 120 if I am not going to use him as a captaincy option and think his price might be slightly inflated. If I'm picking a defender who doesn't run through the mid this year it will be Luke McDonald bc of his discount from tagging the whole first half of last year. I'm waffling on that pick though. The defenders I'm locking in are the more traditional picks whom I'm sure are going through the midfield (Laird, Mills, Williams). If structure dictates I should pick a 4th premo, then McDonald comes into the conversation...Whitfield too if he recovers from the bruised liver.

    The rucks are a different proposition IMO. Yes they're inflated, but I still see Gawn/Grundy being the only two in the 120's (and even close to the 120's). I think Grundy might still have 5 points of value since he just didn't look himself last year and struggled mightily in the 2nd half. By all accounts he's back to his norm, so I'm locking him in. Gawn is the big question mark for me. I don't think he can do 140, but I'd need him to play every game at an average of 125 for it to be worth it. I'll probably back him in for that; playing every game is the concern there. I am unsure how many points Luke Jackson will take off of him, but I doubt too many.

    Staying on the rucks, I think ROB has improvement to be gained this year, but if I'm right and ruck scores were inflated I really only see him close to 110 this season. If he's giving up 15 pts/wk to Gawn and still has the same awkward bye, I think you can't pick him over Gawn. What would get interesting is if Rowan Marshall or somebody like Sean Darcy end up with a setback. If you can get 6 games out of a 2nd-ruck Paul Hunter or a 1st-ruck Meeks...then I think you'd be crazy not to roll with that guy at R3 and Flynn at R2. I just think a 23-yr-old starting ruck at $123k has to go on field if you have the option. You can't just sit a guy who's going to score 75-80, priced that low, on your bench and truly have an effectively selected team. I would not, however, put him on ground if you're using R3 as a loophole (just wanted to clarify I still think that would be dumb). Yes, you're giving up a captaincy option in Gawn, but in that scenario you have 75pts on ground and almost $630k to spend elsewhere.

    I'm not picking Danger because I have decided I'm not picking guys over 30. Last year with the condensed schedule I lowered that age cap to 27 and it worked out, so maybe I've got some confirmation bias in having an age rule this year. I just think it's playing the percentages and that's what we should be doing if we want to go after overall ranking. In the forward line Caldwell sure made my thinking even more complicated by leading Essendon in CBA's. I don't think you can go past him if McGrath is back for the only preseason game and he is still in the first-choice midfield. At $348k in the FWD line I'd think even a 90-averaging yearlong F6 is a massive win.

    As far as gun and rookies...I think it's a great way to finish top 2k and never have a chance at winning. IMO you have got to find 2-3 true value picks to compete, especially this year with some inflated pricing. There's more than one way to skin a cat; everyone always talks about how not having certain guys can wreck you, but I went without Lloyd and Neale all last year and finished 218. (disclaimer: I did pick a very expensive Neale up for the last 2 weeks of the year and it turned out to be super dumb; I need to improve my in-season trading and I will) You just have to make efficient use of your salary cap and you'll be there at the end.

    Sorry for the long post but there was a lot to unpack there!
     
  4. Lowrider

    Lowrider Dual Premiership Coach
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    That's my cue!

    Number of players averaging 120+ : 115-120 : 110-115

    2017 - 2 : 1 : 7
    2018 - 4 : 2 : 4
    2019 - 4 : 2 : 6
    2020 - 5 : 4 : 11

    Effectively double what we've seen in recent seasons - the only season that rivals it is 2012.
     
  5. Seppo

    Seppo Development Coach
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    Interesting, thank you! I stand corrected.

    So now my question becomes "are the majority of the inflated scores actually in the mids?". I think you asserted that a couple posts back, but I'm still questioning (sorry, I am a pain) and I think it's worth wrapping our heads around it.

    Looking at last year's rankings I suppose the majority of the 110+ inflated scores are midfielders. The non mids above 110 were Gawn, Grundy, Lloyd, Howe, Goldstein, and Nic Nat (I suppose Danger too, but he was mid-only last year). But, I think that was always going to be the case since the majority of guys above 105 were always mids.

    Now I'm looking at the scores from last year in the bracket from 95-110. It sure appears there are an absolute boatload of rucks and defenders in there. I mean rucks like Stanley, English, and Lycett. I count 15 (!!!) defenders in that bracket. I know the guys on the podcast were talking about there being so many viable defender options...but maybe that is a red herring. If guys like Jayden Short, Blicavs, and Haynes are all up there...do we really think that is repeatable across the whole backline? Without any statistics to back it up, I think we've got to be considering some serious overpricing in the backline premiums.

    This has reinforced my thinking of only picking backline guys who are legitimately getting midfield time this year. Also in your previous post, you mentioned there were a lot of good $200k+ rookie options. I definitely see that as well, but if we're going to pick them then we HAVE TO find value elsewhere if all the top-tier premos are overpriced. Otherwise we'll end up starting 9-10 premos and 5-6 $200-$250k guys. We may have lucked out this year since there are so many future A-grader mids in the $550-$450k range (Walsh, McGrath, Simpkin, Rowell, Taranto). Cripps is also down there. It might be the play to pick 3-4 out of those 6 guys.

    I usually want to pick 4 dead-set captaincy options, but this convo has me leaning towards going 3 and looking for value elsewhere. I kind of like the idea of Gawn/Grundy/Kelly and then picking a balanced, value-type of team behind them. If everyone's overpriced then guns/rookies probably leads to too much rookie exposure on ground. (also I just can't go past Kelly with a full preseason, but that's a separate topic)
     
  6. Lowrider

    Lowrider Dual Premiership Coach
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    Haven't done the stats myself (can do though). But, someone did (Freako maybe?). Turned out midfield went up around 7-9 points on average. Forwards went down a similar amount which is where those points came from. Defenders and rucks were largely unchanged.

    The distribution changed substantially. There were a lot more high scores last year, but also the lower scores were lower. Likewise the averages reflected that also.
     
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  7. Rupert

    Rupert 6-Time Premiership Coach
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    A stat you might find interesting.
    When last year's SC scoring is compared to the previous 5 years:
    no of players averaging 102 or more - up by 56%
    no of players averaging 48 or less - up by 17%

    I'm afraid I don't have the breakdown by position.
     
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  8. Seppo

    Seppo Development Coach
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    Hmmmmmm...so every premo is probably a bit overpriced, but the midfield premos even more so. Probably lends some credence to looking for value in the mid premos, using Gawn/Grundy as the main captaincy options, and going heavier in the either or both of the fwd/def premium selection. Of course, all this could be moot if rookie selection forces our hand one way or the other lol.

    Thanks for the insight!
     
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  9. RichardC89

    RichardC89 Aspiring Coach
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    Anybody going in with Paddy Dow? Been named on ball tomorrow for Carlton, I’ll definitely be watching that very closely...

    This time next week, I can see myself liking him more than Ziebell. Still not sold on Jack!
     
  10. Bennysmac

    Bennysmac Member

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    After carltons practice game last week when Dow played out of his skin, it will be hard to pass on him after tonight's game if he plays well again.
     
  11. haemorrhoidjoe

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    On that showing, it's difficult to judge. The entire Carlton midfield played like poo.
     
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  12. alrighty then

    alrighty then Assistant Coach
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    Anyone pivoting after seeing the games this weekend and some of the roles/performances?
     
  13. GoodFaNuffinLosers

    GoodFaNuffinLosers Queenslander & Supercoach Tragic
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    Yes, I have... WAY TOO MUCH !!!
     
  14. Lowrider

    Lowrider Dual Premiership Coach
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    L.McDonald has been sacked - replaced with Short which seemed an obvious knee-jerk reaction!!!

    I also had Sidebottom - so have had to drop him also
     
  15. GoodFaNuffinLosers

    GoodFaNuffinLosers Queenslander & Supercoach Tragic
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    Best type of reaction there is, I had several this weekend including McDonald to Short
     
  16. Steve

    Steve Premiership Coach
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    Way too many changes for me off the weekend's games. It's so hard to judge off just one game.

    Do we load up on defenders? The new rules seem to play right into the hands of rebounders and kickout takers so much. It's not even so much a matter of going full premo but looking for the right role players. Guys like Hayden Young, Clark (JS??), Jiath are screaming to be picked, but can you have 3 x 200k defenders on top of 3 x 200k forwards? It's such an awkward year.
     
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  17. haemorrhoidjoe

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    I'd go one of those guys. Of the three I think Clark is the best option. Jiath looked amazing but I think his JS is sketchy. Scrimshaw to come back into the side and he's up against Greaves. Having said that, he'll probably be the first choice along with Scrimshaw. Not sure he'll be clunking that many intercept marks though and is prone to clangers. But geez he looks promising.

    Young looks ok too but Ryan will come back and will probably take most of the kick ins. I think he will average a solid 75. At his price he needs to do more. If he were 200k, he'd be a monty.
     
  18. alrighty then

    alrighty then Assistant Coach
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    After all the weekend games, Here are some of my current thoughts:

    - I'm putting Dunkley in my forward line. I think a lot of the premium/potential breakout picks come with risk and I think if Dunkley resorts back to his old position of mid/fwd where he averaged 116, there is no reason why he can't bump his avg. up from the 102 last year. Plus they brought in Stef for the ruck work.

    - Regarding the bulldogs, I know they said on the podcast that they are avoiding them all together due to unknowns, but geeeeeeezzz Bont looked good. He is currently fighting with Merrett, Cripps, Neale, Oliver, Petracca for 3 of the spots in my midfield.

    - Clearly some half backs are benefitting with the new man on the mark rule, and also the player taking kick ins can be super valuable this year with the extra space. It's so annoying we only have the 1 week sample size but Short, C. Daniel, Ridley, May all intrigued from the premium side and for the cheapies - J. Clark, H. Young, Jiath, Hind, Ziebell all looked to benefit from this. How many of these guys on each price level and position to choose will be very interesting.

    - I find myself considering De Goey, Butters, Caldwell, maybe Tom Phillips as a 3rd fwd. if my structure permits me to. I like how De Goey played Mid featuring fwd rather than the opposite (Adams said he will be primarily mid this year - intriguing at the least). Butters looks to be playing out of the centre square this year and Caldwell just looks to have 'it'. He makes all around him better, doesn't mess up and they are putting him right on the ball (yes i'm an Essendon fan).

    Premiums Mids that look in good form

    - I'm pretty confident Zac Merrett will have a great year this year. Looks in form.
    - BONT. Looks great
    - Steele looked great, expect him to continue.
    - Neale got going in that 2nd half and the pre-season doesn't worry me.
    - Macrae
    - Taranto, Josh Kelly (only going in with 1 of the 2)
    - Rowell (got through and back to contested self)
    - Fyfe

    Premiums I'm re-considering

    Cripps - Just didn't dominate but why should he in the pre-season? Just so cheap and history suggests to pick him but it wasn't the best audition. I'll probably still ride him based on his price and potential.
    Mills - I know he is playing full time mid, but will that improve his scoring? Unsure and with the Shorts, Daniels, Ridleys all maybe benefiting from this new role, I'm re-considering.
    Sam Walsh - With Zac out, maybe we can afford to go Cripps and Walsh? Would have been nice to see them both score high in the practice match.

    Players not mentioned that caught my eye and I wouldn't be surprised if they improved a lot this year:
    - Sam Draper, Aliir Aliir, Jarrod Berry, Sam Walsh, Jye Simpkin, Parish, Perryman

    Rookies locked in if selected

    Lachie Jones, Highmore, Briggs, Powell, Downie, Gulden, Bruhn, B. Campbell, C. Warner, Rowe, Bergman, Waterman, Brockman, A. Scott, Koschitzke

    In Summary

    No idea what exactly my team will look like in a week lol. I still have 3 premium mid spots up for grabs between Merrett, Cripps, Bont, Neale, Oliver, Petracca and Macrae. Also, looks like I can only afford J Clark or Daniher. Currently don't have the money for a 350k-400k F3 that could breakout to be premium but structure will determine that. Looking like loading up in defence and going in with 2 or so premium Fwds, with only 1-2 of the 200k guys up there.
     
  19. Seppo

    Seppo Development Coach
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    I tell you what...after the preseason I cleared my team and then started from scratch (I highly recommend doing this a few times before you hit lockout). Importantly, I picked all the rookies I could first and then filled out the rest of my team. Surprisingly, I ended up very heavy premo in the midfield (6). And the cheapest of those premos was Josh Kelly. Only 2 midpricers in Taranto and De Goey. De Goey was my F1 and Ziebell F2, so almost no cash spent up there. Gawn/Grundy as well.

    Might sacrifice a few points early on, but I just think you have to interrupt your upgrade cadence early on to get in those 115+ players in the midfield because they really don't drop far enough to do an easy 1up/1down. Doesn't matter if they're over priced by 5pts and average 115, they'll still be hard to trade in. I also don't see too many mid-only rookies showing up early on. If they do, my structure will change. I'm pretty happy trading very hard in the forward and backlines straight through the byes to complete my team as fast as possible.

    A couple notes. Do I want De Goey in my team? Nope. But, on the podcast, the guys said "5th-6th year player with a boatload of potential and a role change into the mids is the best type of breakout pick". Then they said "Mills". I agree for sure...but I also thought "De Goey" at the same time. Also, I am not buying this bonkers scoring from defenders in the preseason. I just didn't see much tackling pressure and if I'm wrong then I will not win the comp and I'm fine with that bet lol.
     
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  20. Orallus_Maximus

    Orallus_Maximus Development Coach
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    With Williams being out for Round 1, are people still considering him for starting teams?
     

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